AR-Sen: Time to Take a Stand, Blanche

Blanche Lincoln is between a rock and a hard place. She's a Democratic senator up for reelection in a relatively conservative state. Making it worse,

In terms of trends, Arkansas was Obama's worst state, by Superman-esque leaps and bounds. The president underperformed John Kerry by six points statewide, and underperformed in every congressional district.

The drops seen in Marion Berry's district, and Mike Ross' district, were the largest anywhere in the country, and from a position of relative strength. Generally speaking, we expect to win districts where Kerry got 47-48%. Those are definitionally swing districts, no more divided under normal circumstances than the nation itself.

Last year, however, Obama finished under 40% in both of them.

Lincoln cannot, in other words, hope to be bailed out by a few Obama appearances on her behalf.

Her response has been to run scared, abandoning all appearance of caring about any issue, doing the kind of waffling and wavering and caving that neither wins Republicans over on the merits nor earns the respect of voters who appreciate strength (or the appearance of strength, anyway).

It's the kind of performance that loses your own base without attracting anyone else, and Steve Benen has a suggestion for Lincoln:

I'd become the biggest champion of bold, progressive health care reform in the Senate. I'd show some major leadership, get out way in front, and position myself as a Kennedy-like guardian of those suffering under the status quo.

Look, Lincoln isn't going to out-conservative the Republican candidates in Arkansas. No matter how she votes on reform, the entire Attack Machine is going after her as some kind of radical leftist. It doesn't matter if it doesn't make sense, and it certainly doesn't matter if she votes with Republicans on the big issues of the day for the next year.

So why not go big? Why not announce that too many Arkansas families are being screwed right now by a dysfunctional health care system and Blanche Lincoln has decided to do something about it? Why not run ads saying, "I don't care what the insurance companies and their candidates say: I'm fighting for the families who can't afford their premiums, the workers who can't get coverage, the Arkansans with pre-existing conditions, the small businesses that can't afford insurance for the employees...."?

In other words, show some confidence. Voters can recognize fear, so stop being defensive. Arkansas has a high percentage of low-income families, struggling to get by, who are terrified of their health care situation. They're not going to vote Democratic on cultural and/or social issues, but they're open to the Democratic message on economic policy -- looking out for working families' interests. A candidate who positions herself as a populist people's champion has a better shot than an apologetic Democrat who hopes Republicans won't mind her party affiliation.

Exactly. Lincoln is guaranteed a Republican challenger. She's unlikely to get the Republican vote. Yet for some reason she continues to waver on popular things like health care reform, a move guaranteed to depress Democratic base turnout in November 2010 without winning over any independents.

Lincoln has time to turn it around or at least go out fighting. Instead, she appears determined to be the 2010 version of Creigh Deeds.

•  Asking a Blue Dog to show courage

  is like asking Rush Limbaugh to be intelligent.  They just can't.

  by Kevvboy on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:51:42 AM PDT

  •  It's just not in their nature,

    unless there is corporate money involved.

    by TomP on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:09:17 AM PDT

    •  it's an easy choice. support healthcare,

      get your constituents health insurance.  

      it's a win-win.

      now i'm eager what we Kossacks can do to get the Public Option back into the Senate bill.  fuck baucus.

      by primarydoc on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:11:12 AM PDT

      •  It's in, with opt out

        unless I missed some twist since the Reid press conference.

        by Superribbie on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:14:43 AM PDT

        •  no i've heard that, but who will be available

          to?  certainly not everyone?  and how can the health of individuals be left up to the whims and biases of state governors (many of whom have pledged they will not support the public option or provide one at the state level)?

          this ends up making only a few million people eligible.

          by primarydoc on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:33:46 AM PDT

          •  I don't think it's governors

            I think it would be legislation on the state legislature (vetoable by the governor), and not available until one year after the plan is up and running, but we'll have to see the language when it comes out.

            by Superribbie on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 11:03:23 AM PDT

    •  There is corporate money involved

      Arkansas probably isn't going to reelect her. She's hedging. If Arkansas doesn't reelect her, she would have a nice job waiting (in two years) in the health insurance industry if she's one of a couple of Democrats who saves their money making machine called death by spreadsheet.

      It's pretty obvious at this point.

      by atheistben on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:11:57 AM PDT

    •  This analysis better crystallizes

      the difference between the view of mainstream politicians and we unruly netroots types than anything I can remember since the "50-state strategy" and Lamont election days.  What Benen wrote seems so obviously true that I can't quite get my arms around what the mainstreamers really think is going to happen here.  Have they an analysis?  If this is about "lack of corporate money," I suppose that it's really about corporate money as a signal: Lincoln simply, deep down, can't believe that people with money would prefer to replace her with an even more reliable Republican vote.

      And, as a result, she is going to get Creighmed.  Well, they can't say we didn't try to warn her.

      by Seneca Doane on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:18:24 AM PDT

      •  no self-preservation instinct

        Exactly right. It's like they want to lose.

        Their thinking baffles me. If they were being craven to grab easily identifiable votes, sure, that would make sense. But they're hiding from their supporters and not gaining any votes with waffling. Who votes for wafflers? I've never seen a poll with a large group who wants their representative to do nothing and stand for nothing.

        by ferg on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:40:12 AM PDT

        •  Well, if she does head down this route

          She will add another term to our political lexicon.  When a Gubernatorial candidate does this it will be called getting Creighmed, and when a Senatorial candidate does it, it will be called getting Blanched.

          by Seneca Doane on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:45:39 AM PDT

        •  well

          she gets her pension
          she gets her federal health care for life

          plus whatever cush job she gets handed.

          by Hey BB on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 09:14:11 AM PDT

      •  I suspect...

        I suspect that the "mainstream" analysis (which pretends that corporate money isn't an issue) would be that passing health care reform would energize her opposition, and without that she might coast by on the strength of incumbency. This is because in the Village view, energizing the Republican base or not is always a significant factor, but energizing the Democratic base never is.

        by Redshift on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:43:08 AM PDT

        •  So then she sees the 1994 failure as the model

          for Democratic success?  Someone is putting hallucinogens in her hush puppies.

          by Seneca Doane on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:46:42 AM PDT

        •  There is some truth in that view

          but it misdiagnoses the true source of the anger, which is about Wall Street.

          by fladem on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 09:36:31 AM PDT

      •  Two reasons I am skeptical

        1.  Arkansas is far more red at this point than Virginia is.

        2.  While people may support the public option health care reform as a whole struggles nationally to break the 50% mark and my guess is in Arkansas it trails by at least 10 points.

        There is no question Lincoln needs to find a way to show her independence.

        If I were advising her, I would start by telling her that the source of much of the populist anger isn't about health care it is about the bailouts and Wall Street ripping off the rest of the country.

        I would tell her THAT is the issue to get in front of.  Her relection will be decided on the basis of the economy and the extent to which people think their interests have been defended.

        On Health Care I would tell her she has more room to move than she thinks, and dissapointing her base will carry more costs than benefits.

        Which means she should vote yes.

        by fladem on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 09:35:39 AM PDT

        •  Good analysis

          and you're right -- the Democrats need to learn to demagogue a bit on Big Banks.

          by Seneca Doane on Wed Nov 11, 2009 at 09:59:10 PM PDT

  •  Yes they can

    Although "nerve" is more what I call it. They take donations from their base, and then "bravely" show their independence by taking a long piss on them every chance they get.

    But once in a while, they do the right thing. Some Blue Dogs voted for the House HCR bill.

    by AdmiralNaismith on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:09:20 AM PDT

•  It will be interesting

  to watch this unfold. Especially since the teabaggers think they've got everything going their way.

  by Kestrel on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:52:30 AM PDT

  •  So does Orly Taitz (n/t)

    by Superribbie on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:16:01 AM PDT

•  No one will miss her when she's gone

  The loss of her seat will be unlamented. That is what happens when you insist on being a non-entity.

  by beltane on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:53:52 AM PDT

  •  That's a bit of a bold interpretation

    She's going to be gone because she's a Dem in an increasingly regionalized GOP-stronghold of the south.   We can talk all we want about how being bold would help her - and it might make a difference of a few points.  

    But let's be honest, it's what we WANT to think because we want her to act a certain way (not without good reason).

    But the fact is the GOP is a regional party and while we gain everywhere else, they will gain in the South.  And there's little Lincoln can do in the face of that macro-trend.

    by dansac on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:00:44 AM PDT

    •  Arkansas has 2.......................

      ..............Democratic Senators, and all but one of the Representatives is a Democrat and the Govenor is a Democrat. I wouldn't say this is a Republican stronghold, and hasn't been for some time.

      But Evangelical Christianity is a stronghold here. Plus some previlant racism, but both are on the downward slide as cooler heads are prevailing.

      The Christian cultism surrounding Bush did a number with fundamentalists preachers during the Bush administration.

      And most Arkansans were solidly behind Hillary for the Presidency, so Obama got little traction, and alot of crap anti-Obama emails papered the state. Long befor birthers made the MSM that old lie was virtual truth here in Arkansas.

      I'm willing to be wrong, but I don't remember Obama coming to Arkansas to campaign either.

      All that said, if a good progressive Democrat would primary Blanche, she would no doubt be gone...........especially if they can get some advertising to get name recognition here in the state.

      Pryor has done some good for the state, but Blanche is not known for much, other than good fund raising amoung the few corps we have here.

      But Pryor has become a bit questionable because of his assotiation with the apostate C Street underground collaboration with Republicans and his tight as a birds ass connection with traitor Joe Lieberman.

      So this would be a good place for a real progressive to take a foot hold and make a fight of it in a good campaign.

      People here want someone who is going to pull for the people and they know that isn't a Republican. And they are pretty sure Mark and Blanche aren't in the game for them wither.

      by socks on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 10:19:21 AM PDT

  •  We might miss her after all.

    If it means the Senate trades her for one more 100% all filibuster, all the time Republican, and we don't gain enough seats elsewhere to neutralize that.

    Better win Ohio, New Hampshire, Missouri, North Carolina and a sleeper or two while holding every other Dem seat outside of Dixie.

    by AdmiralNaismith on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:11:51 AM PDT

    •  Add Kentucky to your top tier list.

      Florida is not a lost cause if Rubio wins in an ugly primary.  

      Texas could be very interesting assuming it happens.  

      Diaper Dave Vitter will probably get reelected given the trends in his state, but the Dems got the best possible candidate and there will be some blowback from Vitter's escapades.

      by Superribbie on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:19:21 AM PDT

    •  She did

      after all vote for cloture on the stimulus package, and will probably vote for cloture on health care reform.

      There are blue dogs who are cowards, and there are blue dogs because it is the only way they can survive.

      It is important to understand the difference.

      by fladem on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 09:38:25 AM PDT

•  Charm and personality get you only so far.

  by skillet on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:54:02 AM PDT

  •  I've not seen much of either

    in Blanche Lincoln. Bland, dull, mediocre mind.

    by bumblebums on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:58:15 AM PDT

    •  my point exactly.

      by skillet on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:59:14 AM PDT

      •  Why pols like her can't see

        that barking up conservative trees for votes is futile ... sigh..

        They don't like you, Blanche. Wake up. Do something authentic.

        by bumblebums on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:02:54 AM PDT

        •  at least.....go out swinging.

          by skillet on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:04:12 AM PDT

          •  I hate the idea

            that the common good can be so profoundly affected by one person's career. So, when Lincoln screws over the people in her state, she'll be rewarded down the line with a nice job for the insurance lobby. How perverted our society has become when failure to serve the people and epic incompetence are so richly rewarded?

            by rightiswrong on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:20:54 AM PDT

    •  I wonder how she got elected

      in the first place

      by grinning dog on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:02:54 AM PDT

      •  She was a congresswoman for several terms

        retired in 1996, but ran for Senate in 1998 when Dale Bumpers retired.  That would be the election in which Arkansas' favorite son, Pres. Clinton was getting impeached over a blow job--and Arkansans did not take too kindly to that.  Also, the GOP, after winning the other Senate seat in 1996 for the first time since Reconstruction, put up a third tier opponent.  Ms. Lincoln coasted in.  Then, in 2004, she again faced token opposition despite the state going GOP at the Presidential level and the Republicans winning 5 southern Democratic open seats.  That, I think, is part of the answer: with juicy open targets in North Carolina (retirement of Edwards), South Carolina (Hollings), Georgia (Miller--good riddance), Florida (Graham) and Louisiana (Breaux), the GOP just couldn't focus on Blanche.

        by Superribbie on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:26:25 AM PDT

  •  Honor, Honor, Honor

    A concept as old as history.

    Take an unwavering stand for your base, for humanity, for whatever.  Be willing to pay the price for it, fall on your own sword if you have to.  Don't give in without fighting to the last breath even if you know you're doomed either way.

    What the hell is her problem?  She should just surrender and switch parties.

    by JohnnySacks on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 09:28:53 AM PDT

•  infact i bet she looses

  and mary too, the Dem base in LA wont turn out for mary. i have no sympathy for her

  Good riddance.

  Dems can focus on taking both Maine seats.

  by wuod kwatch on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:54:38 AM PDT

  •  Mary was an 08 race

    She'll be up in 2014.  And she cruised.

    Its odd that Lincoln stomped her opponent in 04- which was a retchid year for Dems- but appears to be pissing it away for 2010 by embodying the do-nothing stereotype.  

    In recent elections indecisiveness has been the kiss of death regardless of ideology.

    by robroy on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:58:48 AM PDT

    •  Because

      she had a weak opponent, and the Repubs spent their resources on winning 6 of 8 open seats plus the Daschle race and the quasi-open seat Murkowski-Knowles race in Alaska.

      by Superribbie on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:28:25 AM PDT

•  republicans wont vote for her

  conservatives will run against her
  and if she abandones the party platform
  Democrats will stay home

  So what is her UP SIDE in doing a DEEDS?

  Zero, from my calculations

  by KnotIookin on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:55:20 AM PDT

  •  You mean,

    besides getting to that cushy lobbyist job for her masters at Walmart more quickly?

    by Randall Sherman on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:03:48 AM PDT

    •  She gets far more money from the.............

      .........healthcare industry.

      by socks on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 10:29:17 AM PDT

    •  Not Walmart -- that's Pryor

      Lincoln is big Ag/energy/healthcare.

      by carolita on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 03:31:31 PM PDT

      •  But Walmart Blanche...

        ...is a much easier moniker to hurl against her!

        by Randall Sherman on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 10:31:44 PM PDT

•  I hope she'll take the lesson...

  of Deeds to heart...

  do something (anything!) to get democratic voters excited about your candidacy...  BE a Democrat!

  by mommyof3 on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:55:45 AM PDT

  •  I'd much rather........................

    ............some hill billy progressive jump out of the bushes and primary her ass out of the Senate.

    by socks on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 10:30:43 AM PDT

•  Good!

  Maybe Blanche will read this.......

  by royce on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:55:52 AM PDT

•  If only...

  ...there was some wildly successful Arkansas politician who could talk to her and show her the way.  If only...hmmmm.

  by Steaming Pile on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:56:03 AM PDT

  •  LOL Good point.

    by Meggie on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:57:58 AM PDT

  •  I read that the Big Dog

    is having lunch with the Democratic Senators today, as a matter of fact.

    Maybe he can give Lincoln some good advice.

    by milkbone on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:55:32 AM PDT

•  Democrat Mike Ross (Arkansas 04)

  Just voted against the Health Care Bill and for the Stupak-Pitts Amendment.

  Show him some love too.

  by Scarce on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:56:31 AM PDT

  •  Mike Ross' history

    Mike Ross, leader of the House Blue Dog Coalition, lobbed a "no" vote, after having held up legislation in committee before the summer recess. As a member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, Ross was able to marshal the seven Blue Dog members of his committee to sow the seeds of opposition to the bill.

    (As ProPublica reported, Ross not only enjoys the largess of mucho health sector dollars in the form of campaign contributions; he and his wife made a million-dollar killing in what appears to be a sweetheart deal with a large pharmacy chain. In Ross's congressional district, 22 percent of constituents report having no health insurance.)

    http://www.alternet.org/...

    and some weasel words on "supprting" a public option:

    I — speaking only on behalf of myself — suggested one possible idea could be that instead of creating an entirely new government bureaucracy to administer a public option, Medicare could be offered as a choice to compete alongside private insurers for those Americans eligible to enter the national health insurance exchange, but at a reimbursement rate much greater than current Medicare rates.

    http://thehill.com/...

    by Scarce on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:02:17 AM PDT

  •  He cruises to reelection, though

    So it's perfectly safe for him to pocket corporate bribes and vote against his constituents.

    by ferg on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:43:09 AM PDT

•  Not sure this discussion is valid without

  mentioning that Blanche is a WHITE Democrat in Arkansas, as were Kerry and Ross.  
  She needs to act like a Democrat, not a republican, on this issue.  Even those who couldn't bring themselves to vote for Obama will support the Democratic Platform.  
  She needs to  be primaried.  Wake her up.

  by Meggie on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:56:47 AM PDT

  •  Primaried? I think you misread the situation

    She's f*cked regardless.  The GOP is taking over the South (while losing everything else).  She's not worried about a Dem primary because the Dem is almost definitely going to lose that seat in the end.

    by dansac on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:58:42 AM PDT

    •  With this most recent development in the

      republican party - NY-23 and the Teabagger party in FL, you still don't think the Democrat has a chance?  Kerry couldn't have been any further removed from the South - a windsurfing politician from Massachusetts for petes sake! - and he still got 47-48% in some districts.  I think that if the Democrat upheld the Democratic Platform, enough Dems might come out to support her.  And the possible split in the repub party wouldn't hurt!

      by Meggie on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:03:40 AM PDT

      •  That was 5 years ago

        There are Democrats in the South and there are Democrats in the South during the Obama era.  Things have gotten worse.

        by dansac on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:10:11 AM PDT

    •  Not exactly

      Unlike other southern states, Arkansas is for some reason still wall-to-wall Democrats. HUGE Dem majorities in both houses of the state legislature. Democrats in every statewide office. Three out of four House districts. Dem Governor set to win big re-election bid next year.  Unless Hucklebee wants to take on Lincoln, they don't really have a known candidate to run against her.

      Like West Virginia, Arkansas Democrats kick ass in everything but the Presidential election. They tend to be conservative Dems, but you can't exactly say the GOP has much of an advantage here. Yet. Lincoln may be doing her best to change that, though.

      by AdmiralNaismith on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:16:46 AM PDT

      •  But fed level is different - Obama is

        a differentiating factor

        by dansac on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:20:58 AM PDT

        •  Didn't seem to matter in 2008

          Pryor won statewide in a landslide, as did all three Dem House members.  In at least some of those, the GOP couldn't even find a candidate to run in opposition.

          by AdmiralNaismith on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 11:08:28 AM PDT

      •  Democrat's don't win on principal in AR

        They win because they haven't let go of the stranglehold they've had on state politics since Reconstruction.  In races where national party stuff is involved, Republicans are pretty competitive.  In local races - EVERYBODY not in the Northwest corner is a Democrat.  

        State/Local races tend to be decided in the Democratic primary - the choice tends to be between Good Ol' Boy Democrat, Republican on Democrat Ticket, Tea Bagger Democrat, and Republicans Jim Bob Duggar. (Seriously, guy runs for EVERYTHING.)

        by TheFaithfulStone on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:59:05 AM PDT

        •  Sounds like a primary is in order

          If the Democrat always wins, maybe someone should primary Lincoln.

          by AdmiralNaismith on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 11:09:39 AM PDT

          •  What makes you think the Dem Party of Ark

            would let that happen? The only way Lincoln draws a primary opponent is if the Party elders in control decide she can't win. And they aren't going to give up the Senate Ag Committee Chair easily. That is a real prize in a state as dependent on agriculture as Arkansas.

            by carolita on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 03:38:35 PM PDT

•  Too late...she already showed her cards

  viable idea in July, almost impossible to pull of in Novemeber...

  IMHO

  by justmy2 on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:57:35 AM PDT

  •  She could be honest about her change of heart

    and what has plagued her thinking...people really do appreciate honesty...it shows some basic integrity.

    by mjd in florida on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:01:41 AM PDT

•  That's one way for her to go, but

  the other way is for her to hold out for some horse-trading that helps Arkansas in some big way.

  Either way, she's pretty much screwed.  It's just another step in the regionalization of the parties.  We'll probably get NH while giving up AR.  

  by dansac on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:57:43 AM PDT

•  Blanche speaks out......

  by KnotIookin on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 07:58:33 AM PDT

•  Lincoln [WM]

  Arkansas doesn't exist anymore.

  by shpilk on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:00:28 AM PDT

•  No way

  I'd lay low and hope most folks back home don't know what the hell a cloture vote is.  Then I'd vote for cloture, but against the bill.

  What I wouldn't do is go Lieberman, which she also hasn't done.

  by roguetrader2000 on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:01:00 AM PDT

  •  Yes

    by Superribbie on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:31:20 AM PDT

•  Lincoln is doomed by her failure and should go.

  She never represented the people of AR in any positive way. She was the worst example of a politician who simply wants to get elected for the power and perks and who will do anything to say in office vs. doing what it right for AR and the nation no matter what.

  Is it better that she will be replaced by a very right wing even worse GOP politician?  Yes but as we see with health care, she is part of the problem not the solution.

  Even in defeat she serves no purpose. Had she been a fighter for health care or other life/death issue for US (cutting oil use, cutting debt) at least the election would be over real issues. Instead, she will go out trying to imitate the dysfunctional GOP and the issues will never be debated as part of her defeat which would at least serve some public good.

  by Besdeekian on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:01:18 AM PDT

•  What about the Clintons?

  They're still popular in Arkansas, right? Why doesn't Lincoln support the public option and have Bill Clinton back her up.

  Does she really want Arkansas to have a reputation for being a state that produces people who fail health care reform?

  by grinning dog on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:02:01 AM PDT

•  She needs to run as a true Democrat on both

  healthcare reform and climate change.  Right now she's cowering in fear on the "heavy lift" involved in passing the climate bill, so she won't even schedule hearings on the climate bill until the twelfth of never financial reform passes.  Voters won't appreciate a do-nothing Senator who won't even schedule hearings on the most important bill of our time, let alone vote for healthcare reform and clean energy jobs.

  by RLMiller on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:02:02 AM PDT

•  she's got a lobbiest job waiting

  she's a blue dog. I know it's good to be optimistic but please when writing diaries try to keep them in the land of reality.

  by I hate sellouts on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:02:04 AM PDT

•  If there were any state

  where bitterness from the Democratic primary was going to matter, it would be Arkansas.  I think that is the main reason Obama saw such a dramatic drop.  Arkansas still responds to populism.  What the hell is Lincoln thinking?

  by Jim in VA on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:04:53 AM PDT

•  Maybe she doesn't like being a Senator.

  It may not be all she expected.  Perhaps she should be encouraged to resign and let someone with more courage give it a try.

  by hannah on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:07:39 AM PDT

•  Lincoln won't support a public option

  We should get out of that mindset right now.

  Obama appearances won't help Lincoln.

  Gov. Beebe does not support the public option.  How do I know?  I called his office last week.

  Beebe approval rating - 70%.
  Obama approval rating - 40%.

  Who would you stand with more?

  by gph11 on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:07:43 AM PDT

  •  Public option is popular in Arkansas

    by TheUnknown285 on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 10:38:03 AM PDT

•  She learned the wrong lesson

  It doesn't take a lot of brains to see why Obama lost Arkansas so hugely, and it had nothing to do with ideology. If anything, AR voters are more likely to embrace true health care reform than other states in the region.  Lincoln might lose anyway, but it won't be because she 'voted too liberal'.

  by sny on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:09:20 AM PDT

  •  Obama ignored Arkansas

    Voters could overlook his not campaigning here in the primary, given Hillary's status in Arkansas. But that didn't change after he won the nomination. They opened their only field office in LR in late September with one out-of-state operative that I never was able to find in the office. I got 3 or 4 requests a week to come and help out the Obama campaign in Missouri, because Missouri was "important," but nothing from Arkansas.

    That was a difficult period for the Dem Party, since the director was murdered in his office in July, so there was a void in campaigning from top to bottom. Since Pryor was unopposed, he didn't do much campaigning beyond the fish fry at the Clinton Library.

    The absence of the Obama campaign did not go unnoticed. Obama got at least as much attention from Arkansas voters as they got from him.

    by carolita on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 11:38:04 AM PDT

•  This is a good strategy for ALL Democrats:

  I'd become the biggest champion of bold, progressive health care reform in the Senate. I'd show some major leadership, get out way in front, and position myself as a Kennedy-like guardian of those suffering under the status quo.

  I'm not saying every Democrat can or should be a leader on every issue.  But in general, people respect vision, courage, and leadership... sometimes even when they don't start with the same core political beliefs.

  And here's the good news:  when you stand for something, and make a strong moral case for it, you can actually PERSUADE OTHERS to your side.

  Case in point:  the late, great Sen. Paul Wellstone.  Minnesota was never a deep red state, but it was never as liberal as Wellstone was, so unapologetically.  Wellstone kept getting reelected here despite every effort to brand him as a crazy liberal, and he was on his way to doing so again when he died.  

  Mealy-mouthed Republican Lite is never the way to go for a Democrat.  And it's a sure way for the Democratic party to work itself back into minority status.

  by chumley on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:11:52 AM PDT

•  She needs to stand for something

  Blanche needs to stand up and fight for something and stop running from who she is. She is a DEMOCRAT not a REPUBLICAN. She needs to be reminded that if democrats stay home she is toast. If she stood for something she would have the democrats in her corner fighting for her, but she won't get any help if she votes against this bill. She needs to start talking to the folks directly and remind them that if it wasn't for the stimulus hundreds upon thousands of folks in arkansas would be out of a job. Point out specific stimulus jobs that are in Arkansas and that more is coming if they continue to support her. She needs to start asking some of these folks, what specifcally will republicans do to help you right now in this economy? THEY DON"T HAVE ANY PLANS!!! She needs to start talking to folks who have benefitted from the stimulus. Arkansas isn't very big,  start finding out exactly how many families don't have healthcare in her state or just lost their healthcare and how this bill would help them. Find out how many seniors in arkansas are on Medicare and remind them that they are on GOVERNMENT HEALTHCARE currently and that if we don't do something medicare will go BANKRUPT!!! The republicans don't have a freaking plan for anything. All of the netroots could help her with ads taunting just how president obama has helped her state and what this healthcare bill could do for arkansas families. I know Arkansas is a redneck state, but she needs to talk to them so they can understand how healthcare bill can help them. She needs to go down fighting she may just win.

  by lanae on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:13:54 AM PDT

  •  So, if she were an ENTIRELY DIFFERENT PERSON...

    ...then she would do fine and we would all love her.

    And if a frog had wings, he wouldn't bump his ass a'hoppin'.

    by Pope Buck I on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 01:24:29 PM PDT

•  Split The Bill - Budget Reconciliation

  In reading about Blanche's predicament, and remembering that other Dem. Senators like Nelson find themselves in a similar vulnerable position, the only solution I see other than capitulating to the "moderates" demands to gut the bill of things like the Public Option or having them kill the bill by siding with Republicans on cloture votes, is to split the bill and send the difficult stuff like the Public Option through the budget reconciliation process.

  I don't think moderates like Blanche feel that voting "yes" on cloture, than "no" on the bill, will give them sufficient political cover in their Republican states.  But if you send the stuff that is difficult for the Blue Dogs to swallow through budget reconciliation, you do them a favor and get them off the hook in their state, since they would be free to vote "no" providing them immunity from any Repub. attack using the "I did everything within my power to stop the bill" line.  In the meantime we can still get the unpalatable stuff passed with 50 + 1 votes so we don't have to water down the bill.

  Harry, are you listening?

  by Doctor Who on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:15:21 AM PDT

•  Should Dems Knock her out in the Primaries?

  At least give the voters of Arkansas a progressive Democrat to vote for?  Instead of an ersatz Rep versus whoever the actual Reps decide to run?

  by back of a knapkin analyst on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:16:15 AM PDT

  •  Any Primary Challengers?

    Do any Arkansans know of the prospects for primary challengers? I have heard one Drew Pritt's name thrown around, I was wondering if he is the only possible opponent in the Dem primary?

    by kkrahel on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:36:34 AM PDT

    •  There is a Green .....................

      ................ who is looking at running against Blanche.

      by socks on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 10:43:01 AM PDT

      •  The Greens have been decertified in Arkansas

        Dems didn't want any more pesky challengers like last time vs. Pryor. The Greens and ACLU have a court challenge up, but it won't be decided in time, probably. As it stands, the Greens will have to mount a petition drive for every candidate, including their seats in the state legislature. That's a ton of money and manpower for such a small party.

        by carolita on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 11:23:17 AM PDT

•  Your Title Reminds Me -

  Of the three doctors:
  Dr. Jones, Dr. Smith, and Debbie.

  by johnnygunn on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:17:50 AM PDT

•  Channel Dale Bumpers...nt

  by joemcginnissjr on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:18:16 AM PDT

•  She won't be missed. eom

  by Geekesque on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:19:03 AM PDT

•  Lincoln is from the Stephens Stable--

  the same outfit that bankrolled the Bushes and Bill Clinton.

  Stephens Inc is a private brokerage that handles investments for the likes of WalMart and Cargyl and has considerable interest in genetic engineering and industrial agriculture.

  Blanche may well be a wholly owned subsidiary.

  Stephens Inc. touts itself as the largest off-Wall Street brokerage.

  by hannah on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:21:15 AM PDT

  •  And isn't Lincoln be the Ag Chair?

    If Stephens is all powerful and wants her re-elected given her chairmanship of Ag, they better start giving reason for Dems to support her.  Having their bought and paid for Senator in the Ag. chair has to be too much to even think of giving up.  

    by Jonze on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:30:06 AM PDT

    •  Stephens tends to groom replacements on

      both sides of the aisle.  One of the advantages of making politics a "dirty business" is that the voters are content to hold their noses and cast an occasional ballot, giving as little thought as possible to what they're voting for.

      If the agenda is to make the best of a bad situation--i.e. universal suffrage--then it makes sense to have a variety of strategies to suppress public interest and attention to government.  Election day tends to be too late.  Distracting the electorate and spinning the facts needs to be a 24/7 affair.  Having one's own media outlets helps.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/...

      by hannah on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 10:24:25 AM PDT

    •  And her Ag Chair.........................

      ..........seat places her right in the middle of the economic wrangle concerning regulation laws that would put a stop to the Wall Street bubbles.

      by socks on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 10:45:57 AM PDT

•  Only Lincoln can change herself

  Let her go, she's gone.  It's nice to try to give her advice but she doesn't care.  Lincoln has determined her course and it is not to follow what people here say.  It's tragic that the Dems will have to lose this seat in 2010, but it's going to happen.  If there is a Dem who wants to run for the Senate in Arkansas?  Run in the primary.  Run respectfully, don't criticize Lincoln, but don't shy from differences.  When it comes time for the next Senate race, if that person has raised money, defined issues, and gotten volunteers this time around, that person will be the nominee.

  Unless Blanche Lincoln has an epiphany, this seat is lost.

  by red moon dog on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:22:06 AM PDT

•  Supporting good HCR the only winning strategy

  If a Dem votes against HCR or if HCR fails, then any Congressman expecting strong Dem support is not going to get it.  The GOP is going to attach the Dem on HCR in any case so the ploy won't help them avoid the issue.  The only winning strategy is for the Dem Congressman to be a strong supporter of a good HCR bill so that they can use it as a way to bludgeon their GOP opponents rather than have HCR used against them.

  by KingBolete on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:22:45 AM PDT

  •  I have some great hopes ......................

    ................ that Keith Olberman's health care fair in Little Rock will shine a light on Blanche's reluctance to help the people of this state.

    by socks on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 10:48:20 AM PDT

•  Frustrating as hell

  Why can't she and so many others see this?  Not only will she lose, but as icing on the cake we'll see the pundits and much of the party blaming her loss on the 'liberal' health care bill that Obama 'rammed' through.  The exact wrong conclusion to draw.

  by Tuffie on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:26:28 AM PDT

•  she doesn't care about being re-elected

  Sure, she'd like to remain a Senator, but not at the expense of the consulting or lobbying or other cushy gigs she will receive if she continues to carry insurance industry water.

  She will make far more money by staying on the good side of the corporations than she ever will by being a Senator.

  Politicians can read polls. She obviously knows that her constituents want health care reform, including a public option. She simply can't support their position because she has been paid not to, and will continue to be paid not to. If she votes with her constituents, she risks losing the election and the corporate welfare gig.

  Her priorities are different.

  Her idea of governing, as she recently stated, is for the Dems to stop trying to pass any of that pesky controversial legislation until after her next election, so she doesn't have to take any stand, or any votes that could be used against her in a campaign.

  Leadership!

  by whitewidow on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:28:57 AM PDT

  •  I bet she's got a BC/BS job lined up

    by Buckeye BattleCry on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:38:51 AM PDT

•  Ironic description

  It is amazing how these things work the same way.  This sounds exactly like the description conservatives were making of McCain -- waffling on issues that lose your base but don't gain you anyone else.  

  I think the message is that a politician needs to stand for what he or she believes in and let the chips fall where they may.

  by Support Civil Liberty on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:29:25 AM PDT

  •  Hell, not just waffling.

    Running to the right doesn't help either.  

    by TheUnknown285 on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 10:39:23 AM PDT

•  Never going to happen

  She's not bold, and she's not progressive.

  by Buckeye BattleCry on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:30:55 AM PDT

•  Lincoln isn't against healthcare because AR is

  conserative.  She's against it because she is owned by the healthcare industry.  She is not going to change.

  Best thing we can do is stand aside and let her go down to defeat.  Fuck her.

  by simca on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:32:27 AM PDT

•  Her choice is obvious.

  It is her fear of the GOP that keeps her from voting for what she knows is right.
  And, in the end, the GOP will still spin her vote, and she will find she will have to defend herself from their lies. She can either defend her good vote or defend a poor weak one.

  by wisteria on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:33:27 AM PDT

•  If you're going to lose, lose standing for

  something.  You'll sleep a lot better.

  by illinifan17 on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:36:11 AM PDT

  •  Exactly.

    by Mike Peterson on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:38:28 AM PDT

•  Get a backbone!

  This message needs to be given all of the Dems, especially Rep. Markey from Ft. Collins.  There is no positive in going against the President.  I think this was a well thought out article that should be required reading by all Dems.

  by boda 47 on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:39:56 AM PDT

•  I don't know Senator Lincoln, I don't live in

  Alabama although  do know quite a bit about Southern politics.  You ask for 'some reasons' she doesn't seem to want to fight for her seat?  maybe she is just tired of the insults, the hostility and antagonism thrown at here by the progressive community. I know I am and I am as private a person as can be.

  From what I've read she doesn't need it, she probably has a good job waiting, in the healthcare industry? maybe.  So if we are all supposed to be dedicated to electing 'Better Democrats' speak up people, who would YOU like to see as Senator from Alabama?  start offering solutions instead of always blaming and labelling people problems

  Oh, right, I get it, you are paid to be negative!!!.

  I honstly don't know why anyone would want to be a politician these days, you know you can't please everyone and until the internet came along one only really had to worry about those who could actually vote for you. We are insiduously destroying the entire political system in my opinion with this constant carping.

  I refuse to even listen to Ed Schultz on MSNBC anymore, he is so negative and insulting.

  Why not give Senator Lincoln some reason to think the Progressivesa might reqard her with love if she does the right thing?

  by soccergrandmom on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:40:21 AM PDT

  •  Lincoln is from Arkansas, not Alabama

    it is very, very different

    by carolita on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 11:40:59 AM PDT

    •  oh sorry, I knew that. You and I have discussed

      the realities of her position in other threads.  Sorry. It is largely because of comments you and others have made that I know the little i do know about Senator Lincoln. I beleive it might even have been you who said rumours were that she might be going to a health care lobbying job if she chooses not to run or loses?

      Thanks for the correction. I'll try and be more careful.  I must have had Alamaba on my mind.

      by soccergrandmom on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 11:46:19 AM PDT

•  States with most uninsured?

  Has a study published which states have the highest rate of uninsured?

  by sirclown on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:42:42 AM PDT

•  I think Lincoln has been told by the White House

  and others what she needs to do to regain footing in Arkansas.  She needs to not only vote for the bill, but also defend it.  She did vote for Baucus' bill, so from a GOP standpoint, she's already in bed with ultra liberals like Bernie Sanders.  

  I think, though, her nature is too timid to be a real fighter, but I think she can be coaxed to vote for the bill (promise her a cushy job after she loses?)

  by khyber900 on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:43:20 AM PDT

•  time to revoke filibuster in Senate so

  legislation is not dragged under by these faux democrats.

  by LRT on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:48:08 AM PDT

•  Dithering and Slithering

  is how'd I'd describe it. WWPD? What would Patton [George] do? Full frontal assault. She would get respect and votes for bravery. Now she is showing cowardice and she bleeds in the water.

  by stevelaudig on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:48:33 AM PDT

•  Why does everybody assume

  that she's trying to get re-elected? Seems pretty obvious that she's positioning herself for a job after she loses.

  by Tyrannocaster on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:51:07 AM PDT

•  Actually wrote about this idea yesterday

  in a diary. here.

  by Liberal Youth on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:53:46 AM PDT

•  Bye, Bye Blanche. n/t

  by Trial Lawyer Richard on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 08:54:40 AM PDT

•  Blanche - We will send MONEY!

  Ms. Lincoln needs to realize that President Obama won because he out fund-raised the opposition because of the net roots.  If she stands with us on health care reform the net roots will send more money than she could ever hope to raise from her corporate buddies.  And with that money, Blanche will be able to tell her side of the story.  How she stood up to the rich insurance executives for the poor hardworking people of Arkansas.... how she stood up for sick people who need insurance... and how she stood up for the young entrepreneurs to start new businesses without fear of a loved one getting sick and not being able to pay their doctor's bill.  

  by wombat on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 09:05:01 AM PDT

•  Its Identity Politics, Stupid

  I suspect that the strategists Lincoln hired to get her reelected are well aware of the "Blanche needs to be a fighting dem to get reelected" argument and while I think she'd be better off following its logic, I can see the other side of the argument.  First, most voters, and especially Arkansas voters, don't typically vote their interests in elections (hence why GWB won 2 elections and the GOP has been the dominant party since Reagan).  So while they may support public option and other great progressive ideas, they have a hard time voting for the politicians (democrats) that will deliver them.  Lincoln and her strategists are gaming this irrational nature of voters into their calculations, while the netroots are downplaying it.  Lincoln is positioning herself based on the current state of identity politics in Arkansas, where Obama and liberals will likely be public enemies nubmer 1 and 2 come November 2010.  I agree that Lincoln's strategy is flawed, but its not stupid.  She's not oblivious to the polling, she is just well aware that Arkansas voters won't vote their interests or reward her in November reagrdless.  They will vote for her if they identify with her (ie, that she's not some northeastern liberal who pals around with Obama), not whether she delivers for them.

  by jcbhan on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 09:29:45 AM PDT

  •  Don't need to be a northeastern liberal to suppor

    t health care reform.  In fact, one could play the populist quite easily in Arkansas.  She appears so weak today that one wonders how she got elected in the first place.

    by tomkraj on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 10:10:05 AM PDT

•  Arkansas is Conservative?

  The home of Bill Clinton and Wes Clarke is just not that Conservative. Their Democratic Governor and Democratic controlled state legislative branch two Democratic Senators and three of their four Congressional Reps being Democrats all combine to make that pretty clear. Blanche Lincoln is ripe for a primary challenge from her left. Where the voters of Arkansas are. Democrats should be tossing out a Blue Dog who does not need to be a Blue Dog.  As for  Obama not doing well in Arkansas remember he beat former Arkansas First Lady Hillary Clinton to get the Democratic nomination. His not doing well there in the general election doesn't mean Arkansas took a right turn. It means they wanted Hillary to win the Democratic nomination and were not Obama fans after he beat her. The only thing Blanche Lincoln should fear is Democrats who might decide they would rather be represented by a REAL Democrat..

  by Six Joe Pack on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 09:38:30 AM PDT

  •  Thats a good surve at Arkansas' political terrain

    I don't think the presidential election is a good gauge of Arkansas voters unless you take local situations into account.

    Add in that Obama never campaigned here, or even had much of a field office even after he won the primary, and it is no surprise he didn't do well. But even at that, he still won nearly half of the counties. Unfortunately, they were those with low populations, while he lost the two main population centers in Little Rock and NW Arkansas (where McCain and even - God help us -- Dick Cheney came to campaign on numerous occasions).

    A little more attention to NWArk could have produced different results. We were fighting up until the end for a polling place near the campus to facilitate younger people voting, but we were without any support from the Dem Party and could not afford a legal challenge. Given there is no public transportation, that was enough of a problem to cost us a lot of votes. In addition, there were active attempts to suppress the black vote, particularly in the Delta, which reduced the number of votes even in counties he won.

    Lincoln knows her demographic a hell of a lot better than the White House or the national party. This is a heavily Dem state, but people want someone deliberative, not reactionary. And she has the added baggage of being female, which means she cannot present herself as a fighter like many on the left would apparently prefer. That would be far more damaging than any one vote.

    Lincoln's strength is the chairmanship of the Ag Committee. That is worth real $$ and votes here -- she has clout where it counts. And she is smart enough to protect that. If the Dems strip Holy Joe's chairmanship, it would give Lincoln all the cover she needs to vote for HCR.

    by carolita on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 12:07:51 PM PDT

•  We Can't Afford To Let Blanche Kill Health Care

  Blue America has run TV spots against Lincoln all summer and fall and she's watched her re-elect numbers dwindle down to a place where if a serious opponent-- i.e., one with big bucks to buy advertising-- jumped into the race, she would lose. She may lose anyway, even though her current opponents would probably do better if they toured together as a carnival freak show. Yesterday, as Laura mentioned, the RNC started their own campaign against her, trying to push her to vote with Republicans-- as she so often does-- and against health care reform.

  This week Blue America and our friends at Cannonball Productions have a brand new ad for Arkansas voters to look at-- the fourth in our series-- and the message is very different from the Republicans'. By all means, be the one of the first to view it-- and please consider making a contribution of our Campaign for Health Care Choice page so we can run it deep and wide.

  by downwithtyranny on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 09:39:11 AM PDT

•  I would like to think..

  that good public policy is ultimately good politics.  A good health care plan can certainly be sold to the people of Arkansas.  For example, who could oppose opening up health care insurance to more competition?  Remove the antitrust exemption so that private insurance companies can compete meaningfully and make a public option available to everyone.  If the insurance companies can do better than the government (and all those who worship at the altar of capitalism would argue that they can)--great.  The people of Arkansas would buy this, and Lincoln's support for such a plan would be an electoral asset.

  The reticence of many democratic elected officials has nothing to do with people being opposed to meaningful health care reform or other sensible legislation.  They just listen to their (corporate) masters voices.  The large corporations have pulled the strings for so long in Washington that the concept of doing things that are right for the American people seems strange and makes politicians uncomfortable.  There are exceptions.  Paul Wellstone was a glorious exception, Bernie Sanders is wonderful, and although many on the Dailykos site disparage him, Dennis Kucinich certainly votes his conscience.  In spite of these exceptions, the large corporations still call the shots on health care, climate disruption, financial reform, etc. etc.

  by Eric Blair on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 09:40:30 AM PDT

•  For Some Reason Voters Prefer Strength to Weak..

  ness.  Played the game for 39 years and that is the way it is.  The voters don't much care what you stand for as long as you do so Strongly.  She is just a state line from Huey Long.  Take a lesson.  

  by tomkraj on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 10:04:09 AM PDT

  •  A lesson too many Democrats don't learn.

    Instead they learn faux "lessons" like the bogus claim that cohesion led to the Republicans' collapse.  No, it was their shitty policies.

    by TheUnknown285 on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 10:43:47 AM PDT

•  The Harry Truman strategy

  This is exactly what Truman faced in 1948. When Progressives threatened to abandon him for Henry Wallace and Dixiecrats abandoned him for Thurmond, Harry Truman defied the odds by going on the road, getting very populist, and lampooning Dewey and the do-nothing GOP Congress. It worked spectacularly.

  Playing rear-guard does not work.

  by Elrod on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 12:36:27 PM PDT

•  Don't be ridiculous

  Blanche Lincoln is a wholly-owned-and-operated subsidiary of Wal*Mart, Inc.  She's never going to do ANYTHING to tick off her corporate masters.

  So you can look forward to Lincoln carrying on with her uninspiring performance, and getting soundly defeated by whatever crazy-ass teabagger runs against her as a Republican.  

  The Walton family is probably interviewing candidates as we speak.

  by Pope Buck I on Tue Nov 10, 2009 at 01:20:29 PM PDT