Here's a sketch of some demographic and geopolitical implications of water shortages in Asian countries that receive much of their water from Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau glaciers.
Climate scientists call the Himalayan mountain range and the adjoining Tibetan Plateau "the third pole" because the region holds the third largest ice supply on the planet.
The melt waters of this area drain through 10 of the largest rivers in Asia and the basins are home to more than 1.3 billion people.
This simplified map shows the three largest glacial fed rivers of the region, the Indus, the largest river in Pakistan, the Ganges of India, and the Brahmaputra in China. China is upstream from India. India is upstream from Pakistan.
This map of the rivers of India, Nepal, Pakistan, and China, a portion of China anyway, where you can see the blue rivers running toward the southeast, plus portions of Afghanistan and Mongolia, gives you a sense of how important glacially-fed rivers are to Asia. The lack of surface runoff in the lowlands caused by drought obviously affects river volume as well, and drought has persisted in western Nepal for two years, as the winter monsoons have failed.
Pradeep Mool of International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Nepal, said studies show that most glaciers in the Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau have been shrinking at accelerated rates in recent decades and most Valley glaciers too are retreating.
"Vertical shift of up to 100m has been recorded in the last 50 years with glacier terminus retreat rates of 50m per year for certain glaciers. This is evidence that glacier trucks and glaciers below 5,000m will disappear by end of this century," Mool said.
There's a climate conference in Kashmir, now, and they're looking at glacier loss.
Topping the list is the Kolahai glacier, which has retreated by 18% since 1976. "From 13.87 square km it is now 11.24 sq km. Plus the annual rate of retreat is 0.08 sq km, which is quite high," said Dr Shakeel Ramshoo, convener of the working group, Climate Change Research, Kashmir University. What is more alarming is the retreat of the glacialised area of Suru. It used to be 72 sq km in area 40 years back and has shrunk by 16.43%. Dozens of small glaciers of Suru have already disappeared.
"The average increase in temperature in Kashmir is higher than the global average. Over the last century, the global average increase in temperature is 0.72°C, while for Kashmir it is 1°C. Particularly our winter temperature is showing greater increase," Dr Ramshoo said. University of Kashmir vice-chancellor Prof Riyaz Punjabi said there were indicators suggesting climate change as Kashmir has lost a season called Sont Kaal (small season before spring).
I linked the Kashmir article partly because Kashmir is a contested region between India and Pakistan. Pakistan's Indus River feeds from Kashmiri glaciers.
The rivers of the the Tibetan Plateau are laden with the karma of Chinese incursion. And now a planned impoundment/diversion scheme for the Brahmaputra.
Yao Tandong, one of China's leading glacier experts and director of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Research Institute of CAS, said,
"Glaciers on the plateau show warming has been abrupt and exceptional. It is warmer now than at any time during the past 2,000 years," Yao said.
The Brahmaputra drains through India from Tibet and China, but China is planning on damming and diverting it. This is a seminal skirmish in the inevitable water wars to come.
Both countries will be stressed.
Grail Research has just released a study (pdf) on water shortages across the world. Fresh water is becoming increasingly scarce, and in countries like India and China that are rapidly growing, the scarcity will hit hardest as the culture moves towards consumerism. The study's findings illustrate how current reserves must be managed more effectively if scarcity is to be mitigated, but at the current rate, an estimated 3 billion people will live below the water stress threshold by 2025.
By 2025, India, China and select countries in Europe and Africa will face water scarcity if adequate and sustainable water management initiatives are not implemented, and an estimated 3 Billion people will be living below the water stress threshold.
By 2050, per capita water availability in India is expected to drop by about 44% due to growing populations and higher demand, as well as higher pollution levels.
For little Nepal it's not just glacial melting, it's drought. It's a lousy situation for this country that's jammed up against the mountains. Raging rivers run through steep canyons, and is not easily accessed, much less used for gravity drainage ditches, and in western Nepal the hill people depend on rainfall for agriculture. Only half the population of Nepal has running water in their household, and this number is artificial because only Kathmandu and a few other cities have water "systems". Kathmandu public water is shrinking in supply and of pretty sketchy quality. There's talk of piping river water to the Kathmandu basin.
The 2008/2009 winter drought - one of the worst in the country’s history - has destroyed crops across Nepal, with wheat and barley production reduced by 14 and 17 percent respectively. Crop yields in some districts in Mid- and Far-Western Nepal – which received less than 50 percent of average rainfall during the period from November 2008 to February 2009 - have dropped by more than half.
The report estimates that 40 of the 75 districts are food deficit because of the drought and also expresses serious concerns about the nutrition situation across Nepal. Half of children under the age of five in these districts are stunted, while 39 percent of children are underweight and 13 percent are severely malnourished.
From the "third pole" link:
The scientists say the glacier retreat in the Himalayas results from precipitation decrease in combination with temperature increase. Glacier shrinkage will speed up if climatic warming and drying continues. In fact, the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 states that in the coming decades, many glaciers in the region will retreat, while smaller ones will disappear altogether. So it is reasonable to conclude that with a two per cent increase by 2050, 35 per cent of the present glaciers will disappear and run off will increase, peaking between 2030 and 2050.
Let's keep this voice of action alive.
Cross posted at DK Green Roots
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