An absolutely ignorant piece on the October jobs report was published yesterday by Floyd Norris where he essentially cherry picks his data and completely ignores seasonal adjustments.
Mr. Norris actually makes this statement (possibly the most uninformed I have ever seen out of the NYT)
The adjustments are for seasonality. For some reason, October is the month with the largest seasonal adjustment down in jobs.
Really? You have no idea why October would have the largest seasonal adjustment down? Ever heard of Christmas? Holiday hiring perhaps? The idiocy of this almost mind numbing, but Mr. Norris isn't quite done:
But I suspect seasonal factors are less important this year, when the economy may be changing directions, than they normally are.
Why would that be Mr. Norris? Unless you have a reason to believe there has been 0 holiday hiring please keep your uninformed opinions to yourself.
Having said all of that, a valid question can be raised about the seasonal adjustment applied to the Establishment Survey numbers this month, as the BLS actually increased its seasonal adjustment (from a 5 year average of -.72 to -.91 this year). That change alone accounted for the entire job loss in October and does need to be explained as to why the adjustment was increased (unless the BLS thinks there will be more holiday hiring than usual).
Seasonal adjustments are important because they enable us to see what is actually going on with economic statistics without being blinded by regular yearly changes (ie payrolls drop big in January and July every year and gain in Spring and Fall). To try to completely dismiss seasonal adjustments is not only irresponsible, but it sets Mr. Norris up for a big surprise when January's non-adjusted data comes in at -2 million jobs (because if Mr. Norris is arguing that the changes in our economy eliminated holiday hiring this year, then it those jobs aren't there for the seasonal firing either).
I would encourage the New York Times to consider what it allows to be published under its banner, because crap like this may be a reason readership is down dramatically.