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Today we have the last diary about C Pingree like first democrat from Maine. With that, we take a so good reference about this state. But we will continue finding more with "the second" and "the third" democrats from Maine.

P Mills seems the frontrunner in republican side for next year gubernatorial race, with the best results in polls, after lose in 2006 the republican nomination for governor.

Surely we will not see this race, but we need think about the differences between politics in this state specially unfavourable for dems in senate races last years. I think we need try see.

Until now seems the serie let us interesting and so logical results. This is a new step.

I remember and update from previous diaries the structure of this serie.

RANK OF BLUE STATES FROM HIGHER TO LOWER LEVEL OF ELECTED REPUBLICANS

  1. Maine: 2/2 Senate.
  1. Nevada: 1/2 Senate. Governor. 1/3 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Iowa: 1/2 Senate. 2/5 House. 2 Statewide officers.
  1. New Hampshire: 1/2 Senate.
  1. New Jersey: Governor (*). 5/13 House. Lieutenant Governor (*).
  1. Minnesota: Governor. 3/8 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. California: Governor. 19/53 House. Lieutenant Governor (*). 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Vermont: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Hawaii: Governor. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Connecticut: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. (Without include J Lieberman).
  1. Rhode Island: Governor.
  1. Delaware: 1/1 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Michigan: 7/15 House. 2 Statewide Officers. MI Senate majority.
  1. Wisconsin: 3/8 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Pennsylvania: 7/19 House. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer. PA Senate majority.
  1. Illinois: 7/19 House.
  1. Washington: 3/9 House. 2 Statewide Officers.
  1. Colorado: 2/7 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Oregon: 1/5 House.
  1. Maryland: 1/8 House.
  1. New York: 2/35 House.
  1. New Mexico: 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Massachusetts: No-one.

(*): Without take office still.

For national level: With a consolidated blue ticket we can look to republican side.

REPUBLICAN POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FROM BLUE STATES BY SERIOUSNESS.

  1. Timothy James Pawlenty: MN 1960 Governor of MN 03-11.
  1. George Elmer Pataki: NY 1945 Governor of NY 95-06.
  1. Willard Mitt Romney: MI MA 1947 Governor of MA 03-07. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 94.
  1. Rudolph William Louis Giuliani: NY 1944 Mayor of New York 94-01. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 00.
  1. Gary Earl Johnson: ND NM 1953 Governor of New Mexico 95-03.
  1. Richard John Santorum: VA PA 1958 Senator from PA 95-07. USHRep 91-95. Lost for Senate 06.

But we will see all they in their home state.

For state level:

DEMOCRATS IN THE CABINET OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

Still no-one.

DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

Maine 1st: Chellie M Pingree: MN ME 1955 USHRep 09- . Lost for Senate 02.
Nevada 1st:

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00.000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01.429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02.857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04.286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05.714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07.142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08.571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10.000 ---

C Pingree (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 25 votes = 03.267 => Leans Republican
C Pingree (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.529 => Leans Republican
C Pingree (D) vs J McKernan (R) after 09 votes = 06.481 => Leans Democratic
C Pingree (D) vs P Mills (R) after 14 votes = 07.500 => Likely Democratic

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

Maine 2nd:

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

Maine 2nd (D) vs O Snowe (R)
Maine 2nd (D) vs S Collins (R)
Maine 2nd (D) vs J McKernan (R)
Maine 2nd (D) vs P Mills (R)

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

Maine 3rd:

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

Maine 3rd (D) vs O Snowe (R)
Maine 3rd (D) vs S Collins (R)
Maine 3rd (D) vs J McKernan (R)
Maine 3rd (D) vs P Mills (R)

If you see this diary after days, you can see the last actualization of this serie in my last diary. For see my last diary click in "abgin's diary".

Originally posted to abgin on Fri Nov 20, 2009 at 04:16 PM PST.

Poll

C Pingree (D) vs P Mills (R)

50%9 votes
5%1 votes
5%1 votes
5%1 votes
5%1 votes
11%2 votes
16%3 votes

| 18 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  You must not be from Maine (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Eddie in ME, Debbie in ME

    No one in Maine would think of Peter Mills as the "front-runner" for any Republican primary, and certainly not for Governor.  He may have more name recognition because of his unsuccessful primary run in 2006 (finished second) but he certainly is not the front runner in terms of support from a fractured Maine Republican party -- and he will very likely finish way back in the fundraising -- since independently wealthy Les Otten has already indicated he is willing to "self finance" to the same extent Independent Angus King did when he won the Blaine House.

    So what is the point of  this exercise, because it certainly does not feature any information relevant to any potential political match-ups?  This is the political equivalent to a "fantasy baseball league." An interesting by-play of statistics that tells us nothing whatever about politics in Maine -- which is always, always about the personalities in the match-up, not their past performance.

    •  Well (0+ / 0-)

      I try give to all relative differences between the pronostic for each hypothetic contest. We are looking who are the more supported democrats and who are their dangers.

      This is not for a specific contest, this is not for a specific electoral round, this is not for one state only. We are checking free all blue states at same time (starting by Maine).

      I think for example is very interesting see C Pingree like first democrat in Maine. This can be an interesting result of this serie.

      And i think we will have more interesting results, not only for Maine. In few time you will see too results for more states in the same rank.

      Maybe Les Otten become the republican frontrunner. You think todays poll would change very much with Les Otten? I think the diference would be minimum.

    •  Agree, that Mills will not be (0+ / 0-)

      the best funded candidate, but in fractured primary everything is possible. In addition, he is, probably, the most moderate candidate of all Republicans, so he has his niche. I would easily vote for him over Baldacci in 2006 if Mills would be the Republican nominee, and if Republicans would be smart to run him then - Baldacci wouldn't be a Governor today

  •  And the point is .... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Eddie in ME

    Basing political judgment on facts is always important. A little knowledge about facts on the ground is way more important than any theoretical constructs.  How did you come up with your assumptions.  What did you use for polling data?  What were the plot points?  No recent poll (public or private) about Maine's races has not included Les Otten.  Further, no poll has included Jock McKiernan om at least a decade.  He hasn't lived in the state for years, he seldom makes appearances, he doesn't campaign for Republicans although he does go to dinners with his wife -- Oly. Mt question remains, what is the point?  How will this exercise illuminate us?

    •  We have so recent polls (0+ / 0-)

      There are not assumptions.

      The last poll what i know for this race what include P Mills and L Otten is this:

      Public Policy Polling: October 22, 2009

      In this poll we have:

      E Mitchell (D) 31% P Mills (R) 34%
      E Mitchell (D) 34% L Otten (R) 26%
      GS Rowe (D) 25% P Mills (R) 33%
      GS Rowe (D) 28% L Otten (R) 26 %

      That make i must choose P Mills for todays poll and we can assume he should be over all other republicans running for governor.

      About J McKernan, i think is good have a reference with him in a moment where very much prominent republicans are mulling a return to the politics.
      I think have too J McKernan give value to the serie. We can see for example, like J McKernan is over all current runners for governor in republican side, but the people think can be defeated. With more hypothetic contest in the race we will have better reference.

  •  ...say what? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Debbie in ME

    I don't understand the point of this diary at all.

    You're ranking a bunch of candidates who will never run against each other. You have Peter Mills, a great guy who will never survive a Republican primary precisely because I think he's a great guy, as the frontrunner.

    And you don't have a single Democrat who's actually running even included. So what the heck is the point, exactly?

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