From CDC Thursday on a new estimate of United States cases:
The Numbers
- CDC estimates that between 14 million and 34 million cases of 2009 H1N1 occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 22 million people infected with 2009 H1N1.
- CDC estimates that between about 63,000 and 153,000 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 98,000 H1N1-related hospitalizations.
- CDC estimates that between about 2,500 and 6,000 2009 H1N1-related deaths occurred between April and October 17, 2009. The mid-level in this range is about 3,900 2009 H1N1-related deaths.
That's a lot of flu.
An average estimated 200,000 flu-related hospitalizations occur in the United States each year, with about 60 percent of these hospitalizations occurring in people 65 years and older.
But what makes this different is that instead of 60% of hospitalizations and 90% of deaths being older than 65, this flu is the opposite. 11% of hospitalizations and 11% of deaths are over 65. The table at this link breaks the guesstimates down by age. Anne Schuchat (CDC) had this to add:
So in children under 18, we estimate 8 million children have been ill with influenza, 36,000 hospitalized, and 540 children have died from this pandemic influenza. In the first six months of the pandemic for adults 18 to 64 years of age, we estimate 12 million cases, 53,000 hospitalizations, and 2900 deaths. For people 65 and over, we estimate about 2 million cases, 9,000 hospitalizations and about 440 deaths. That’s a lot of numbers.
This does not make the pandemic any different than it has been. These are just better estimates of the impact. Models like this take time to put together; you cannot measure every flu case in the country. There are not enough labs or testing kits. And we are not done. While the illness throughout the country is perhaps reaching a peak, we will know better in a week or so.
And 'third waves' are known to happen with pandemics, so get your shot before spring.
Vaccine continues to make its way out to the public. If you are a high risk goup, get it when and where you can. if you are not, your turn will come. Pregnant women and children first.
It's up to the states to distribute vaccine. Call your health department to find out more. If there's no vacccine this week, there may be next week. If you live in NYC, and are high risk, go here. And if you are from some other area of the country, feel free to post schedules if you see them, or try the new Google flu locator.
And (almost the) last word from Anne Schuchat:
Influenza is serious. Vaccination is the best effort to protect one's self or family. These efforts give a bigger picture of what's going on and reaffirm the priority recommendations we've given. We focus vaccination on younger people because they are disproportionately affected with the virus.
The next time public health asks for money in the budget, give it to them.