Skip to main content

Rasmussen goes on a polling binge (and, surprisingly, they even have a Democrat in the lead one time), a potentially dangerous special election pops up in paradise, and there's at least one race where Republicans are having a devil of a time recruiting. It's not a busy night for the Wrap, but there are some jewels to mine here....

IL-Sen: Rasmussen Has A Democrat Leading (No...Really!)
Rasmussen has been on a Senate polling tear as of late, with a bevy of polls this week forecasting Senatorial doom for the Democrats. In today's poll out of the Land of Lincoln, however, Rasmussen actually puts a Democrat in the lead. The Democrat in question is Alexi Giannoulias, who holds a three-point edge (42-39) over Republican Congressman Mark Kirk. Kirk, however, has narrow leads over the other two leading Democrats in the field: Cheryle Jackson (42-39) and David Hoffman (42-39). Interestingly, Rasmussen did not poll primaries, even though the Illinois primary is now just over seven weeks away.

CO-Sen: Rasmussen Returns To Form In Square State Poll
Those who think Rasmussen might be getting soft by putting a Democrat in the lead in Illinois can rest easy: in the state of Colorado, the Democratic incumbent trails the GOP challenger by a solid margin. Michael Bennet is down nine points to Republican Jane Norton (46-37), and also trails unknown Republicans Ken Buck and Tom Wiens, according to the Ras. Andrew Romanoff is also polled, and also trails the three Republicans by similar margins.

NV-Sen: Reid Trails As Well, According to Rasmussen
The bad news for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid: in the latest poll from Rasmussen, he still trails all three leading Republicans. The good news? At least this poll has him within striking distance. Reid trails both GOP leading contenders, Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian, by six points (49-43). While nothing to write home about, it is better than most polls, which have shown him trailing by close to double digits.

IN OTHER NEWS...

  • HI-01/HI-Gov: In what could prove to be a thorny situation for the DCCC, longtime Democratic Congressman Neal Abercrombie announced his resignation from the House today. Unlike some recent retirements, this was not a case of a candidate staring down the barrel of tough electoral circumstances. Abercrombie was already retiring at the end of this term, after making the decision to run for Governor of Hawaii in 2010. His resignation was almost certainly prompted by his need to be in-state to campaign, rather than making the eleven-hour one way flight between Honolulu and Washington DC.

    The complicating factor for Democrats is that, unless the laws on special elections have changed since 2003, special Congressional elections are conducted in an all-party election. Where this could bite the Democrats is in the fact that there are two legitimate Democratic candidates (Colleen Hanabusa and Ed Case) in the field, but only one legitimate Republican (Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou). Therefore, Djou could conceivably win the election with less than 40% of the vote, because the Democratic vote is split two ways.

  • RI-Gov: Well, at least in one state the TradMed will not be able to write "GOP Smells Blood In The Water" stories. Rhode Island Republicans lost their only active candidate for Governor today, when businessman Rory Smith dropped his bid for Governor, laudably citing his own inexperience as a reason to forgo a bid. Republicans do have a quasi-candidate in the field, as former Republican U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee (who is certainly well to the left of national Republicans) is in the race as an Independent.
  • AR-Sen: Obviously, Republicans do smell blood in the water with Arkansas Senator Blanche Lincoln. The eighth Republican to enter the race jumped in today, in the person of former Arkansas Farm Bureau President Stanley Reed. Reed joins seven other Republicans in a bid to defeat Lincoln, whose antics on health care reform might also cause her headaches with the Democratic base in the state.
  • GA-12: Conservative Democratic incumbent John Barrow is going to get primaried from the left for the second cycle in a row. Regina Thomas, a state senator, announced her second bid for Congress today. Barrow annihilated Thomas in their 2008 meeting, but there is substantially more political anger out there now than there was two years ago, and Thomas might be able to tap that in her bid.
  • ID-01: One other conservative Dem is not getting primaried, at least not yet. CQ reports that Larry Grant, who impressed many with his competitive challenge of then-incumbent Republican Bill Sali in 2006, will not file a primary challenge to Democratic freshman Walt Minnick. Minnick has been in the top five most conservative Democrats in the House in this session.
  • ID-Gov: Hard to believe that we have two Idaho political stories in the Friday Wrap, but here we are: Democrats have recruited a challenger for incumbent Republican Governor Butch Otter. His name is Keith Allred, and he is a former Harvard professor who now works a an economic consultant.
  • FL-St Sen: Rarely does recruiting news in state legislative elections land on the Wrap's radar, but this one might be worth it. There are whispers that the Democrats are trying to recruit former Tampa Bay Bucs linebacker extraordinaire Derrick Brooks to run in the state's 12th Senate district. Former NFL baller Jay Reimersma is already in the 2010 political picture, running for Congress in Michigan's 2nd Congressional District.

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Fri Dec 11, 2009 at 07:36 PM PST.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site