Skip to main content

To quote Doug Wilder: The State of Virginia is not going to fall into the ocean:

Here is my prediction: McDonell will win with maybe a 10+ point lead. The Conservatives will take this as a mandate and try to turn reject the stimulus, opt out of the Public Option (assumes it passes) initiate a bunch of religious right initiatives:
This will enrage the young people and Progressives in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Suddenly, McDonnell will become the issue right in time for 2010. Voter registration and turnout will increase in 2010. You can always count on Republicans to overplay their hand.  
Like I said: Two steps forward one step back.

Originally posted to Jamesleo on Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 12:40 PM PDT.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (6+ / 0-)

    a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

    by Jamesleo on Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 12:40:08 PM PDT

  •  I think it will take ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Liberalindependent28

    a 2012 wipe-out for the GOP to change gears.

    Anything near par in 2010 will embolden them to keep up the same garbage.

    klaatu barada nikto

    by JohnGor0 on Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 12:45:53 PM PDT

  •  As opposed to predicting the Past? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Liberalindependent28

    Notice: This Comment © 2009 ROGNM

    by ROGNM on Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 12:46:21 PM PDT

  •  You might be right (6+ / 0-)

    The thing is this will be twice that Creigh Deeds has run a state-wide campaign and failed miserably. Guy should stick to Bath County I think.

    What I would really like to see is more Democrats in the General Assembly more than anything right now, because I am sick and damn tired of the Republicans stalling fixing our fucking transportation system because they treat any tax increase like it's the Plague.

    "OMG OMG OMG NO NEW TAXES NO TAXES EVER FOR ANYTHING!"

    God I wish I could shoot every single one of them who says something like that. I fail to understand it.

    I don't believe that the cliche old liberal idea of "tax and spend" can solve every problem, be it statewide or nationally, but I am of the opinion that if new taxes would lead to better services for the public then those are probably good taxes.

    I would gladly pay more out of pocket, out of paycheck, at the store, wherever if it meant they could finally give us a Third Crossing, for example.

    The people, across the spectrum want it fixed. Yet the Delegates and Senators seem to prefer gridlock on the roads and in the statehouses.

    That's bullshit and it needs to end.

  •  GOP overplays their hand (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Liberalindependent28

    They always have and always will. Lets remember that the constituency that is for Obama is still for Obama.  They are not for Deeds (Republican Lite) Its seems that Virginia is two states in one with Northern Virginia that  demographically resembles any
    progressive regions with colleges, high tech and young people (progressive) and Southern Virginia which resembles the "Old South" Then there is Hampton Roads which is predominately African American and tends Democrat

    a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

    by Jamesleo on Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 12:50:28 PM PDT

    •  NoVa isn't all that Progressive (0+ / 0-)

      it is well off suburbs, sort of like Westchester County, NY. Remember Cucinelli lives in Fairfax County and McDonnell grew up in NoVa!

      All my IP addresses have been banned from Redstate.com.

      by charliehall on Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 06:19:13 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Wealth is pretty poor political barometer (0+ / 0-)

        Across the border from NoVa you have Montgomery County, Maryland, which has leaned so far left for so long that it would make Glenn Beck cry.

        NoVa is pretty darned progressive, all things considered, and even more so when compared to the rest of the state. Both socially and politically it falls into the same orbit as the rest of large DC metropolitan area (arguably extending as far north as Baltimore). Maryland has the same problem: the central corridor is an entirely different world from the western panhandle and the eastern shore. It's just not as noticeable because there because the population of Maryland is much more heavily concentrated in the central, "blue" corridor (courtesy the Washington/Baltimore corridor), whereas Virginia's population is more evenly divided between regions with very different political leanings.

        "Intellectually, the Republican idea deserves the tolerance and respect one gives to the dead." - H.P. Lovecraft, 1936

        by seancdaug on Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 10:03:11 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Shouldn't this be a comment in the Open-Thread? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Liberalindependent28
  •  I am sorry but that is great if (4+ / 0-)

    you're well off and comfortable. Wilder has the luxury of being philosophical like that because he knows that, whatever happens, he will be financially comfortable and okay. He's not gay--he's not going to have to deal with an administration that overturns Kaine's anti-discrimination executive order.

    This will enrage the young people and Progressives in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Suddenly, McDonnell will become the issue right in time for 2010. Voter registration and turnout will increase in 2010. You can always count on Republicans to overplay their hand.  
    Like I said: Two steps forward one step back.

    It's this martyrdom liberalism thinking that resulted in Nader throwing the election to Bush in 2000. It was so great to have to wait six years for the dynamics to change. It was so great for all those who suffered.

    And so what if McDonnell is the issue in 2010? He never has to run again. What's even scary is that Ken Cuccinelli may very well win the Attorney General's race. And he will launch an ideological crusade.

    •  Thats exactly what will hapen (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Liberalindependent28

      And so what if McDonnell is the issue in 2010? He never has to run again. What's even scary is that Ken Cuccinelli may very well win the Attorney General's race. And he will launch an ideological crusade.

      I believe thats what will happen. I am sure the African Americans in Hampton Roads have more than their stories of discrimination. I had a run in with the Virginia's finest. They seem  pleasant but I am white and driving while black is a crime.
      I am sorry that Craid Deeds ran such an uninspiring  campaign but remember Harry Truman "When a Republican runs against a Republican, the Republican wins.

      a long habit of not thinking a thing WRONG, gives it a superficial appearance of being RIGHT, and raises at first a formidable outcry in defense of custom.

      by Jamesleo on Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 01:14:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  If we can get ENDA passed (0+ / 0-)

      McDonnell and Cuccinnelli can have their shitshow in Richmond and it won't matter.  Well theoretically anyway.  I have a feeling that Cuccinelli and McDonnell will probably sue to get that law overturned.  Lol.  

      I think what bothers me the most about Cuccinelli is that if he had said what he said about gays about any other group, he'd be DOA right now as a candidate.  Well maybe not in Alabama or Missisippi or Utah or Alaska or someplace horrible like that.  But in most states, in a state like Virginia, he'd be gone and done.  But his homophobic rantings might not mean much and be defended as "he's entitled to have an opinion."  

  •  McDonnell will behave (3+ / 0-)

    I think he will play moderate until he sees how the 2010 elections turn out. If he has any future plans senator or white house he will have to stay moderate.

  •  The Independents Are Really Dumb (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Liberalindependent28

    in Virginia.  Most independent women are more liberal when it comes to social programs, and if they vote for McDonnell they are in for a very rude awakening.  

    •  I blame Deeds and the Democrats for that (3+ / 0-)

      They ran a bad campaign. Ironically it is very similar to the pathetic campaign that KKT ran in 2002.

      •  No. KKT was in a class by herself. (2+ / 0-)
        •  I was mostly out-of-state during the MD '02 race (0+ / 0-)

          I was off in Ohio in college at the time, though I cast my absentee ballot for KKT. But I still hear family members talk incredulously about the sheer comic-folly ineptitude of that campaign. And I remember watching the election returns in my dorm in Oberlin, and having to endure the shocked reactions of my fellow students that Maryland had elected its first Republican governor since Agnew.

          I mean, sure, Glendenning wasn't wildly popular by the end of his term, but that was nothing compared to Marvin Mandel, who spent the last year of his term in jail for racketeering. That didn't stop a Democrat from winning afterwards, so I'm inclined to believe that KKT managed to blow her chances entirely on her own.

          "Intellectually, the Republican idea deserves the tolerance and respect one gives to the dead." - H.P. Lovecraft, 1936

          by seancdaug on Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 10:20:57 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  i'm still praying he does not win (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Liberalindependent28

    i have spoke with a lot of folks here in southside va they are not supporting him they are voting for deeds. they are afraid of him. i do not believe al the hard work will slip away to the rinos.  

  •  Thou Shall Not Count Chickens.. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Liberalindependent28

    Beforeth they hatch. I'm not conceding until they first vote and second count the votes.

  •  When will states decide on Public Option? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Liberalindependent28

    I think it will be well after 2010, maybe even after 2012 but I'm far from sure, any real experts out there?

    Also, I think McDonnell wins by over 15 points.

    www.dcforobama.com Our work is not over! Giving back to the grassroots.

    by howardpark on Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 03:17:33 PM PDT

  •  I'm furious with Deeds (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tidalwave1

    for handing the Commonwealth back to a bigoted Republican.  This was a lousy, timid campaign that ran away Democratic strengths.  

    Life is good. Injustice? Not so much.

    by westyny on Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 04:32:28 PM PDT

  •  Dems still control VA Senate 21-19 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SoCalLiberal

    And the next Senate elections are in 2011 after redistricting.

    All my IP addresses have been banned from Redstate.com.

    by charliehall on Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 06:21:00 PM PDT

  •  Here's what I don't understand (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dufffbeer

    Virginia has changed politically.  It started this decade with Mark Warner's election in 2001 and has continued with the increasing development of Northern Virginia.  We all focused on Ohio and Pennsylvania as key swing states in the 2008 election.  There was some nervousness that Obama might not be able to win them because he had performed so poorly there in the primaries against Hillary Clinton.  It didn't pan out, he won both.  However, he only won Ohio by 4% (despite the early call) and he only won Florida by 3% (which did impress me).  That's a 6% swing in Ohio and an 8% swing in Florida from the 2004 elections.  

    Virginia on the other hand, Obama won by a solid 7% margin, almost matching his nationwide popular vote 8% victory.  From 2004, that is a massive 16% swing.  I was thrilled when he won but I knew Virginia would be a target for Democrats in 2008 and was a winnable state.  So I was not shocked either.  Now as McDonnell appears headed to victory, I can't help but wonder what's going on.  Do Virginians simply not vote in non-presidential elections?  Is Creigh Deeds that bad of a candidate?  Is the Democratic Party of Virginia in far worse shape than was thought?  Is this a sign of conservative resurgence?  

    Now I see some have compared Creigh Deeds and his gubernatorial run to that of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend in Maryland in the 2002 gubernatorial race.  There's a difference though.  Maryland had elected Democratic governors dating back to 1970.  Townsend did not even win a contested primary, she was handed a nomination.  Maryland also has a heavily Democratic state legislature.  Electing a Republican offered to balance things.  Virginia has none of the Maryland qualities.  

    Of course there is another possibility and that is that the voters are simply not being polled properly.  It's been repeatedly pointed out that these polls show more voters who voted for McCain than Obama by a fairly wide margin.  That said, even if the polls were overestimating the level of support McDonnell has, his lead is large enough that it's pretty much unquestioned.  Of those polled, more Obama voters are supporting McDonnell than McCain voters are supporting McDonnell.  

    •  "Prince Charmless vs Mack the Knife" (0+ / 0-)

      Deeds HAS run that lousy a campaign, and the Democratic Party of Virginia IS in worse shape than most people (even IN Virginia) realize.

      Being the sole survivor of a three-way shootout (especially when the reason for survival was diving into a hole till the shooting stopped) doesn't make a good candidate or a good start to a campaign.

      Fixating obsessively on the #1 spot on the ticket, while completely ignoring and neglecting the other races, is another way to drive a campaign into the toilet. Mack the Knife is SUCH bad news that all efforts should have been made to ensure that even IF he won, he would be hobbled by a Democratic Lt. Governor and AG.

      This is all stupidly obvious stuff that the Democratic Party of Virginia just could not see.

      I haven't even heard a squeak about the guy who is trying to unseat Bad News Bev Sherwood - there actually IS someone running against her, and nobody mentions anything about it!

      Shitty way to run a campaign, and they will deserve to lose. Unfortunately the people of Virginia don't deserve the screwing we're going to get. :P

      If it's
      Not your body
      Then it's
      Not your choice
      AND it's
      None of your damn business!

      by TheOtherMaven on Sat Oct 31, 2009 at 07:01:43 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  yeah it is really stupid (0+ / 0-)

    that the dems could not come up with anyone stronger than Deeds.  He came out looking and sounding weak the face of McD's campaign and I will go and vote for him - praying that NVA and Norfolk areas stand up and say WTF to McD but I am not holding my breath.

    The Dems needed to give a better candidate if they wanted to win VA....there are too many conservative wing nuts here to come off weak and conflicted.

    McD is scary and the repug att gen race is even scarier.    

    But many people don't think we have a choice

    yet polls can be wrong and it is not over until it is over.......

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site