The Blogistan Polytchnic Insitute has honored this humble diarist by asking (permitting) him to provide a guest lecture from the warm waters of the Arabian or Persian (depending whether you are looking from the East or the West) Gulf.
In line with standard BPI policy, Magis vinum, magis verum ("More wine, more truth"), I stopped at my local oasis on my way home tonight to fortify myself for this imposing challenge. Herein lies a clue to some of the issues we will discuss.
Most of the content of this diary is based on my own experience of living and working (for local companies) for around 4 years in the region, and the numbers facts and statisitics are derived from the CIA world fact book, wikipedia and the BBC.
The subject is so large, that the only objective is that a few people may realise, Like Socrates that "the only thing I know for sure, is that I know nothing"
Size does matter.
Much of what most people know about the Middle East they have learnt from television news, CNN, MSNBC, Pox News etc. Consider this image, parts of which which you may see often on your tv screen.
Source CIA factbook.
If you are watching a news report on Israel, you will be shown the section in the small sqaure on the left, whereas if the report is on the Gulf, you would be shown the larger square on the right. But what is missing is a scale. Many people therefore have no idea of the distances involved within the region.
Why is this important? Because the capital of Syria is around 80 miles from Haifa in Israel, or about 130 miles from Tel Aviv. So when people talk of Israel nuking Syria, it ain't gonna happen. It would be like New York nuking Philadelphia.
Similarly for the Gulf. The Gulf is about 600 miles long, but even so it represents just a small part of the region. The two biggest countries are Saudi Arabia and Iran, each of which is bigger that the three largest states in the US, Texas, California and Montana, combined. Dubai, the oft quoted cause of world economic doom is the size of Rhode Island.
Population
The overall population of the region, depending on how you define it is around 250 million. The largest country by area, Saudi Arabia has a population of 28 million, around 12% of the region, and this is because most of the country is just desert, with Summer temperatures up around 110 degrees F. Saudi, or KSA as it is often called has a disproportionate impact on world politics because it is the largest producer/exporter of oil in the world, and accounts for around 12% of world production and even more of the reserves. This 12% - about 10million barrels per day is roughly the same number as the US imports from all countries, and roughly the same number the US burns as automobile gasoline each day!!!! This gives a lot of influence.
Similarly, the regime in KSA is probably the most restrictive in the region. IN KSA it is forbidden
- for women to go out in public unless dressed in Abaya and Hijab
- for women to drive
- to build any religious building except mosques
- to buy/sell/consume alcohol
- to eat/drink smoke in public during Ramadan
- for a women to be alone in the company of an unrelated male (except employees)
But these rules are specific to KSA, and not the other 220 million inhabitants of the region. As an example, here is my local pub in Bahrain
Kuwait has the same restrictions officially with respect to Alcohol and Ramadan, but what goes on behind closed doors is something else.
Many of the ideas about customs and laws in the Middle East are based on Saudi practices, and shouldn't be generalised for all the countries.
Slave Labour and Impats
Another commonly held view is that the region is supported by enslaved workers from the Indian subcontinent and the Phillipines, and there has been a couple of diaries recently about Dubai on this issue. Whereas it is certainly true that there are abusive employers, particulalrly in the construction and domestic service areas, the economy of the gulf states depends on a regular and reliable supply of immigrant labour and management. In order to function, these employers need to pay a decent wage to attract and retain their workers.
In industrial concerns in the Gulf States, Indian workers will generally earn between $400 and $1000 per month, with basic accomodation provided, 3or 4 weeks annual vacation (including an air ticket home once a year), an end of contract indemnity of one month's salary per year of service, basic free health care, and this is all tax free. Compare this to the illegal immigrants on Mr Majestyks melon farm in the Salinas valley. It is not unusual for companies to have immigrant labour with 25 plus years of service.
Similarly, in the Gulf countries, most of the lower and middle management tends to be from India, and salaries range from $25,000 to $60,000 (say a chief accountant) per year, car and housing on top, Tax free. In the other countries of the region, Iran, Syria, Jordan, Egypt etc there is sufficient local population, so fewer or no impats, but salaries in Jordan and Syria are lower than in the Gulf.
The spoils of Oil
Finally consider 2 countries.
Country A has a population of 4.6 million, per capita GDP of $59,500, produces 2.5mm bbl of oil and 99 bn M3 of gas per day.
Country B has a population of 4.8 million, per capita GDP of $44,600, and produces 3.04 mm bbls of oil per day.
Both countries invest their oil revenues in Soveriegn Wealth Funds.
When you think of Country A you probably think of this.
source wikipedia
and when you think of country B, you might think of this.
Country A is Norway, and Country B is the United Arab Emirates.
The biggest difference between the two (apart from climate) is that the income distributiion in Norway is much more egalitarian than the UAE, but I would guess that the US distribution is closer to the UAE than it is to Norway. Instead of Sheiks, think Goldmann Sachs bankers.
And finally, a couple of factoids for those interested.
Dubai Airport was opened in 1960, with a sand airstrip. It now handles 37 million passengers per year, compared to JFK which handles 48 million passengers. If Dubai airport contributes the same GDP per passenger as JFK, it generates $22 bn of GDP to Dubai.
Of the top ten oil producers in the world, only 4 are from the middle East. CIA Fact Book
Damascus, the famous biblical city on the road to which St Paul had his conversion, claims to be the oldest continuously inhabited city in the world with 7000 years existence - eat that Sarah Palin!
And a last pictue of how we can co-exist.
Good neighbours in Manama