With six weeks before international talks at Copenhagen, expressions of both optimism and pessimism can be found everywhere. A Plan B is beginning to emerge. It "almost certainly" doesn't include President Obama at Copenhagen, by his choice. It may involve a weak bill being introduced by Representative Ed Markey.
Details below the fold along with a rant regarding major American newspapers.
First, the Times of London reports that "President Obama will almost certainly not travel to the Copenhagen climate change summit in December and may instead use his Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech to set out US environmental goals."
The White House confirmed that the President would be in Oslo to accept the prize, but a source close to the Administration said it was "hard to see the benefit" of his going to Copenhagen if there was no comprehensive deal for him to close or sign. Another expert, who did not want to be named, said he would be "really, really shocked" if Mr Obama went to Copenhagen, adding that European hopes about the power of his Administration to transform the climate change debate in a matter of months bore little relation to reality. The comprehensive climate change treaty that for years has been the goal of the Copenhagen conference was now an "unrealistic" prospect, Yvo de Boer, the UN official guiding the process, said last week.
Although the Times blames China and India, the Guardian, another British newspaper, has a different take: "It's not India and China that threaten the success of a new climate change treaty, but senators of coal-producing US states."
So, what's a political leader on environmental issues to do when Republicans' sole goal is to hinder, stall, and delay hearings on the Kerry-Boxer bill? Set up a Plan B. The BBC News reports that legislators from 16 major economies met yesterday and today in Copenhagen "to seek consensus on a raft of climate-related policies ahead of December talks in Copenhagen. The 120 delegates believe that the policies could address 70% of the emissions cuts necessary before 2020."
The group, Global Legislators Organisation for a Balanced Environment (Globe), is headed by Ed Markey (D-MA) of Waxman-Markey fame, Chairman Wang Guangtao of the Chinese National People’s Congress, and Lord Michael Jay of the British Parliament. I found information on the negotiations at the Times of India online site, which reports:
The Wang-Markey principles outline energy standards, forestry preservation, and renewable energy that could see 70 per cent of the emissions cuts needed by 2020 if the global average temperature rise is to be limited to 2 degrees Celsius. They include standardized action on building and appliance standards; renewable energy; vehicle fuel and efficiency standards; and forestry. Such coordinated action – especially in areas like domestic, transportation and industrial energy efficiency – will result in cost savings and increased competitiveness, they say.
Coordinated action on appliance and fuel standards will create huge economies of scale, sending a strong "market signal". Together, it is hoped that these actions will drive the move to a global low carbon economy.
As a political matter, Markey would almost have to introduce the GLOBE proposals as a separate piece of legislation. The GLOBE proposals fall short of a flat-out cap on carbon emissions, and thus appear even weaker than Kerry-Boxer and Waxman-Markey. Some of the GLOBE proposals could be handled by the Environmental Protection Agency, but most would require legislation. The Senate Energy & Natural Resources Committee has already passed a renewable energy bill, ACELA, requiring that 15% of United States' electricity come from renewable resources, although it's generally considered weak. It's highly unlikely that the GLOBE proposals could be passed before the Copenhagen meeting.
Separately, please notice the sources for all of the news in this story. The New York Times and Los Angeles Times have nothing. The Boston Globe has no information on what Representative Markey of the Boston area has been doing in Copenhagen with an organization called GLOBE.