Targeting Republican representatives who voted against health care reform and represent districts that Obama won is a win-win.
Let's just start with the fact that constituent pressure is what works. Those living in GOP/Obama districts shouldn't be calling other members of Congress anyway. They have two options: work their own rep. or call Obama supporters in other districts and get them to contact their reps. The latter is obviously worthwhile (and being done), but the former is as well.
The most obvious benefit is if a representative's vote actually changes. The chances of actually swaying one of these GOP votes on HCR is next to none (Cao was the only one on the first vote), but even if it doesn't happen, Democrats get several benefits from targeting GOP reps who rep Obama districts.
- Keeping people involved. It's important to Democrats up and down the ballot that Obama supporters are engaged. These people are more likely to vote for Democrats elsewhere on the ballot, and on Election Day, it's easier to GOTV folks who have been involved in issue advocacy during the rest of the cycle.
- The DCCC wants to target every Republican who represents a district that Obama won. In addition to the stimulus and other votes, they've also been hitting these reps on health care. OFA going after these representatives softens them up for the DCCC and whatever Dem is going to challenge them. (One reason why the challenge against Collins didn't work in 2008 is that it's just so hard to win when the opponent's approval and favorability ratings are high at the beginning of the election cycle. Constantly pressuring GOPers can keep their support softer and make it easier for Democrats to recruit challengers and make challenges more likely to succeed. It's important to get Democrats in seats that Obama won. Democrats in districts that Obama won (regardless of ideology) have been much easier votes to get for health care reform (and a whole host of other legislation). (On health care, there was a suburban/urban v. rural divide in the Blue Dog Coalition. Some of that had to do with the Medicare reimbursement rates issue, but another factor was that Obama won those suburban/urban districts and lost the rural ones.)"
- Local OFA groups can get local media coverage. We've seen enough of the teabaggers. Representatives can be swayed by what they see their local media covering, and again, even if they're not swayed, we're softening them up for a Democratic challenger. In addition, elevating an issue that Democrats poll better on than Republicans is a good thing. (We saw the difference it made in 2004, when Bush was able to convince a significant number of voters that even though he wasn't with them on bread and butter issues, that he'd keep them safe. There were voters who thought, it doesn't matter if I have Social Security in 20 years, if I'm killed by a terrorist.)
- Issue IDs. Issue IDs are used to target voters. It's a way of indicating what motivates them to get out and vote. The canvassing and phonebanking conducted by OFA to gather issue IDs will make targeting and GOTV easier and more effective. In addition, even IDs that are not shared directly can be used by others to create models which again is helpful.
Note that OFA is not just targeting GOP reps in Obama districts. They are also targeting Democrats that voted against health care reform. (My Dem representative was having a town hall and voted nay on HCR, and I got an email asking you to attend that town hall.) They also ran ads in districts where of Democrats who were wavering on HCR.