This evening, an historic agreement between 27 heads of government under the stewardship of the Swedish premier saw Belgian Prime Minister Herman Van Rompuy named the inaugural permanent President of the European Council.
As the new top job created by the finally-ratified Lisbon Treaty went to a centre-right man from a small country, it was always likely that the second job (High Representative for Foreign and Security Affairs) would go to a centre-left woman from a big country. On this basis, and thanks to a wonderful source last week, I tipped the UK's EU Commissioner Baroness Ashton in spite of her almost complete lack of diplomatic experience.
I am based in New York so can't bet online, but my editor and some other friends at PoliticalBetting.com managed to get money on her at 50/1 (they tipped Obama for POTUS in May 2005 at the same odds!) and are very happy this evening!
So what does this mean? Is this man now the "President of Europe"?
Quite simply "no", but the reasons why are a little complicated...come see
Van Rompuy isn't going to be a popular choice in the UK ("we've never heard of him!" is the normal response) and both the Daily Mail and the Guardian are running the headline "The Great EU Stitch-Up", but in reality, Van Rompuy was a fairly easy choice and probably the right man for the job.
The Low Countries had three of the frontrunning candidates, and when combined with additional opposition from Spain and Sweden, effectively thwarted Silvio Berlusconi and Gordon Brown's attempts to get Tony Blair the job. France and Germany were always going to be united on a candidate, and when Van Rompuy became the clear comprimise leader of the pack, Sarkozy and Merkel united behind him.
I was of the British school - I opposed Lisbon for its anti-democratic nature and so never wanted a 'European President' at all, but if there was to be one, I wanted a President who could hold his own against the Presidents of Russia, Brazil, the US, and the Chinese and Indian Premiers. I'm not sure Van Rompuy is that man, but he might yet surprise a lot of people. Mario Monti wasn't a fire-breathing action hero either, but he still bested Jack Welch and George W Bush without breaking a sweat.
If the EU is to actually be reformed, as pro-Lisbonites claim it will be, it will need someone who can actually manage the bureaucracy - who knows all the players and the backhannels and the pressure-points, and can be effective behind closed doors. Given Van Rompuy is of Brussels, I would hope he has a better chance than others. The Euroskeptic game is now over, and the struggle now becomes whether we become a properly Federal United States of Europe, or whether we keep blundering through as we have been doing.
So is Van Rompuy the 'President of Europe' or the 'President of the European Union'? Sadly, it's not that simple.
The structure of the EU does not lend itself to being easily understood - so here is a quick guide (and an explanation as to why this job isn't 'President of Europe'
The European Union is made up of 27 countries, led by 3 Presidents, 2 Chancellors, a Taoiseach, and 21 Prime Ministers: the 27 heads of national governments. This organisation is distinct from the European Economic Area, and the European Free Trade Area, and has a slightly different membership to the Eurozone, which only includes countries that have the Euro as their currency. There are other organisations that overlap, handily demonstrated by this diagram from Wikipedia:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/...
There is a European Parliament (which doesn't actually introduce legislation) which is the legislature of the EU and has a President, and 14 Vice Presidents and 5 Questors. Jerzy Buzek, former Polish PM, is currently President of the European Parliament.
Then there is the European Commission. This is like the Cabinet of the EU. There is a President of the European Commission, who has a number (currently 6) of Vice Presidents of the Commission. These are drawn from the 27 EU Commissioners, who are appointed by the 27 national governments to be the executive branch of the EU. The new High Representative for Foreign and Security Affairs will keep her job as an EU Commissioner from the UK. The current President of the European Commission is former Portuguese PM, Jose Manuel Barroso.
The European Council is the council of the 27 heads of national governments. The President of the European Council used to rotate between them every 6 months - currently it is the Swedish PM. However, the new post of 'permanent' President of the European Council is what has just been given to Belgian PM Herman Van Rompuy.
The other, similarly named institution is the Council of the European Union - this is sometimes called the Consilium, and makes most of the decisions below head-of-national-government level. It used to be called the Council of Ministers, and still comprises 27 Foreign Ministers (or 27 Finance Ministers or 27 Agriculture Ministers etc etc). It also used to work on a 6-month rotating presidency, but to get more done, they now have it Presided over by three countries for 18 months, rather than 6-months each. This Trio Presidency Model is formalised by the Lisbon Treaty. Current Presidents are France, Sweden & the Czech Republic, in the personages of Bernard Kouchner, Cecilia Malmstrom and Jan Kohout respectively.
Now if you weren't paying attention, the Council of the European Union, the European Parliament, the European Commission and the European Council are all part of the European Union. The Council of Europe, however, is not part of the European Union. However, the Council of Europe doesn't have a President, but rather a Secretary General as well as a Committee of Ministers (not to be confused with the Council of Ministers) and a Parliamentary Assembly (not to be confused with the European Parliament). The Secretary General of the Council of Europe should not be confused with the Secretary General of the European Free Trade Association. The most famous Council of Europe institution is the European Court of Human Rights, which should not be confused with the European Court of Justice, which is part of the European Union.
The European Court of Human Rights has a President (French judge Jean Paul Costa) who should not be confused with the President of the European Court of Justice (Vassillios Skouris) or his inferior the President of the European Court of First Instance, Marc Jaeger. All are distinct from the President of the European Free Trade Association Court, Carl Baudenbaucher. All are more powerful than the President of the European Court of Auditors, Hubert Weber, but probably not as important at the moment as the President of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet.
So as you can see, Herman Van Rompuy is by no means the only President in Europe - the job will no doubt develop, and hopefully will consolidate many of these powers and jobs into a single office. Then, it would be really nice if we could vote for the office holder, or any of these Presidents, but I suspect that might be a few years away...