Late Wednesday the non-partisan Congressional Business Office released its score of the Republican health care bill. It's good news -- unless you're a Republican. In that case, you should be very, very embarrassed. Details below the fold.
The Republican bill has been the target of much criticism since details started to leak out earlier this week. But criticism always hits hardest when backed up with data and we didn't have the numbers...until tonight. And oh what beautiful numbers they are!
From the CBO report (pdf):
According to CBO and JCT’s assessment, enacting the amendment would result in
a net reduction in federal budget deficits of $68 billion over the 2010–2019 period. That estimate reflects a projected net cost of $8 billion over 10 years for the provisions directly related to insurance coverage; that net cost reflects a gross cost of $61 billion that is partly offset by about $52 billion in additional revenues associated with the coverage provisions. Over the same period, the other provisions of the amendment would reduce direct spending by $49 billion and increase tax revenues by $27 billion.
The Republican bill reduces the deficit by just under $7 billion a year. Compare that to the CBO score (pdf) for the Affordable Health Care for America Act
According to CBO and JCT’s assessment, enacting H.R. 3962 would result
in a net reduction in federal budget deficits of $104 billion over the 2010–2019 period (see Table 1). In the subsequent decade, the collective effect of its provisions would probably be slight reductions in federal budget deficits.
Democrats and the American people win!
By 2019, CBO and JCT estimate, the number of nonelderly people without health insurance would be reduced by about 3 million relative to current law, leaving about 52 million nonelderly residents uninsured. The share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance coverage in 2019 would be about 83 percent, roughly in line with the current share.
The Republican bill does almost nothing to expand coverage. Compare that to the CBO score of the Democrat's bill.
By 2019, CBO and JCT estimate, the number of nonelderly people who are uninsured would be reduced by about 36 million, leaving about 18 million nonelderly residents uninsured (about one-third of whom would be unauthorized immigrants). Under H.R. 3962, the share of legal nonelderly residents with insurance coverage would rise from about 83 percent currently to about 96 percent.
Democrats and the American people win!
Of course the Republican goal wasn't to expand coverage. They were going to focus on cost reduction. And by reducing costs, they would make insurance more affordable for more people. How did they do on that front?
CBO estimates that the combination of provisions included in the amendment would reduce average private health insurance premiums per enrollee in the United States relative to what they would be under current law. The average reductions would be larger in the markets for small group and individually purchased policies, which are the focus of many of the legislation’s provisions. In the small group market, which represents about 15 percent of total private premiums, the amendment would lower average insurance premiums in 2016 by an estimated 7 percent to 10 percent compared with amounts under current law. In the market for individually purchased insurance, which represents a little more than 5 percent of total private premiums, the amendment would lower average insurance premiums in 2016 by an estimated 5 percent to 8 percent compared with amounts under current law. And in the large group market, which represents nearly 80 percent of total private premiums, the amendment would lower average insurance premiums in 2016 by zero to 3 percent compared with amounts under current law, according to CBO’s estimates.
Wow. Zero to 3% reduction in premiums for 80% of private premiums. That's really going to get people to rally behind the Republican plan...ok, maybe not. And what about that 5 to 8 percent reduction for the individual insurance market? That's still going to leave insurance out of reach for millions of Americans. Not to mention the fact that the Republican proposal would still allow insurance companies to deny coverage based on pre-existing conditions and allow them to cancel policies for premium-paying members who dare to get sick. (Note: From what I can tell, the CBO apparently did not do the same analysis of impact on premiums for the Affordable Health Care for America Act.)
Bottom line: REPUBLICANS FAIL. DEMOCRATS AND THE AMERICAN PEOPLE WIN!
Some embarrassing mistakes in the poorly-worded poll below (not to mention the lack of a pie option). Unfortunately it cannot be edited so I'll just have to live with the shame brought on to me by poor proofreading prior to publishing.