I realize it's a strange title, and an even stranger theory, but bear with me a minute. If I'm completely wrong, please let me know. I'm more than willing to accept it if everyone thinks I'm all wet. I would like to let everyone reading this know beforehand that there won't be any links or anything like that. This is strictly my own pondering on the subject. Follow me below the fold for more.
So, by now, everyone knows that Scozzafava has dropped out of the race. First, it's a shame we've lost one of the greatest names ever to be held by a politician. Beyond that, it leaves us with a very interesting proposition. On Election Night, it is entirely possible that a candidate from a third party who doesn't even live in the district could be the new Representative for NY-23. So let's start by looking at what we get if we win.
If the Democrat, who, if I'm not mistaken, started out as an Independent, wins on Election Night, we have successfully turned another seat from red to blue. That, right there, is a reason to celebrate. However, we'll be dealing with another Blue Dog in the House, which isn't always a pleasant proposition. However, without a doubt, he's a far sight better than the Conservative Party candidate.
But what happens if Hoffman, the Conservative wins? This is where I wonder if we might win bigger by losing. If he wins, the seat stays red for all intents and purposes. Yes, he's a teabagger, no question. But as a member of a relatively small minority in the House, he really won't have an opportunity to shape policy. So, as Democrats, we don't end up being set back all that much.
However, the hard right would have a new rallying cry if Hoffman picks up the seat. They have solid proof that their way of doing things "works". Now, we all know that if the Republicans go even further to the right, in the vast majority of districts that is going to run them right into a ditch. But if the teabag crowd can force the Republicans further and further to the right, could that end up making our job easier in 2010, thus freeing us to elect more, and hopefully, better Democrats?
Now, I don't want anyone to think that I'm suggesting people in New York should back Hoffman or not go out and vote for Owens. You absolutely should and I'm certainly hoping that Owens wins. But if he loses, I don't think we should be all that worried about 2010. In the long run, it might end up being better if a few things fall our way.