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Over the past months, I've profiled every House race (all 435).  It took me 19 diaries.

In this diary, I go through those and pick out the races I thought might be competitive. This is part 5, the finale.

PA-06  The incumbent Jim Gerlach (R) is retiring to run for governon.  Obama won easily here (58-41).  Two Democrats (Doug Pike and Manan Trivedi) are running as are two Republicans (Curt Schader and Ryan Costello).  The Democrats have a natural edge here, and have also raised more money, but it's early yet.

PA-07 Here the incumbent, Joe Sestak, is a Democrat and is retiring to run for Senate.  The Democrat (Bryan Lentz) and Republican (Pat Meehan) have each raised about $200K. Obama won 56-43, so the edge has to go to the Democrats, but it's not a sure thing.

PA-10 Chris Carney (D) is the incumbent; he was first elected in 2006, and won fairly easily in 2008.  Still, this is a Republican district (McCain won, 53-45).  His opponent is Christopher Bain.  Carney has raised over $500K, I have no info on Bain.  

PA-16 Joe Pitts (R) is the incumbent.  He's won easily for years, but he has a more organized opponent this time in Lois Herr.  Obama came close here.  Still, this is probably not likely to switch.

TX-10 Michael McCaul (R) is the incumbent.  He's won reasonably easily in the past, and this is a Republican district; but the large Latino population is shifting to the Democrats.  His opponent, Jack McDonald, has actually out-raised him ($900 K to $700 K).

TX-23 The incumbent here is Ciro Rodriguez (D), first elected to this district in 2006 (but there's a complex history).  He won fairly easily in 2008, and probably will do so again.  He's raised $689K and his opponent Quico Canseco, has raised very little.  Still, Obama barely won here, and this time, in this heavily Latino district, both candidates are Latino.

VA-01 The incumbent is Robert Whitman (R), first elected in 2007.  He won very easily in 2008, but Obama came very close here.  Two Democrats are running, the wonderfully-named Krystal Ball and Scott Robinson. I have no fundraising info.

VA-02  Glenn Nye (D) is the freshman incumbent.  He won 52-48 in 2008, Obama won narrowly but Bush won easily.  Nye has easily outraised both of his potential opponents. As the incumbent, he will be hard to oust.

VA-05 Thomas Periello (D) is the incumbent, he's a freshman and he won by less than 1,000 votes in 2008.  Several Republicans are vying to run against him.  But he's raised $700 K and has the incumbency.  Not safe, but not the most vulnerable.

WA-08  The incumbent is Dave Reichert (R).  He's had close elections every time, not winning with more than 54%.  Obama won easily here.  Two Democrats are running, but the main one seems to be Suzan DelBene.  This could be close.

WI-08 The incumbent here is Steve Kagen (D) first elected in 2006, and winning closely both times.  Obama won here, but so did Bush. Two Republicans (Reid Ribble and Marc Savard) are running, Kagen has easily outraised both of them.


Originally posted to plf515 on Tue Oct 27, 2009 at 10:09 AM PDT.

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