As expected, the new week brings a smattering of polling data (mostly of the primary election variety), as people start finally boxing up all of their 2009 Election decorations and moving onward to the next trip to the ballot box.
CA-Gov/CA-Sen: New LA Times/USC Poll Shows Intriguing '10 Landscape
There is no shortage of things to ponder in the new numbers coming out this week from the new poll sponsored by the Los Angeles Times and USC. In the survey, which was actually conducted by the D/R combo plate of GQR (the pollsters behind Democracy Corps) and Public Opinion Strategies, the presumptive GOP frontrunner to face Barbara Boxer, former tech exec Carly Fiorina, finds herself in fairly deep trouble. Not only does she have a reasonably strong incumbent (Boxer stands at +13 net favorable--49/36--which the Times notes is about where she was for each of her three Senate wins to date), but Fiorina herself has weak numbers. Her favorability spread is net negative (9/12), and she finds herself in a tie in the GOP primary against little-known state legislator Chuck DeVore, a favorite of the right-wing.
On the gubernatorial side, likely Democratic nominee Jerry Brown, the former governor and current state Attorney General, has a fairly strong +17 spread in his favorabilities (44/27), which is considerably better than his less popular (though also less well-known) potential GOP rivals. In a trial heat of the GOP gubernatorial primary, former E-Bay executive Meg Whitman leads the field with 35%, but former Congressman Tom Campbell looms not far behind at 27%. As with other polls, state Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner lags well behind, at 10% in this particular poll.
RI-Gov: Chafee Poll Hints 2010 Could Be Independent's Day
With the traditional and necessary caveat that this IS an internal poll, and thus should be taken with several grains of salt, we get the first real set of numbers out of what promises to be a very interesting gubernatorial race in the state of Rhode Island. Former Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee, who was often at odds with his party and only barely survived a Club for Growth fueled primary challenge for his Senate seat in 2006, has a poll from Alpha Associates taken late in October. Against either of the likely Democratic candidates (state Attorney General Patrick Lynch or state Treasurer Frank Caprio) and newly minted GOP candidate Rory Smith, Chafee holds a lead. Against the more conservative Democratic candidate (Caprio), Chafee's lead is well within the margin of error (36-34-8). Against Lynch, Chafee takes a bigger lead as social conservatives edge over to the little-known GOP candidate (37-24-15).
NV-Gov: Is Gibbons Dead Meat in GOP Primary? New Poll Says "Yes"
A new poll sponsored by conservative Nevada political strategist Chuck Muth, and conducted by a mystery pollster of sorts called PMI, Inc., shows that incumbent Republican Governor Jim Gibbons would be the underdog in a potential GOP primary with former state Attorney General (and federal judge) Brian Sandoval. The poll, which for some reason felt the need to poll nearly 5000 Nevada Republicans (hello, overkill!), gave Sandoval a 36-24 lead over Gibbons, with North Las Vegas Mayor Mike Mantandon well back at 7%. The assumption, of course, is that Gibbons would make a much easier general election target than Sandoval, given that (a) Gibbons has been an incumbent governor in trying times for state executives (look at the poll numbers for incumbent Governors. Unless your name is Mike Beebe or Brian Schweitzer, they're pretty dismal) and (b) Gibbons' tenure in office had already been something of a train wreck.
2009 Post-Mortem: So Did Turnout Matter...Or Not?
Two fairly prominent polling entities are out today with intriguing reads on what led to the Republican victories in New Jersey and Virginia's gubernatorial races last week. The pollsters at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (GQR) used post-election survey data to reveal that a core group of Democratic-friendly voters (which they refer to as the RAE--Rising American Electorate) chose not to participate in 2009, to the detriment of Democratic candidates. On the other hand, Pollster's Charles Franklin chimes in, as well. His thesis--changes in vote preference played a much greater role in the outcomes on November 3rd than a mere selective reduction in turnout.
IN OTHER NEWS....
- Quite a bit of breaking news from late in this afternoon. The biggest news comes out of the land of the Nutmeggers, where incumbent Republican Governor Jodi Rell is retiring, rather than seeking re-election. There are several Democrats already in the field (with 2006 Senate nominee Ned Lamont being the most recent entrant). As for Republicans, the best bet is that Rell's Lt. Governor, Michael Fedele, will carry the banner for the GOP.
- In other late breaking Monday news, it looks like Colorado Governor Bill Ritter will not benefit from watching the GOP candidates bash each other into oblivion--state legislator Josh Penry is backing out of a gubernatorial bid, in all likelihood leaving the nomination to former Congressman Scott McInnis.
- Today was the day for Illinois Democratic Congressman Danny Davis, who filed for both re-election to Congress and for the Presidency of the Cook County Board of Commissioners, to pick one. Davis did: he is seeking re-election to Congress.
- Absolutely no one will be surprised to hear or see this, but the Club For Growth, having clubbed DeDe Scozzafava (and costing the GOP a House seat in the bargain), has picked their next victim: Florida Governor Charlie Crist. They officially endorsed insurgent candidate Marco Rubio.
- Speaking of potential targets for the Club for Growth, here is one: once anyone can figure out what New Hampshire Republican frontrunner Kelly Ayotte stands for, that is. A conservative alternative candidate, 1996 gubernatorial nominee Ovide Lamontagne, announced today that he is in.
- Conservative Utah Attorney General Mark Shurtleff's decision to back off of a primary challenge to US Senator Bob Bennett only bought the incumbent a temporary reprieve. Two other Republicans are now sounding out possible bids. Both lack Shurtleff's name recognition, but both have some official GOP pedigree: one was a 2004 gubernatorial nominee, the other a lawyer in former Governor Jon Huntsman's counsel's office.
- Speaking of the Nevada Governor's race, here is a bit of potentially dispiriting news. It looks like Rory Reid, whose polling numbers have been a disappointment, is the only game in town for Democrats. Oscar Goodman, while still not committed to a gubernatorial bid, has apparently decided that if he goes, it will be as an Independent, rather than a Democrat.
- A quick hit in the Burlington Free Press blog, VT Buzz, makes a potentially game-saving point for the Democrats in the open-seat contest to replace Republican Governor Jim Douglas--if Anthony Pollina, who has scored major percentages in the past as the Progressive Party candidate in the past, elects to run for Governor, it appears it will be as a Democrat.
- Wow...here is a shocker, a potentially serious candidate who is not running for Governor of Minnesota next year.