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After my last diary, i think is needed analize the ranks, and find solutions for the problems what Democratic Party can have. This is the link:

Rank for senate 2010 and rank for governor 2010 by last polls.

I think we must start by last polls published after my diary. In all data included in previous diary we must change only the reference to R Ehrlich for MD-Gov, because he improve from +11 (favourable to M O'Malley) to +7.

We have too the confirmation of J Brewer is finally in AZ-Gov race. Until now, she and J Gibbons are the republicans what assume higher risks.

And we have finally news what make think G Pataki is likely out of NY-Sen race, thinking more in a presidential bid for 2012. That agree with their support to Hoffman in last NY-23 election.

If G Pataki enter not in the race, and with R Giuliani and P King out the race, we get with orientative polls only, and that would up NY-Sen (s) race since 59th post until 49th post. An important change. Much more easy and favourable for democrats.

In last diary, i just try explain the importance of G Pataki (NY-Sen), T Thompson (WI-Sen) and J Rell (CT-Gov) get finally out these races. This is sinonimous of high improvement in democratic chance of win these races. For that is important take they like important targets now, while they not tell officially they are out.

These would be the ranks with G Pataki, T Thompson and J Rell out NY-Sen, WI-Sen and CT-Gov races:

RANK FOR SENATE 2010 BY LAST POLLS

November 05, 2009 edition of the rank of senate seats by last polls.

41 Dem senate seats without elections in 2010 (39 Dem + 2 Ind)
42nd OR-Sen R Wyden --------- W Polls ------------- ?
43rd IN-Sen E Bayh ------------ W Polls -------------- ?
44th MD-Sen B Mikulski -------- U Polls -------------- ?
45th NY-Sen C Schumer ------- U Polls -------------- ?
46th VT-Sen P Leahy ----------- O Polls -(+22 %)-- ** J Douglas
47th WA-Sen P Murray -------- O Polls -(+13 %)-- ** D Reichert
48th HI-Sen D Inouye --------- O Polls -(+12 %)-- ** L Lingle
49th NY-Sen K Gillibrand ------ O Polls -(- 17 %)-- ** R Giuliani
50th MA-Sen M Coakley ------- +26 % -------------- S Brown
51st WI-Sen R Feingold ------- +18 % ------------- M Green
52nd CA-Sen B Boxer ----------- +14 % ------------- C Fiorina
53rd IL-Sen A Giannoulias ---- +03 % ------------- M Kirk
54th PA-Sen A Specter -------- +02 % ------------- P Toomey
55th AR-Sen B Lincoln --------- +02 % ------------- G Baker
56th MO-Sen R Carnahan ---- =00 % -------------- R Blunt
57th DE-Sen B Biden ----------- - 01 % -------------- M Castle
58th OH-Sen L Fisher ---------- - 01 % ------------- R Portman
59th KY-Sen J Conway -------- - 04 % ------------- T Grayson (- 10% D Mongiardo Dem)
60th CT-Sen C Dodd ----------- - 05 % ------------- R Simmons

TIE POINT 2009

61st NV-Sen H Reid ------------ - 05 % ------------- S Lowden / D Tarkanian
62nd TX-Sen W White ---------- - 06 % ------------- D Dewhurst / G Abbott
63rd NH-Sen P Hodes ---------- - 07 % ------------- K Ayotte
64th NC-Sen E Marshall ------- - 10 % ------------- R Burr
65th GA-Sen J Marshall -------- - 08 % ------------- J Isakson
66th CO-Sen M Bennet -------- - 09 % ------------- J Norton
67th IA-Sen R Conlin ----------- - 12 % ------------ C Grassley
68th LA-Sen C Melancon ------ - 12 % ------------- D Vitter
69th FL-Sen K Meek ----------- - 15 % -------------- M Rubio (-12% C Christ)
70th ND-Sen B Dorgan -------- - 17 % -------------- J Hoeven
71st AZ-Sen G Giffords -------- - 27 % -------------- J McCain
72nd KS-Sen ** K Sebelius --- O Polls -(+10 %)-- T Tiahrt
73rd AK-Sen ** A Knowles --- O Polls -(- 08 %)-- L Murkowski
74th SD-Sen ** S Herseth-H - O Polls -(- 12 %)-- J Thune
75th OK-Sen ** B Henry ------ O Polls -(- 12 %)-- T Coburn
76th UT-Sen ** J Matheson--- O Polls -(- 23 %)-- R Bennett
77th SC-Sen ? ------------------ W Polls -------------- J DeMint
78th AL-Sen ? ------------------- W Polls -------------- R Shelby
79th ID-Sen ? ------------------- W Polls -------------- M Crapo
21 Rep senate seats without elections in 2010 (21 Rep)

W Polls = Without Polls
U Polls = Unusable Polls
O Polls = Orientative Polls (with theorical frontrunners what lose handly in the polls or will not run after join the cabinet)

RANK FOR GOVERNORS 2010 BY LAST POLLS

November 05, 2009 edition of the rank for governors by last polls.

07 Dem governors without elections in 2010
08th WY-Gov D Freudenthal - W Polls ------------- ?
09th AR-Gov M Beebe --------- W Polls ------------- ?
10th NM-Gov D Denish -------- O Polls -(+22 %)-- ** S Pearce / H Wilson
11th MD-Gov M O'Malley ------ O Polls -(+07 %)-- ** R Ehrlich
12th NY-Gov A Cuomo -------- +40 % -------------- R Lazio
13th OR-Gov J Kitzhaber ----- +27 % -------------- A Allen
14th NH-Gov J Lynch ---------- +21 % -------------- J Kimball
15th CA-Gov J Brown ---------- +21 % ------------- M Withman
16th MA-Gov D Patrick -------- +10 % -------------- C Baker
17th HI-Gov M Hannemann -- +10 % -------------- J Aiona (+09% N Abercrombie Dem)
18th AZ-Gov T Goddard ------- +07 % -------------- J Brewer
19th IL-Gov P Quinn ----------- +07 % -------------- W Brady
20th MN-Gov M Dayton -------- O Polls -(- 04 %)-- ** T Pawlenty
21st CT-Gov S Bysiewicz ------ O Polls -(- 06 %)-- ** J Rell (? N Lamont Dem)
22nd VT-Gov D Racine --------- W Polls ------------- ?
23rd RI-Sen F Caprio ---------- W Polls ------------- ?
24th OH-Gov T Strickland ----- +01 % ------------- J Kasich
25th FL-Gov A Sink ------------- +01 % ------------- W McCollum
26th NV-Gov O Goodman ----- =00 % ------------- B Sandoval
27th SC-Gov J Rex -------------- =00 % ------------- H McNaster
28th WI-Gov T Barrett --------- - 01 % ------------- S Walker

TIE POINT 2009 (yesterdays changes will come in 2010)

29th GA-Gov R Barnes --------- - 02 % ------------- J Oxendine
30th ME-Gov E Mitchell -------- - 03 % -------------- P Mills
31st PA-Gov J Wagner -------- - 04 % -------------- T Corbett
32nd AL-Gov A Davis ---------- - 04 % -------------- B Byrne
33rd IA-Gov C Culver --------- - 05 % -------------- T Branstad
34th CO-Gov W Ritter --------- - 05 % -------------- S McInnis
35th MI-Gov J Cherry ---------- - 15 % -------------- M Cox
OK
TX
TN
KS
AK
UT
SD
ID
NE

6 Rep governors without elections in 2010

W Polls = Without Polls
U Polls = Unusable Polls
O Polls = Orientative Polls (with theorical frontrunners what lose handly in the polls or will not run after join the cabinet)

We can see the improvement without T Thompson, G Pataki and J Rell in WI-Sen, NY-Sen and CT-Gov races respectively. WI-Sen race up since 57th to 51th in senate rank, NY-Sen race up since 59th to 49th, and CT-Gov up since 34th to 21st post in gubernatorial rank. That is allways good for dems. Without they, would be three so easy races, with they, will be surely hardest battleground races.

But T Thompson (a Bush's Cabinet man) and J Rell can choose race next year. They can run for senate or for governor in their home states, and they have any chance in booth races. Looking to the polls surely they have better chance in WI-Gov and CT-Sen races respectively, and if they go in, these races will down in the ranks. I think they need, and they will decide so fast. I think is very unlike see J Rell running against J Lieberman. I think republicans wish J Lieberman became republican, and they will not fight against J Lieberman. For that, if she think in the senate she must run in 2010 against C Dodd.

The best option for we is T Thompson and J Rell run not in 2010. For that is good they became serious targets for us since now.

G Pataki, like all others what look to 2012 presidential elections must move much more to the rigth of the necessary for be elected for New York statewide office. And that make he must decide fast too.

Changing of matter and starting to talk about more states at same level we can start talking about the races what seems more favourable for republicans. Until now in this group what get out the poll in my previous diary, the polled race more favourable for dems is OK-Gov race, with +16% for republicans. Hard. I must tell im curious too for know polls about AK-Gov race. Alaska would give any new good surprise? Im not sure.

More favourable would be the races included in the poll of my previous diary. Here we start to see any chance. I choose difficult races for dems but races where democratic party can have any chance. The people here tell TX-Sen and GA-Sen races are the more difficult in the group.

TX-Sen: Surely the people think KB Hutchinson will not left her senate seat while is not necessary. And she can think in other senators running for other offices recently. B Obama, J Biden, H Clinton and J McCain retire not from their senate seats while they run, and they run for President, not for Governor of Texas. Surely the people is thinking that about TX-Sen race.

GA-Sen: Surely the people think they are not looking democrats going to run against J Isakson. J Marshall is not in and maybe he finally run not. The recruitment for this race is not becaming succesful. With best dems in the race is not sure the victory, that make here they get out until now.

The people with their votes let we a group of races what surely will be so difficult, but when the people see more chance of win for dems. They are:

ND-Sen with B Dorgan and J Hoeven
MI-Gov with M Cox, J Cherry and more
FL-Sen with C Crist, K Meek and more
LA-Sen with D Vitter and C Melancon
IA-Sen with C Grassley and R Conlin
NV-Sen with H Reid and republicans

Very known races. Any democrat and republican incumbents endangered, and any open seats leaning republican. Surely unnecessary repeat all what we can read every day. In this group we have the more unfavourable races for democrats in blue states (MI-Gov, IA Sen and NV-Sen).

For todays poll i let out these races, taking only from the previous poll, the races without votes, and going to up in the ranks towards more favourable races for democrats. That let us a group more favourable for dems than the group of the first poll.

Each state is different, each race is different, and every one can break by different way, but in this moment all these races move in very close numbers.

I know is not very diplomatic and popular ask for vote in negative, but with this way for ask i would like avoid every person vote with interest for the race in his home state or for favourites. I think by this way the people's votes can be more unbiased.

Originally posted to abgin on Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 02:35 AM PST.

Poll

Vote for the race more difficult for democrats in this group.

25%4 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
12%2 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
6%1 votes
12%2 votes
12%2 votes
12%2 votes
0%0 votes
12%2 votes
0%0 votes
6%1 votes
0%0 votes

| 16 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

    •  I can not fully understand this diary (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      abgin

      please explain how you came by your ranking system.

      •  Where you have more problems for understand? (0+ / 0-)

        I will try explain you more.

        The ranks are based in polls, in last polls.

        For each state i find the last poll between the candidates with best polls in both sides. I try find strongest against strongest between the candidates polled. Possitive numbers are favourable differences for dems and negative numbers are favourable differences for republicans.

        For any states we have not polls (without polls). Generally they are states with strongest incumbents what have low level of opposition, for that this race go to positions more favourables for their party. The positions with low numbers are more near dems and positions with high numbers are more near republicans.

        They are states with unusable polls (in these ranks) about the races. That are polls only for primaries or polls agaisnt "someone else". Generally, when the pollsters get here is because we have a so strong incumbent.

        We have too polls what i call "orientatives". They are polls against high level possibly challengers what is not expected they will run because they would have very hard races for defeat their opposition.

        And finally we have in the mid of the rank the races more competitives, more polled and with definite candidates.

        I let signal for the "Tie Point" what is the point por just repeat current results.

        In the rank for gubernatorial races, we have a group of races with current republican incumbents what will (or can) not run and that make these races can go finally for dems. For that are in lean dem possitions in the rank. Would be very interesting have polls for these races.

        If you need more explanation ask me again.

  •  Illinois should hopefully be ok for both the (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    Governorship and the Senate. It's a matter of Chicago area Democrats coming home on election day.

    My hope in the United States to be the land of the free was destroyed again in Maine.

    by Liberalindependent28 on Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 04:42:54 AM PST

    •  Yes im so hopeful too about Illinois both races (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Liberalindependent28

      We must know if the former republican AG who enter in the race recently can improve republican polls for governors race, but im hopeful.

      •  I think it will still go the the Democratic party (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        abgin

        whether it is Quinn or Hynes who is the eventual victor in the primary. I've already been seeing McKenna ads, and nowhere in the ad does he mention he's a Republican lol. The brand is still obviously toxic in Illinois.

        My hope in the United States to be the land of the free was destroyed again in Maine.

        by Liberalindependent28 on Fri Nov 06, 2009 at 05:07:53 AM PST

        [ Parent ]

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