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Wow, a guy leaves town for a couple of days to beat the Thanksgiving travel crunch, and a bunch of pollsters figure that would be a dandy time to test the 2010 landscape. Sheesh!

In other words, there is quite a bit in the campaign inbox to clear.

MA-Sen: Pair of Polls Give Coakley An Edge, Capuano Clear Second
Two polls released over the course of the past few days confirm two trends a few weeks in advance of the Democratic primary to replace the late Senator Ted Kennedy. One trend has been there since the inception of the race: state Attorney General Martha Coakley is the clear frontrunner. The second trend is a new one--Congressman Michael Capuano is now the undisputed leading challenger to Coakley. The Boston Globe poll over the weekend had Coakley sitting at 43%, with Capuano at 22%. Trailing the leaders were businessmen Steve Pagliuca (at 15%) and Alan Khazei (at 6%). This poll was quickly followed by a Rasmussen poll which had the race somewhat closer: with Coakley at 36% and Capuano at 21%. They had Khazei even with Pagliuca, though both trailed Capuano clearly at just 14% of the vote. The primary is on December 8th.

MA-Gov: Patrick Still Leads, Even According to Rasmussen
Though they claim a narrowing margin, even the GOP-friendly pollsters at Rasmussen have incumbent Democratic Governor Deval Patrick staked to a lead as the 2010 election cycle rolls onward. The survey gives Patrick modest leads against either Republican challenger. Against 2006 Independent candidate Christy Mihos, the GOP candidate runs 3rd (26%), behind both Patrick (32%) and Democrat-cum-Independent state Treasurer Tim Cahill (28%). Against businessman Charlie Baker, the Republican runs second, but the Democrat's lead increases incrementally (33-28, with 26% for Cahill). Patrick registers low job approval (34%) in the poll, according to Rasmussen.

AZ-Gov: Dem Goddard Leads GOP Incumbent, According to 2 Polls
A pair of polls released in the Grand Canyon State confirm that Democrats have a solid chance of claiming a governor's race in Arizona, where incumbent Republican Governor Jan Brewer trails the likely Democratic nominee: state Attorney General Terry Goddard. In the new survey done by Arizona State University, the Democrat holds a nineteen-point edge (47-28) over Brewer. Rasmussen, perhaps not surprisingly, has it considerably closer: saying that Goddard leads Brewer by a narrower nine-point margin (44-35). Rasmussen also claims that Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, should he run as a Republican, would lead Goddard by double-digits.

WI-Sen: Feingold With Solid Leads Over GOP Contenders, Says PPP
An oasis of good polling news can be found in Wisconsin, where the team over at PPP reports that even if GOP dream candidate Tommy Thompson leaps into the race, three-term Democratic Senator Russ Feingold is a solid bet for re-election. Feingold has a nine-point edge on Thompson (50-41) according to the poll, while Feingold has even larger leads over more likely GOP challengers Terrence Wall (48-34) and Dave Westlake (47-32). PPP also teased that they will be releasing results on the competitive and open gubernatorial race on Friday.

NV-Gov: New Poll Says Sandoval Leads In A Possible 3-Way Matchup
This should not register as a surprise, but if Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman (a registered Democrat) elects to make an Independent bid for Governor of Nevada, it will make it much easier for Republican Brian Sandoval to be elected governor. Such is the lesson of a new poll conducted for the Nevada News Bureau, which gives Sandoval 35% of the vote, with Goodman trailing with 28% and Reid further back at 21% of the vote. Goodman has not finalized any 2010 plans, although the general speculation out of the state has been that if he runs for Governor, it will be as an Independent rather than as a Democrat. The polling outfit involved made one pretty surprising omission: they did not test a matchup between Goodman, Reid, and the current incumbent GOP Governor, Jim Gibbons.

ND-Sen: Zogby Poll For Right-Wing Client Claims GOP Pickup Possible
According to a poll conducted by Zogby on behalf of their conservative clients (the League of American Voters, described last week by Pollster as a right-of-center group opposed to Health Care Reform), Democratic Senator Byron Dorgan could be vulnerable to a challenge from the state's three-term Republican Governor, John Hoeven. The poll claims that Hoeven leads Dorgan by nineteen points (55-36). It also points out, though, that if Hoeven does not run, Dorgan should cruise--he leads Naval veteran Duane Sand (who has run statewide several times) by thirty-two points (60-28).

FL-12: Could the Dems Pick Up A GOP Open Seat? New Poll Says Yes
It is an internal poll (so, as always, apply as much salt as you deem necessary), but there are new numbers out of Central Florida's 12th Congressional District which imply that Democrats could have a fighting chance to pick up the seat held for most of the last decade by GOP Congressman Adam Putnam.
The poll, conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, claims a lead of four points for Democrat Lori Edwards in her challenge against Republican state legislator Dennis Ross. Putnam is leaving Congress at the age of 35 in order to pursue a race to be Florida's next state Agriculture Commissioner.

IN POLITICAL NEWS....

  • Virginia 2009: A new study of the 2009 election in Virginia shows that voter turnout, when measured as a percentage of eligible voters, ticked up a bit higher in 2009 than it was in 2005 (among registered voters, this year's turnout was below 2005). This indicates that a Democratic dip in turnout was also accompanied by some level of a GOP voter surge, which might do well to explain the dramatically different electorate in the state in 2009 versus...say...2008.
  • 2010: The Governors: In the battle to create a dominant theme for the 2010 Elections, Nathan Daschle of the Democratic Governors' Association is calling his shot early. Daschle is eyeing the 2010 group of GOP contenders/pretenders (which include names like Gingrich-era Congressmen Bill McCollum, Scott McInnis, Rick Lazio and Sam Brownback) and says that they represent "a throwback rather than a comeback." In a piece for the Huffington Post, Daschle writes:

    The so-called "GOP Comeback" is not just a return to the failed ideas of the past, it's a return to the failed leaders of the past. The roster of candidates starring in the Comeback include lackluster has-beens."

    He also points to the GOP civil war as reaching into the gubernatorial campaigns, citing Colorado (where, alas, there was a rumor this week that Tom Tancredo might be backing off of his plans to run for Governor) and Iowa.

  • CT-Sen/CT-Gov/CT-05: Connecticut GOP chair Chris Healy has been a busy boy this week. The field has magically cleared down to two candidates in the once-crowded primary to battle Democratic incumbent Chris Dodd for his US Senate seat. As was widely predicted (and reported) last week, state legislator Sam Caliguiri moved out of the Senate race and into a challenge of sophomore Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy (a former Simmons staffer, Justin Bernier, was already in the field, and is pretty ticked off by Healy's interference in the race). Then, on Tuesday, it was confirmed that former ambassador Tom Foley was also looking at parachuting out of the Senate race, in favor of a gubernatorial campaign.
  • Houston Mayoral: Over the weekend, one of the more interesting races left in the 2009 cycle got a potential game-changer as openly gay Houston city controller Annise Parker beat out former city attorney Gene Locke for the endorsement by the city's largest paper, the Houston Chronicle. The runoff in the race will be on December 12th. Parker lead Locke by five points in the first round of balloting earlier in the month.
  • NY-23: Now that he has finally conceded the 2009 election for the third time (or, at least, we're pretty sure he has), it looks like we will have Doug Hoffman back for a return engagement in 2010, after all. Though Hoffman did not confirm it directly, he seems likely to run the next time around as a Republican, having already been the de facto GOP nominee in 2009.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 07:02 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  So the pollsters did a Wednesday night news dump? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pine, blueyedace2

    " It's shocking what Republicans will do to avoid being the 2012 presidential nominee."

    by jwinIL14 on Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 07:07:20 PM PST

  •  There's a lesson in Feingold's success (7+ / 0-)

    Exhibit principals and guts and very liberal Senators can maintain high popularity.

    There is no planet B

    by Minerva on Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 07:09:32 PM PST

  •  The conceding, unconceding, and (9+ / 0-)

    reconceding of Doug Hoffman has made him look like something of a clown, which will make him a hero to Republicans.

    The weak in courage is strong in cunning-William Blake

    by beltane on Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 07:10:32 PM PST

  •  Why would Oscar Goodman run as an independent? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pine, blueyedace2

    Just to avoid a primary against Rory Reid?

  •  Hoffman is making himself his own worst enemy. (7+ / 0-)

    Owens could just be the garden variety but all the DCCC needs to do is show an unstable, waffling guy who quite frankly is not at all photogenic.  Owens looks like 'one of the guys'.  

    "Words are my weapon. Violence I am not good at."- John Lydon

    by Cait Strummer on Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 07:15:59 PM PST

  •  Alan Khazei is a good man and a very strong grass (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mem from somerville, blueyedace2

    roots progressive, the founder of City Year and a advocate for the poor! It's unfortunate in a 6 week primary its impossible for him to get enough name recognition.

    Teagagging: The act of choking on one's own stupidity!

    by HGM MA on Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 07:16:55 PM PST

  •  So I ask again.... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pine, Steve Singiser

    Has Beau Biden declared yet?

    "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

    by xsonogall on Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 07:26:11 PM PST

    •  No, But The General Consensus.... (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Miss Blue, xsonogall, annieli

      Is starting to coalesce around the idea that he IS running. Senator Carper, who has been friends with Mike Castle for years, said somewhere today that in spite of that, he'd be voting for Beau Biden.

      Gotta believe that if Beau Biden was not running, someone would have told Carper that.

      "You share your young with the wolves of the nation...
      Theres nothing left til you pray for salvation"
      Black Rebel Motorcycle Club "American X"

      by Steve Singiser on Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 10:06:30 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  i'll be voting for anise parker but goddam there (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pine, Miss Blue, Steve Singiser, Clarknt67

    is a group of 'nuts harrassing her with teh anti-gay crap:

    Longtime anti-gay activist Dave Wilson, who once led a successful effort to amend the city charter to deny benefits to the partners of gay and lesbian city employees, said he has sent out 35,000 fliers opposing the mayoral candidacy of Annise Parker in part because of her sexual orientation.

    The front of the flier has a 2004 photo of Parker being sworn into office as city controller while her partner, Kathy Hubbard, looks on, accompanied by the headline: "Is this the image Houston wants to portray?" On the back is written, "Just because Annise Parker is a lesbian doesn't make her qualified to be mayor of Houston."

    yes, houston needs to portray that image and yes she is qualified, in part, because she is a lesbian!

    "Wilderness is not a luxury but a necessity of the human spirit." Edward Abbey

    by timbuck on Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 07:26:55 PM PST

  •  Pretty confusing but... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    qwertyuiop, LarryKrebbs

    it seems clear that conservatives will vote while liberals stay home in 2010.

  •  Incumbent Deval Patrick at 32% - YIKES! (5+ / 0-)

    Unless he can turn that around, that is a "dead man walking".

    Deval has really lost a lot of the goodwill that swept him into office with a few rather embarrassing episodes of obvious cronyism, the inheritance of a crappy economy in the wake of Mitt and W, etc.

    But imo, he is also suffering because he has not demonstrated virtually any strong, inspiring leadership from the corner office of the State House. Instead his pronouncements come out as milquetoast attempts at "riding down the middle" of issues or else vacillations on his positions - such as the whole casinos question here in the Commonwealth.

    Memo to Republicans - "Nope" is not a strategy...

    by frisco on Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 07:29:15 PM PST

  •  FL-CD 12 (4+ / 0-)

    the aforementioned Ms. Edwards is endorsed by the Blue Dogs ... yes, she's also been endorsed by  the leaving-Wexler, et al of Florida reps too but don't forget, she is a Blue Dog through and through.  to quote Ms Edwards "I am a conserv and moderate Democrat."

    I'm tired of my party picking my candidates.  Aren't you?

    Do we need another Allen Boyd sitting in Adam Putnam's old seat?  I think not.

    Although this is not my district, the first candidate I've given and raised funds for is Doug Tudor - a real progressive to represent the people of District 12.  

    Want to know where Doug stands on issues?   Check the page out and then contact him to ask him for more details or other issues important to you.  

    At a recent (last month) fundraiser, when a potential contributor asked Lori her stand on any issue, Lori's response was "I'll have to get back to you after I've studied those issues".  WTF?  Is she running for Congress or is she studying for a test?  Where the hell does she stand?

    Doug Tudor ran against the well-financed and 3rd in GOP ranking in 2008 - with NO help from the party, DCCC or any of the "strong and proud" Florida Democrats - and still with just grassroots support, he took 42.5% of the votes.

    Again, I'll state my support for Doug Tudor, FL CD-12  (a video from 2008 and he had my support then, too)

    •  Are his positions in line with the (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bobnbob

      voters of district? As much as people hate Boyd his views are probably in line with the constituents in FL-2. Is Tudor unelectable?

      •  Are you saying (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bobnbob, ElMatadorFL

        Are you saying that we should allow the party to pick a conservative who will vote against our progressive agenda?  Your argument was used to sway Orlando area voters regarding Alan Grayson - and thank god the progressives got him through the primary!

        Choke on that

        •  FL-8 is a much more "progressive" district (0+ / 0-)

          than either FL-2 or FL-12? Obama got 52% of the vote in FL-8. McCain got 51% in FL-12 and it has a PVI or R+6. That doesn't make FL-12 receptive to an "activist" Democrat.

          •  You got 'em numbers? (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            bobnbob, ElMatadorFL

            So, what's the PVI for FL-8?  After all, FL-12 has more union members than any other district in the state.  But, hey, let's not put in a good fight for the ideals and values we know to be true... right?

            No, let's put a devil in the office with a small "d" behind their name - just so we can have another "d" in the column?  Wow - thought progressives were better than that.

            •  I didn't know that FL-12 had more union members (0+ / 0-)

              That might change the dynamics. FL-8's PVI is R +2

              •  Exactly (3+ / 0-)

                The unknown of FL 12 is that it has more union members than any other district in the state.  And, I am not saying it is going to be an easy battle, but Edwards ONLY bill she sponsored in the state legislature was to exempt businesses in Florida from paying royalties to musician unions.

                Bottom line, Edwards is bad.  She has ties to Wellcare - one of the members on their board of directors is fundraising for her.  Wellcare, dammit! They have been raided by the FBI, kicked out of the medicaid business in two different states and give 95% of their corporate contributions to repiggies.  What's the hot button issue right now?  Healthcare.  And Edwards is supported by one of the most corrupt resellers of medicare and medicaid.

                My only point is this: the state party is so desperate to add a win to their column  that they will sell their values and principles for it.  And Edwards is the perfect person to help them do that.  

                Look at her website - she refuses to go on the record on ANY issue.  She leaves meetings early to avoid talking to activists or progressives of any type.  Bottom line: she is a republican and will vote like one.

      •  42.5% of the vote (2+ / 0-)

        WITHOUT any support from the FL Democratic party, the DCCC, et al including our already elected "strong" Democrats.

        Doug is very electable --- and we (the grassroots) did that in just 6 months.

    •  DownWithTyranny (2+ / 0-)

      says it so much better than I here

  •  Steve, (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pine, blueyedace2

    Can you tell me when Congress is back in session after the Thanksgiving break? I'm sending out NFTT donation requests to all the senators and congressional reps and would like them not to get lost in the extra piles of paper.

        Thanks very much,
           For Dan,
           Heather

    Planning a March for Accountability

    by Chacounne on Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 07:43:37 PM PST

  •  Schiff is still in it for Senate in CT (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pine

    In the GOP Senate race, there are three contenders: Rob Simmons, Linda McMahon, and Peter Schiff. Schiff has moneybombs coming up which could pump up his money some again, and more importantly has begun campaigning in CT. Before he had been only climbing in the polls like molasses, going from 0% to 1% to 2% to 5% since he has been polled in the GOP primary. He had previously been fulfilling previous speaking commitments he had made at economic conferences and whatnot. Should be interesting- none of the candidates really have a reputation for being mainstream republicans.

    Opinions alter, manners change, creeds rise and fall, but the moral laws are written on the table of eternity. -Lord Acton

    by Imperial on Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 07:43:55 PM PST

  •  About that Dorgan poll (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pine

    As a ND resident I just don't see how that true when polls from a few months ago show Dorgan with a fairly decent lead over dorgan.

    Dorgan hasn't really stuck his nose out during the health care debate like Conrad did and Dorgan really comes off here as a fighter for the people.

    The problem I have with this poll is that it more than likely polled people living in small towns and if everyone know is that Dorgan pulls in votes from our larger cities.

    I think the reason why Hooeven looks good is because during all of his years as Gov he has never had to really take a stand on any of the big issues.

    Honestly the Gov in our state is basically a figure head he doesn't have a lot of power like in many other states.

    Hell Hooeven could probably go to South America and have an affair and no one may even notice he's gone.

    Also he hasn't had a real Challenger for his seat ever.

    Our state party is weak so we just tend send in lambs to sacrifice. Hell last year I barely saw any lawn signs for the dem candidate and next to no ads.

    Also Hooeve doesn't even have senate campaign committee yet so he cannot raise money yet for it and from what I heard on the local NPR is that at last check he only had like 71k in his gov campaign fund.

    •  When is ND's filing (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pine

      deadline?

      •  dont know (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        pine

        but time is a wasting because Dorgan at the time they reported Hooevens campaign chest had like 1.2 million.

        Another reason why I cannot see Hooeven winning is because to be honest our state is one giant welfare queen.

        We live off of farm subsidy and other works project from the feds and our delegation if fucking good at bringing home the pork for the state.

        So I'm going to find it hard for the people behind the scenes get behind Hooeven because Dorgan has real money making powers so I'm not sure how they kick out Dorgan for a freshmen republican in the minority party.

        Also I might find it hard for the wingnuts to back Hooeven because like not a very long time before he ran for his first term Hooeven signed a letter to our Dem party stating that he was a Dem.

        But he turned coat in order to lock in his chance to be gov.

    •  Why would he need money now? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      pine, blueyedace2

      Very cheap media market, he's already got name recognition, and any negative ads would be purchased by nominally independent operations. All Hoeven would really need to spend on is gas, hotels, and yard signs.



      McChrystal Meth makes you ugly.

      by ben masel on Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 08:13:03 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL 12 (2+ / 0-)

    Edwards is just as bad as Putnam - if not worse as she is a gun loving, union-busting, big corporatists.  She has ties to WellCare (www.wellcare.com), which has been raided by the FBI, through one of the members on its board of directors. Want to ensure your progressive agenda is DOA, support Edwards.

    Conversely, we have a progressive alternative: Doug Tudor.  Tudor had the guts to stand up and run against Putnam in 2008.  Tudor will remain true to democratic values and ideals.  I encourage everyone to visit his website.  http://teamtudor.org

  •  Gibbons in NV is DOA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pine

    He has one of the lowest, if not THE lowest approval ratings in the country. It was 10% at one point, I think it's climbed back up to 25% or so.

    He'll get primaried no matter who the republican is.

    Insert witty slogan here.

    by SniperCT on Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 08:09:24 PM PST

  •  AZ poll numbers are interesting (0+ / 0-)

    Goddard is highly competent, but I think he polls well more because he's "not Jan Brewer" than any public love for Goddard himself. I don't see Brewer surviving the GOP primary if any a-tier challengers get into the race (and at the rate things are going, it's conceivable that she could lose the race to a political nobody).

    Joe Arpaio says he isn't running, which is a good thing. Besides being a racist totalitarian jerk, he's got a list of scandals 10 miles long. Even if he were to run and win, it would be bad news for the state GOP in the long run (think Evan Mecham and Fife Symington all over again).

  •  Nothing on Sizemore for OR-Gov? (0+ / 0-)

    I'd love to see some numbers on the GOP primary in the OR-Gov race. Actually, it's not the numbers now that should be interesting, but the numbers after a few months of teabaggery in the Crist/Rubio tradition :-D

    “If I can't dance to it, it's not my revolution.” — Emma Goldman

    by Jyrinx on Wed Nov 25, 2009 at 11:32:27 PM PST

  •  CA (0+ / 0-)

    http://www.latimes.com/...

    EXCERPT

    Meg Whitman's Radio Whoppers

    In the very first series of radio ads in the 2010 gubernatorial race, comes blatant baloney from billionaire political novice Meg Whitman, the former chief executive of EBay who is running for the Republican nomination.

    "Did you know," Whitman asks radio listeners, "that in the last 10 years, state spending has gone up 80%?"

    Well, no, I did not know that. So I did some checking.

    "They're completely wrong when they say that," replied state Finance Director Mike Genest, a conservative former budget consultant for Senate Republicans.

    It doesn't take much digging to learn that general fund spending "in the last 10 years" has risen just 27%, according to finance department data. Adjusted for inflation and population growth, spending actually has decreased by 16.6%.

    Another bit of baloney in the Whitman ad that is running all over the state. "These days," the candidate intones, "Sacramento does the same old thing over and over. Their only solution is to raise taxes and spend more money."

    I've already showed that they're spending less money, not more.

    In fact, over the current and last fiscal years, projected spending -- the amount that would have been paid out without changes in laws -- has been whacked by $31 billion. So their "only solution" is not to tax and spend.

    The radio ad fibs may seem like a small thing, but it's in the public's interest to keep the campaign dialogue as honest as possible.

    It feels like all the people that want limited government really just want government limited to Republicans. - Jon Stewart

    by anyname on Thu Nov 26, 2009 at 06:34:33 AM PST

  •  The poll for FL-12 was worthless (0+ / 0-)

    From Ronpaulforums and a Ross supporter:

    I got a call from that poll, and it was a classic push poll.  About 5 minutes of blasting Ross and then telling me how Edwards was a conservative and would not help Obama.  Pathetic.

    To make it even more of a joke, Edwards is also trying to say that 88% of the district knows them both enough to pick who they would vote for on the first question.  No poll with two people who have never run in Hillsborough County, let alone are totally known in Polk County, would ever get 90% name ID.  

    I did some checking and their fundraising reports pretty much say it all.  Ross has a ton of local donors and Edwards has almost none.  

    Opinions alter, manners change, creeds rise and fall, but the moral laws are written on the table of eternity. -Lord Acton

    by Imperial on Fri Nov 27, 2009 at 11:49:18 PM PST

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