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Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 11/16-18. Likely voters MoE 4% (1/26-28 results)

Republican Primary

Charlie Crist (R) 47 (57)
Marco Rubio   (R) 37 (4)

That's a 43-point swing in the last 10 months. Dramatic. Now we wanted to know where Rubio's support was coming from, and so we decided to see if there was a correlation between the birthers -- the craziest of the GOP's base -- and this primary.

Do you believe that Barack Obama was born in the United States of America, or not? (Asked only of GOP primary voters)

Yes   35
No    29
Not Sure 36

Was Obama born in US?  
              Yes    No  Not sure
     Crist     73    31    33
     Rubio     16    54    45

Wow. Clear correlation. The crazier the Republican, the better Rubio does. Of the sanest Republicans -- those who don't buy into the crazy birther conspiracy theories, only 16 percent support Rubio compared to the whopping 73 percent who support Crist. The governor's problem is that only 35 percent of Florida Republicans fall under that category. Note the birther crosstabs for both the general and GOP primary election samples -- the general election sample is less crazy, with 57 percent of Republicans saying Obama was born in the US, compared to 35 percent of likely GOP primary voters.

These trendlines are bleak for Crist, and there's little chance of him surviving. Remember, Rubio hasn't spent a dime on media yet. This is all grassroots driven, and the teabaggers are engaged, angry, and looking for the next Scozzafava. Crist is in their crosshairs, and the governor has been flopping all over the place hoping to stem this growing tide against him, and failing. Note -- 50 percent of Republicans still don't know who Rubio is. The more he raises his name ID, the better he does.  

We decided to see how Crist would perform in a general election as a Republican, Democrat, and Independent:

All likely voters

Crist (R) 50
Meek  (D) 33

Rubio (R) 30
Meek  (D) 38

Don't get too excited with those Rubio/Meek numbers. 40 percent of Republicans are inexplicably "undecided" on that question. They'd come home.

Now for the hypotheticals:

Crist (I) 32
Rubio (R) 27
Meek  (D) 31

Rubio (R) 34
Crist (D) 45

The three-way matchup is a statistical dead-heat, with the biggest undecided block being Democrats. Independents break 45% Crist, 27% Meek, and 22% Rubio. That would be an almost exact replay of NY-23.

On the two-way matchup with Crist as a Democrat, a third of Democrats are undecided. They'd like proof that Crist was a real Democrat, I'm sure. But ultimately, most would come home rather than give the birther-teabagger candidate the Senate seat. A quarter of independents are also undecided, though I won't pretend to guess what they'd do. Those who know what they want break 40 percent for Crist, 34 percent for Rubio.

If I'm Charlie Crist, I realize that I'm toast in the Republican primary. I note that a three-way race is a coin flip at best. But as a Democrat... switching parties and making an earnest transition on the issues would be the cleanest path to a Senate seat.

Whether we'd want him as a Democrat is another story, and one that would depend heavily on how he managed his party switch. But it's clear that he's no longer welcome in his own party. And he has a choice to make -- remain as a hated interloper in his existing party, or try to find a more hospitable home elsewhere.

p.s. We also polled the governor's race -- it's a dead heat between Republican Bill McCollum (35), Democrat Alex Sink (33), and Undecided (32).

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:29 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  It don't add up bro (4+ / 0-)

             Yes    No  Not sure
        Crist     73    31    33

    Uhm that's more crazy than the birthers!

  •  Crist is gonna lose (13+ / 0-)

    then he can finally come out of the closet....

    Visit Druggybear's Den:

    by Druggy Bear on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:31:07 PM PST

    •  Here are Crist's option (s) (5+ / 0-)

      Become an Independent or Democrat or lose....period.

      "I feel stupid and contagious. Here we are now, entertain us" - Kurt Cobain 1991

      by Jeff Y on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:55:20 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Or run for reelection (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        TomP, Jeff Y

        and stay in Tallahassee.  Although McCollum might not be shoved aside too easily and could essentially reprise Rubio's role in the Senate race.

        I'mma let you finish, Barack, but the teabaggers have done about the most for international peace of all time.--The collective GOP 10/9/09

        by Superribbie on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:11:35 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  On the bright side... (4+ / 0-)

      If he becomes a Democrat, we don't have so much the problem with the gays*.  I mean, if he was...  which apparently he's not...  not that there's anything wrong with that...

      * - Not applicable in all 50 states, weddings or military service.  

      •  um, totally the OPPOSITE actually. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bay of arizona

        It will represent the Democratic coalition's cravenly tossing Meeks, an friend and advocate to the GLBT community aside, for the "easy" win of a seat, for a man, CRIST, who has been a foe to the gay community, on the issue of marriage equality and supporting a ban on gays adopting.

        I don't care what Crist's orientation is, he's a foe to the gay community. If Democrats embrace him, they need to revise page 52 of the Democratic platform:

        We will support the full inclusion of all families, including same-sex couples, in the life of our nation, and support equal responsibility, benefits, and protections We will enact a comprehensive bipartisan employment non-discrimination act. We oppose the Defense of Marriage Act and all attempts to use this issue to divide us.


        Marriage is one of the "basic civil rights of man" Loving v. Virginia

        by Scott Wooledge on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:33:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well... (0+ / 0-)

          If you think the Democratic platform is anything other than a PR message, I present you an excerpt about health care:

          Covering All Americans and Providing Real Choices of Affordable Health Insurance Options.  Families and  individuals should have the option of keeping the coverage they have or choosing from a wide array of health insurance plans, including many private health insurance options and a public plan. Coverage should be made affordable for all Americans with subsidies provided through tax credits and other means.

          Seems we've got a lot of Dems who find that element of the platform optional.

          Don't get me wrong, I have no doubt that the Dems will push Meeks out to get the seat via Crist.  They only care about winning seats, not about who wins the seats.  Which is incidentally why we have primaries so that we can try to influence the outcomes in spite of the party plans.

          •  Of course I'm not naive enough (0+ / 0-)

            to not know this:

            If you think the Democratic platform is anything other than a PR message

            I'm just pointing out Crist will obstruct on any GLBT friendly legislation, so in 2011, 2012, anyone who supports him can't be surprised if in 3 years the GLBT community is still mad about DOMA & DADT still being around being in effect and Congressional Dems still complaining they don't have the votes.

            The DNC and other Dem organizations will be speaking to a brick wall when they say to GLBT community "We need more Dems, send us money, send us votes!"

            Marriage is one of the "basic civil rights of man" Loving v. Virginia

            by Scott Wooledge on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 02:06:36 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

  •  Not all that surprising (8+ / 0-)

    Given the attention the nutjobs have been giving to this race.  I do wish we had a stronger candidate than Meek because if Rubio wins the primary, this would be a winnable race.  OTOH, Meek's presence on the ticket will help Sink.  And that race is more important because of redistricting.

    "And the biggest self of self is, indeed, self." Mark Sanford

    by Paleo on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:31:49 PM PST

    •  Charlie (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      might be inclined to drop out of the Senate race and run for re-election as Governor after all.... and don't underestimate George LeMieux deciding he likes it in Washington after all..

      I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man's reasoning powers are not above the monkey's. - Mark Twain

      by route66 on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:09:33 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  On a more serious note... (2+ / 0-)

    Thirty-Forty% of the GOP voters want harm of Obama and are plainly racist.

    What's new?

  •  Charlie Crist (9+ / 0-)
    I wonder how much humiliation he will have to take to get the message that he's not welcome in the GOP.
  •  Damn (0+ / 0-)

    I was excited about the Rubio vs Meek numbers until I saw your qualifier. Guess I shoulda known it was too good to be true.

    BTW looking at the crosstabs I can't see the full results of Crist (I) vs Rubio (R) vs Meek (D), Crist's numbers don't show up.

    Well, a satirical piece in the Times is one thing, but bricks and baseball bats really gets right to the point. - Woody Allen, "Manhattan"

    by schmiss on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:33:07 PM PST

  •  Robert Siegel (4+ / 0-)

    interviewed Rubio at a retirement home where Rubio accidentally proclaimed "no one man can save America" and all the Jesus people groaned and booed. And Rubio wouldn't let it go and argued them down and reiterated his point. The old timers, of course, knew Jesus could save America. Too funny.

    "Reagan is a conservative. An extreme conservative. All the blockheads and dummies are for him." -Bush H.W. Bush

    by plok on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:33:12 PM PST

  •  When does commonsense prevail... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cybrestrike, mdmslle

    or when does America get serious about education and civics education reform?

    •  Like that'll happen. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ssgbryan, mdmslle

      Too many elements in our irreversibly immoral, insidiously corrupt, and intellectually dishonest government (read: Congress) like the ants (read: The American People) dumb and under their thumb.

      "We may have to sacrifice two more jobs to get millions more for Americans." Peter DeFazio

      by cybrestrike on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:39:29 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Is there a worse brand than "Meek" for a Democrat (10+ / 0-)

    I know it's his name, but yikes.

  •  If it was worth welcoming Specter to pick up (16+ / 0-)

    a Senate seat, I think it's also worth welcoming Crist.

    The influence of the [executive] has increased, is increasing, and ought to be diminished.

    by lysias on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:34:07 PM PST

  •  The economy (15+ / 0-)

    is killing Crist.  If you track his dissaproval against the Florida unemployment rate, you find a very close association over the last 5 months.

    It's interesting to compare Strickland's numbers in Ohio and Crist numbers in Florida against the uunemployment trends in each.

    What this suggests is that there is an emerging anti-incumbent wave in 2010 as opposed to an anti-Democratic wave.

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:35:34 PM PST

    •  I'm not there anymore but all this (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      punditocracy talk that Crist is popular is crazy. I'm glad we finally have a poll that's starting to show it. It's the economy stupid. Many people like me, who were Floridians, moved since Chain Gang Charlie was first elected in 2006. And, we're still property owners and it is killing us.

      That Orlando Sentinel special series of Florida's Growth patterns from last week is a must read. It's come to a standstill in the last three years.

      The budget that Jeb! left in Tallahassee wasn't pretty and Florida's economic collapse has made matters much worse on Charlie's watch...

    •  well, (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Newsie8200, TomP

      that and the fact that he's been invisible for the last five months busy running for office and raising money and shamelessly pandering to the right wing crazy...

      the economy has sucked here for quite some time.

      Crist is neglectful in about equal measure as Palin. At least she had the chutzpah to quit officially.

      /end rant

      •  For most of the past 10 years (0+ / 0-)

        Florida has grown faster than the rest of the country and has had an unemployment rate lower than the rest of the country.

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 02:12:31 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  "Whether we'd want him as a Democrat... (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, freespeech, TomP, filby, mdmslle another story."

    Well, yeah, that's the $64,000 question.  Short of being the warm body that helps the Dems retain a majority in the Senate, I don't particularly care about what he calls himself.  The question is, will he vote with us, and how big a pain in the ass will he be when he doesn't want to?

    "Nonsense!" said Alice, very loudly and decidedly, and the Queen was silent.

    by RIposte on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:35:37 PM PST

  •  Lets go Mario! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, filby, cybrestrike, lilkymbo

    Crist also took another faceplant today.  According to ESPN he stood up for Bobby Bowden, not a popular move in Florida right now.

    "Polls are like crack, political activists know they're bad for them but they read them anyways."-Unknown

    by skywaker9 on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:37:25 PM PST

  •  Bring out the popcorn! GOP blood bath (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, cybrestrike, lilkymbo

    going to happen in Florida!

    Obama 7/09: "Don't bet against us" (unless the Dems screw it up).

    by Drdemocrat on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:37:46 PM PST

  •  Palin/Beck 2012! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, mdmslle

    Democratic Party - A loose coalition of warring tribes.

    by hideinplainsight on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:38:19 PM PST

  •  The people who just can't believe (6+ / 0-)

    Obama is really President want to send someone as angry as they are to Washington.

    Rubio could probably be flanked on the right if someone who promised to impeach Obama would run.

    In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice; but in practice, there always is a difference. - Yogi Berra

    by blue aardvark on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:38:55 PM PST

  •  Fascinating! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    cybrestrike, PaulFromMO

    If I were Crist id switch over to D. But if he takes the fall then Meek has a great shot at becoming US senator.

    •  he wont do it. crist has national (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      majcmb1, TomP

      aspirations and i'm not sure how a party switch would play into that.

      charlie mostly only cares about charlie and his own aspirations. he's pretty good at political calculation.

      if there's little or nothing in it for charlie or if the outcome isnt assured, he's out.

      honestly, I fully expect to hear charlie withdraw for some family member's (his "wife's") "medical problem" (which we wont be able to confirm for sure). This way he escapes an ugly race, stays a republican (moderate GOPers might be in vogue by by the party by 2016) and looks like the "un-edwards" candidate putting his political career aside to help his wife through a "difficult time".

      if these numbers keep tanking, expect it. Charlie wont take the loss. No. way.

  •  This talk of Crist as a Democrat is absurd (7+ / 0-)

    he isn't close to one.

    I read this stuff from people outside the state and I shake my head. No Democrat I know in the state takes that seriously.

    He is a tax cutting Repug.

    The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

    by fladem on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:40:52 PM PST

    •  ah, I don't know about that (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Odysseus, TomP, mdmslle, AKMask, PaulFromMO

      I mean, yes he tends towards tax cutting, but unlike most other repubs, I get the sense that his personal leanings are towards the center.  he's far closer to Bill nelson than Rubio and closer to a Nelson than to say Jeb Bush.

      He would be a typical corporate democrat if he switched parties.  that said, I don't see him switching, but it's not because his positions are inconsistent with the conservative dems.  It's because of his history.  That's what the outsiders don't get.  He really identifies with the Republican party machine and I think the poll shows how little the sane republicans think of Rubio.  I don't think he would be convinced he was going to lose until it was too late to change.

      But I could be wrong.  It's clear that he fancies himself a moderate even while trying to act like conservatives want him to act.  maybe he'll see the writing on the wall and switch in the next few months.  "I didn't leave the party, the party left me"

      Want a progressive global warming novel, not a right wing rant? Go to for a free audio thriller.

      by eparrot on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:54:01 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  My problem is ... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        eparrot, Dichro Gal

        I'm already quite unhappy with Bill Nelson.  So while I'd say you're right about Crist being closer to Nelson than he is to Bush, that doesn't exactly recommend him to me.

        But I suppose if it comes down to Rubio (R) vs. Crist (D), I'd have to hold my nose yet again.

        "I agree with you, I want to do it, now make me do it." - Franklin D. Roosevelt

        by jrooth on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:22:07 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

    •  So is Tom Carper (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      and he was elected to two terms as a Democratic governor in Delaware.

  •  No way will Crist switch (6+ / 0-)

    He might just sit out politics for a few years while things get sorted out, but I can't see him becoming a Democrat.

    "All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." --I.F. Stone

    by Alice in Florida on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:41:03 PM PST

  •  er (6+ / 0-)

    Since Meek does well against Rubio, let's hope he defeats Crist in the primary. Why do we want another DINO? I don't understand this - you want defeat Specter but you want Crist to switch parties?

    Palin/Limbaugh - Rogue/Frog - 2012!

    by freespeech on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:41:35 PM PST

    •  I agree. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      TomP, Clarknt67

      The teabaggers are making it very easy for the Democrats to pick up some blue seats. Then the DNC can thank the teabaggers for their efforts XD

    •  Meek is not that strong against (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jrooth, Dichro Gal, xsonogall

      Rubio, and the last thing we need is a solid wingnut representing us in the US Senate.

      "All governments lie, but disaster lies in wait for countries whose officials smoke the same hashish they give out." --I.F. Stone

      by Alice in Florida on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:43:17 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm a Floridian (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dichro Gal

      who doesn't see how Meeks has a broad enough base to defeat Rubio.  While we have some strong liberal enclaves I think Meeks is too weak to win in a state election. Without a stronger candidate, Florida is totally suseptible to falling into the past morass of Jeb Bush's conservatism.

      •  Why is Meek the only one running... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        ...for the Dems?  Can't anybody else step up?  How about Wasserman-Schultz?  

        "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

        by xsonogall on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:07:34 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  She's a rising star in the House (4+ / 0-)

          I'm sure she wouldn't want to give that up.

          I agree about Meek, though.  I lived in his district for a couple of years, so I paid some attention to him and I wasn't impressed.  I don't think he has a snowball's chance in a South Florida August afternoon of winning statewide.

          "I agree with you, I want to do it, now make me do it." - Franklin D. Roosevelt

          by jrooth on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:26:03 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

          •  Dems really need to start rethinking this then... (0+ / 0-)

            ...and start taking this race seriously.  There is a good chance for a pickup here if we put out a strong candidate in an Andrew Cuomo/Beau Biden mold, with name recognition and high favorability ratings.

            I say that like those types grow on trees or something.  Any suggestions?

            "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

            by xsonogall on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 02:04:10 PM PST

            [ Parent ]

      •  A South Florida liberal Democrats (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Inspector Javert

        has no chance of winning a statewide race in Florida.

        Meek isn't going to do it. Wasserman Schultz knows better. Unfortunately Meek is our likely candidate and this seat will remain in Republican hands.

        A fool will lose tomorrow reaching back for yesterday.

        by kansasr on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 02:16:03 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  Crist is left of (9+ / 0-)

    Ben nelson, Mary Landrieu, Blanche Lincoln, Joe Liebermann.  he's probably similar to Specter.  If elected, he would be the most liberal republican in the Senate.

    And actually, watching him here in Florida, his instincts are actually more left than how he's governed.  I don't particularly like the guy because I think he's far too much of an opportunist.  It would be a tough choice for me whether to vote for him or vote third party if he ran as a dem, but I actually like him better than Bill Nelson.

    As for a Rubio vs. Meeks matchup, I think Meeks would win if he runs a decent campaign (see Deeds, Creigh for how NOT to win).  But it would be close all the way.  What I don't know about is how far out Rubio really will go.  If he acts like a typical Club For Growth guy with a few minor sops to the teabaggers, he can beat Meeks.  If he goes the full teabag, that's not gonna fly in a general election.  Most of the moderates around here don't have patience for that crap.

    Want a progressive global warming novel, not a right wing rant? Go to for a free audio thriller.

    by eparrot on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:43:41 PM PST

  •  The Democrats should run ads of all the (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ukit, PaulFromMO

    crazy GOP statements and teabagging protests.   That alone should scare Democrats Dem-leaning Indies to the polls.  The GOP's nutjob base is our best hope for holding a majority in both chambers of Congress.

  •  Crist is one of the few Republicans I kinda like (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    filby, AKMask, PaulFromMO

    So it figures that Republicans don't like him.

    Fight the stupid! Boycott BREAKING diaries!

    by VelvetElvis on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:44:12 PM PST

    •  and how can you like him??! He fucked FLA (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Inspector Javert

      did NOTHING on homeowners insurance
      and GAVE FLA away to developers

      Crist SUKS!

      How would Faux & Foxes cover this story?

      by surfdog on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:50:51 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  right on #1 and wrong on #2 (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Odysseus, mdmslle, PaulFromMO

        Florida was given away to developers long, long before Crist arrived.

        Want a progressive global warming novel, not a right wing rant? Go to for a free audio thriller.

        by eparrot on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:55:23 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  right on #1 and #2 (0+ / 0-)

          In the defining moment of his career Monday, Gov. Charlie Crist sold the state of Florida right down the river.

          He did it in a gutless fashion, too, waiting until the close of business to send out a brief announcement that he was signing Senate Bill 360.

          Look. If you're going to destroy your state to get elected to the U.S. Senate, be proud of it. Do it at a news conference. Surround yourself with bulldozers and smiling developers. Order a cake.

          But apparently he couldn't quite fit this one in with all those other bill-signing ceremonies he's been racking up:

          The battle for Florida is finished now. It's over.

          How would Faux & Foxes cover this story?

          by surfdog on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 07:08:32 PM PST

          [ Parent ]

  •  Old crazy birthers (0+ / 0-)

    The average Iq of a Florida Republican must be pretty low these days.

  •   Palin/Rush campaigning for Rubio (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ezdidit, TomP, mdmslle, PaulFromMO

    It's going to be a blast when the super conservative minority Rubio has Palin/Rush running around Florida. It will be the first time both Palin/Rush probably supported a Non-White Repulican. lol

    Mel Martinez was a flash in the pan. Not conservative enough. lol

  •  Rubio advantage not known. Also his disadvantage. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, Dichro Gal

    Rubio is an unknown to a lot of the GOP voters so he gets a benefit from the racist, religious base vs. all the voters.  Crist has to prove it in the GOP. Can he be the moderate leader or not.

    Crist's best move is not to pull out but to pull a Lieberman if he loses the GOP nomination. Proves himself a political power or not.  It really is better for US and GOP if Crist wins. The GOP is scarily bereft of sane leadership and it's a real danger to the US.

  •  Great strategy KOS (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JC from IA

    If you can't beat them, bring them over to your side!

    So the game plan, as I understand it, is to create conditions favorable to Crist joining the Democrats, which means doing everything possible to make him less popular with his base.

    Then it's merely a question of presenting the best possible scenario for being elected, which is as a Dem, something that was inconceivable before.

    I support your continued campaign to destroy Charlie Crist.

    For those who think this isn't a good idea, who would you rather have, CRIST (D), or RUBIO (R)? Spector is about to vote to break a filibuster for Dems, think about that.

    •  It really makes very little functional difference (0+ / 0-)

      if it's Crist (D) or Rubio (R). Neither one of them will vote with us on anything but trivial issues. Real, important issues, they'll dig their heels in and obstruct. Crist from with in, Rubio from with out.

      Marriage is one of the "basic civil rights of man" Loving v. Virginia

      by Scott Wooledge on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:17:31 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Can we trade Christ for Lieberbush? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Can we make this trade?

  •  Crist wont have to 'prove' anything (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, Jay C, JayBat, PaulFromMO

    He may not be the most liberal of D's if he switches, but he's already shown he puts his principals first, and I'm more then willing to support him on our side as one of the 'good guys' for that alone.

    To wit: He made voter access a major component of his first run for Governor. C-SPAN coverage of rallies I watched had him give speeches about how embarassed he was for the state after 2000, making a court decide who won. His answer to what to do was more voters. Make it easier to vote. Let everybody do it. So in 2008, with early voting giving Obama an insurmountable lead in florida, with crowds too big for the state to handle, the national GOP came down on him hard. Tough luck for those folks whose line was too long to let them vote. Oh well. Shut it down, times up.

    What'd he do? A look at how many people were still trying to vote, and he held the voting stations open, for DAYS. Essentially handed the state to Obama, not because he wanted him to win per se, but because he wanted the peoples voices to be heard, regardless of who they were voting for.

    Someone like that earns points. With me, and I'd suspect with most Democrats. The Blue Dogs would be a lot easier to stomach if they truly felt they way they voted instead of just selling out, and Crist isn't even conservative enough to qualify as a Blue Dog in the first place.

    I say welcome him. Hell, we may even want to throw him up on act blue with 'pledges' that will go through if he switches parties, just to show him he's welcome.

  •  This just sucks. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    chrississippi, Clarknt67

    Why would we want any more of these recovery Republicans becoming Democrats so they can save their own elected butts?

    One Arlen Specter was one too many if you ask me.

    I don't want the liberal elite communists socializing my Nazism.

    by Kaili Joy Gray on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:48:59 PM PST

  •  Aw, hell, as soon as he switched, you'd be (0+ / 0-)

    the first to advocate primarying him.

    The stellar example set here on Specter will no doubt discourage defections for some time to come.

    Well done.

  •  Are we recruiting the wrong candidate? (7+ / 0-)

    Any chance we can get Undecided to run as a Dem for governor?

    Umm, that's PRESIDENT Obama and SENATOR Franken, mr. o'reilly.

    by filby on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:50:08 PM PST

  •  There's no way Crist is going to (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Meteor Blades, surfdog, Clarknt67
    become a Democrat.

    Meek is a good candidate and he can win.

    And I finished this letter with unshakable faith that the dream will be fulfilled for this generation, and preserved and enlarged for generations to come.

    by Elise on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:51:33 PM PST

  •  wow wow wow wow wow wow wow (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    50 percent of Repubs don't even know who he is, he hasn't spent any money on media yet, AND he is STILL only 10 points behind, making up a 43 point deficit. Charlie, the water is fine here, take the leap.

    "I don't want a line in the Sand lines can be moved. They can be blown away. I want a six foot trench carved into granite."

    by theone718 on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:54:21 PM PST

  •  crist believes in (small-d) democracy (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, hi5enigma, TomP

    He has worked to overturn Florida's Jim-Crow-inspired denial of voting rights to convicted felons after they've served their sentence and to establish real paper-trail-accountable voting machines statewide.

    Even though, as a Democrat, I voted against him for Gov, I admire the man.  Furthermore, I have promised my out-of-state-formerly-Republican sister to change my registration in time to vote for Crist and a sane GOP in the primary next August.

    However, I may not be able to resist the temptation to throw in a vote for Palin and the Teabagger Death Spiral in the 2012 presidential primary...

  •  Florida needs an exorcism ... (0+ / 0-)

    Hey, Sunshine State, "The body politic of Crist compels you!"

    The Republican brand: "Consequences, schmonsequences, as long as I'm rich"

    by D in Northern Virginia on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:55:11 PM PST

  •  I think Crist is gonna be pushed aside (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Clarknt67, mdmslle

    and I want to congratulate the Democratic primary winner on his or her victory in 2010.

    the Birthers are now a majority in the Republican Party. Thats where this country is. /sigh.

    I hated Glenn Beck before it was cool.

    by ChrisFromMaine on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:55:39 PM PST

  •  From this A.M.s St Pete times... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Governor, if you're reading this, here are five things you should do to fight Rubio's insurgent threat:

    1. Govern. Enough with the constant fundraising trips to places like Vegas and Arizona, and with the superficial photo ops. Put your head down and actually accomplish something.

    Even if it's a token something — say, finally hammering out a gaming deal you don't especially like — do enough where you can declare victory with a straight face. Better yet, come up some kind of jobs program. Maybe accelerate state contracts to put more Floridians to work.

    And hard as it may be, stay away from those staged media events and lighter-than-air press conferences. The images of you praising cops or kids or running to the cameras whenever some big crime story erupts are wearing thin in this grim economy. So unless the media hit involves the creation of at least 10 jobs, stay away.

    How would Faux & Foxes cover this story?

    by surfdog on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:55:42 PM PST

  •  I'm sorry, but no. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I'd rather have a wingnutty Republican hold an open Republican seat than have Charlie Crist supposedly hold if for us as a D.

  •  Rubio named CPAC keynote speaker (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, PaulFromMO

    Florida Senate candidate Marco Rubio was announced Thursday as the keynote speaker of the Conservative Political Action Conference, a high-profile platform that marks Rubio’s fast climb as a favorite son of the conservative movement.

    CPAC Director Lisa De Pasquale made the announcement on the conference’s Twitter feed.

    "We chose Rubio because he is an upcoming leader. He is someone that a lot of people are excited about," De Pasquale told POLITICO. "His name keeps getting brought up, and we decided that he would be a good keynote for 2010."

    The keynote speaker gets the coveted 10 a.m. speaking slot that kicks off the conference on Thursday and gets a longer block of time than other CPAC speakers. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) got the slot last year.

    Rubio communications director Alex Burgos said that "Marco Rubio is honored by the invitation and opportunity. He looks forward to sharing his vision of why mainstream conservative Republicans are needed in Washington more than ever."

    Here we are now Entertain us I feel stupid and contagious

    by Scarce on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:57:55 PM PST

  •  Crist was liberal on the stimulus which means he (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    TomP, PaulFromMO

    will have trouble with Republican primary voters.

    Sorry I have to run to the Senate floor to abolish torture.

    by bten on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:58:16 PM PST

  •  Is it possible to pull a lieberman in Florida? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    If Crist loses the primary can he still run as an independent?

  •  Purity Test ! Purity Test ! (0+ / 0-)

    Paging Sarah Palin !

    "Whatever it takes, for as long as it takes! Healthcare For All!" Support HR 676 Healthcare For All Now!

    by ezdidit on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:58:30 PM PST

  •  Stop the Schadenfreude. (10+ / 0-)

    If Rubio wins the primary, we're screwed.
    He is not some goofball or lightweight. He's a telegenic former speaker of the house. He'll beat Meek. And in the process, Rubio is likely to do major damage to our gains in the Cuban-American community.

    Yes, it's funny to laugh at the silly republicans and their interneccine battles. But I'm a Floridian, and there's no way in hell I want to end up with an arch-conservative like Rubio. A poll like this is really bad news.

    "I told them on Inauguration Day. I said look into my eyes: no new enhancements." - President Johnny Gentle (Famous Crooner) - Infinite Jest

    by Johnny Gentle Famous Crooner on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 12:58:57 PM PST

  •  Lots of republicnas have given him lots of $ (0+ / 0-)

    my guess is Charlie has to ask some one for permission.

  •  I don't see it (0+ / 0-)

    Yeah, the trends aren't exactly great for Crist, but do you really think Rubio has room to grow?  His power base is souped up birthers and teabaggers; i.e., hard core political junkies and people who at least care enough to forward the latest bullshit e-mails from the lie factories.  Yes, it's the Florida Republican party, not the Florida population generally, but I suspect Rubio maxes out in the 40s.

  •  It would be tough for Crist to turn D. (0+ / 0-)

    The MSM would call foul and he would be FOXed to death.

    "I don't want socialized medicine. And don't touch my Medicare."

    by bluedonkey08 on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:00:06 PM PST

  •  Do we want Crist? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Odysseus, jrooth


    A -  We sure as hell don't want Rubio. If Meek turns out to be another Deeds and Rubio gets the seat, I think we can all agree we're worse off. If Meek has to run to the right to win, and votes as if he's continuously scared of getting beaten by a Conservative next election, is he going to be hugely better? Can Meek run as a strong Democrat and Win?

    B - As an R, if Crist wins his Primary it will because he went hard right, and he'll be scared poo-less of getting another Conservative challenger. He won't be on our side for anything. As a D Crist is far from the ideal choice, but having guys who owe you and can be bullied into voting your way has its advantages.

    C - From a media narrative perspective, every defector from the Republican camp helps us. It reinforces the story that the crazies are taking/have taken over the GOP, paints the Democrats as moderate-friendly, and undercuts the "America is a Middle-Right Nation" BS that still pops up.

    My response to Republicans who told me to leave the US if I didn't like the 2004 Election results: "To hell with that, we're taking this place back!"

    by Beomoose on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:01:59 PM PST

  •  My prediction: Crist will drop out soon. (0+ / 0-)

    No way he wins this primary with the crazies taking over the GOP.

    •  Only helps us (0+ / 0-)

      If he endorses Meeks. If he stays silent or backs Rubio, we're worse off.

      My response to Republicans who told me to leave the US if I didn't like the 2004 Election results: "To hell with that, we're taking this place back!"

      by Beomoose on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:05:05 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

    •  said the same above (0+ / 0-)

      Charlie's going to have a lot more trouble on his hands soon with the Scott Rothstein corruption investigation dating back to his days as AG.

      Charlie will drop out and drop back into the Governor race against Sink; McCollum would step aside if he did so.

      George LeMieux is going to want to tangle with Rubio as a sitting US Senator once Charlie drops out.

      I am quite sure now that often, very often, in matters concerning religion and politics a man's reasoning powers are not above the monkey's. - Mark Twain

      by route66 on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:14:45 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ah, but the crazies are more likely to actually (0+ / 0-)

    vote in a primary, which makes Crist a likely loser in the primary.  That's actually good, as it will make the difference seem even greater in a Rep/Dem/no third party candidate general election.

    Having credibility when making an argument is the straightest path to persuasion.

    by SpamNunn on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:05:47 PM PST

  •  Undecided about him (0+ / 0-)

    I think what you have to ask is whether he would become Specter, a reliable vote, or Bayh/Lieberman, a guy who tries to grandstand with obstruction.

  •  if there was magically a third party (0+ / 0-)

    and it was titled honestly "Batshit crazy nutjobs," it would attract some of each party (we Dems have our nutjobs)... but it would do in the Republican Party - they would essentially be split in half.

    Wow.  Crazy poll!

    Join us in the Grieving Room on Monday evenings to discuss mourning and loss.

    by Dem in the heart of Texas on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:09:21 PM PST

  •  I don't want Crist. He made his bed. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Marriage is one of the "basic civil rights of man" Loving v. Virginia

    by Scott Wooledge on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:10:49 PM PST

  •  I would take Crist as a Dem (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    He's not the sharpest needle in the cushion, but it's not like Florida Dems are littered with stars.  And Charlie is actually a pretty middle to left leaning guy for the most part.

  •  Another option for Charlie (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    is to say screw it, I am going to stay Governor.

  •  Speaking of Crazies (0+ / 0-)

    Stewart on Dobbs last night

    the only constant is change

    by tomnobombadil on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:15:17 PM PST

  •  If Charlie wants a spot in history (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    tietack, Inspector Javert

    he should switch parties while coming out of the closet at the same time. Pull a McGrevey. The Dems would embrae hims with open arms then.

  •  I'd accept Crist as a D - if he officially comes (0+ / 0-)

    out of the closet...

    It would be the kind of boost that would energize many of us, as activists.

    I hope; therefore, I can live.

    by tietack on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:18:36 PM PST

    •  all the Floridian (0+ / 0-)

      Log Cabin Republicans would go with him, swinging the State. The secret "Gay Agenda" the Repubs like to talk about. The Gay Repulican coming out bombs going off one at a time within the party, driving it farther to the right every time. I love it!

  •  Crist burned to many bridges on the stimulus, he (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    would have a hard time explaining why he denied being for the stimulus package.  

    Republican brand of HOPE: "I HOPE HE FAILS"... Country First Anyone?

    by DFutureIsNow on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:20:43 PM PST

  •  GLBTs tossed under the bus for the sake of a seat (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    if we welcome Crist into the fold.

    He's supported FL's gay adoption ban, he's supported their gay marriage ban (so good, they voted on it twice, first as law, next as an admendment!). All this because it represented his view of what a Florida voters expect of a state-wide representative. His party affiliation is very unlikely to change that.

    He will obstruct the repeal of DOMA, probably ENDA, the Uniting American Families Act and probably even the DADT repeal.

    Kendrick Meeks has a 100% approval from Human Rights Campaign and a proven record of support for the GLBT community.

    Marriage is one of the "basic civil rights of man" Loving v. Virginia

    by Scott Wooledge on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 01:26:14 PM PST

  •  Rubio, plz. (0+ / 0-)

    Seriously.  The guy is a birther whackjob, but we know what side of things he would fall on.  The last thing we need in the senate is ANOTHER Leiberman.  The fewer indy/conservadems the Dem Senate leadership has the 'opportunity' to cater to, the better.

  •  And if I'm Chuck Schumer, I call Crist today.... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    ..and say "Let's talk about your future."

  •  Bookmark this diary (0+ / 0-)

    Because I am almost positive that I have never seen a politician with a 10 point lead described as "toast".

    Like I said, bookmark this diary.  Markos maybe comes out looking like a genius.  Or maybe like an idiot.  

    If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

    by JakeC on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 02:44:35 PM PST

    •  Not the first time (0+ / 0-)

      I called Lieberman "toast" in the Democratic primary in 2006 after seeing a poll with Lieberman leading Lamont 50-35.

      This is an easy call for me. Of course, I made this call back in June when Crist had a massive lead in the polls.

      People are too quick to discount grassroots energy in a race. But when it's real, in a primary, it's hard for the non-grassroots candidate to win.

      •  Wow (0+ / 0-)

        Six years on this site, I've never had a recommended diary (or come close), only briefly had trusted user status, and (except for Armando) never even had so much as a response from even a regular old front pager to a diary or comment- until tonight, from the mighty and powerful Kos no less.

        And, I stand by my initial comment- if Crist loses, you look like a genius, particularly having been out in front in June.  Otherwise, you just went for it on your own 28 on 4th and two.

        If there is anything I have learned from Scooby Doo, it is that the only thing to fear is crooked real estate developers.

        by JakeC on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 05:31:57 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

  •  he could always come out of the closet (0+ / 0-)

    and then switch to the democratic party, saying he just couldn't live the lie anymore nor could he pander to the extreme right of the republican party any longer when in his heart he truly finds their rhetoric and hateful ideology repulsive.  that would make him a lock with the democratic base and a sure fire senator ... and if he then took those 6 years and acted like a moderately progressive democrat it would make him a sure fire Democratic President.

    No falsehood is so fatal as that which is made an article of faith. - Thomas Paine (-5.75, -4.65)

    by whoisjohngalt on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 02:52:38 PM PST

  •  Charlie had better get some advice from... (0+ / 0-)

    Arlen Specter and Dede Scozzafava... fast!

    Bush is now working as a motivational speaker. Who better to turn to than the guy who invaded the wrong country and started a depression -- David Letterman

    by Jimdotz on Thu Nov 19, 2009 at 02:55:27 PM PST

  •  I don't think the answer (0+ / 0-)
    is for Crist to become a Democrat.  We should not be trying to get conservatives to join the party...don't we see that it's the cause of our lack of getting things done? They fought us on the war, fighting us and weakening HCR.....I just don't see the big upside.  HOW are they Democrats?

    They vote w/Repubs and then ALL/only Dems get blamed....let them be Repubs and at least they'll be the one's who are RIGHTFULLY blamed.....and eventually people will start seeing which ideology is really hurting us and electing more progressives instead of conservatives.  The tent should be big, not bottomless, IMO.

  •  Bombshell indeed. (0+ / 0-)

    Tho not counterintuitive, seen from here in FL.
    I'm stocking up on popcorn and coffee...

  •  I agree Crist is toast (0+ / 0-)

    Rubio will beat him in the primary, so Crist has two choices, lose graciously or stop pandering to the right, embrace his moderate stances and announce he can no longer be a member of a party this right wing and he will switch to the democratic party but will be an independent voice.  
    He could also try the independent thing but he needs to drop out now and not after he loses. The gay thing, not an issue, everyone knows he is gay, no one cares.

  •  Crist as another Lieberman or a Specter? (0+ / 0-)

    Specter is playing by the rules and staying bought, supporting health care reform, not joining in any filibusters of Democratic legislation.

    Lieberman is filibustering with GOP and supporting GOP candidates.

    In return for Crist going Democratic, there would have to be a clear understanding he could never filibuster Democratic bills and that he would go to the mat for Democrats like Grayson and Obama in FL.

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