With the election "process" over in Afghanistan, there has been much to consider about where the US is, and how to move forward from here. Do we continue with nation building? Send more troops? Concentrate on economic rebuilding?
I think the answer comes down to a single choice.
The one question that must be answered to determine the path forward is this: Is the United States willing to commit to reclaiming the initiative in the conflict?
Initiative, momentum, going on offense. If the US is not committed to that as a strategic objective, there is no foreseeable path to victory.
I suspect the request for 40,000 troops by Gen. McChrystal represents the threshold for that condition, or some number close to that. Generals always ask for more, not less. The most recent strategy trial balloon that was an alternate was to protect and defend the majority of the population centers in the country, to build stability. You don't need to be an expert to see the flaw in that approach. The Taliban will rule the countryside, choke the passes, slow the supply line to a trickle, and wait us out. Eventually, we'll leave.
And how many will die for that failed strategy?
Whatever our objectives are--military, political, economic--they cannot be fulfilled in a stable, long-term sense without first re-establishing initiative. That goes whether or not we seek a negotiated settlement with elements of the Taliban, or go all-in for total military victory.
So the question comes down to that commitment of resources, money, time, and most importantly, flesh and blood. Are our objectives critical enough to justify commitment of all of the above to regain the initiative?
Because if they're not, we should get out. And that right soon. A defensive strategy--on behalf of a corrupt regime, no less--is not worth the further sacrifice of blood or treasure, as far as I'm concerned