Research 2000 for Daily Kos. 12/14/2009-12/17/2009. All adults. MoE 2% (Last weeks results in parentheses):
|PRESIDENT OBAMA||54 (53)||42 (42)||+1|
|PELOSI:||41 (40)||49 (50)||+2|
|REID:||30 (29)||60 (60)||+1|
|McCONNELL:||18 (17)||64 (65)||+2|
|BOEHNER:||16 (15)||64 (65)||+2|
|CONGRESSIONAL DEMS:||38 (39)||56 (55)||-2|
|CONGRESSIONAL GOPS:||16 (16)||69 (68)||-1|
|DEMOCRATIC PARTY:||40 (41)||54 (54)||-1|
|REPUBLICAN PARTY:||27 (26)||63 (64)||+2|
As we move headlong into the holiday season, there is some stability in this week's incarnation of the Daily Kos "State of the Nation" tracking poll. All of the individuals tested in the poll see gains in their net favorability of a point or two. After a couple of rough weeks in late November and early December, President Obama's numbers have levelled off. Nancy Pelosi's climb during that same time frame has also plateaued.
In this week's edition of the tracker, there is also a small lump of coal in the stocking of Congress, as both Congressional Republicans and Congressional Democrats see incremental dips in their numbers.
The only item of note in what is otherwise a pretty unspectacular edition of the tracking poll is that the GOP has now come as close as they have come all year in our interpretation of the "Generic Ballot Test" for Congress. What was, during the summer, a double-digit Democratic advantage has now, at the close of 2009, been whittled down to just two points:
QUESTION: Would you like to see more Democrats or Republicans elected to Congress in 2010?
Not Sure 30
Bear in mind, that a lead does not mean a continuation of the status quo. To maintain the sizeable House majorities that they have post-2008, the Democrats would probably need a vote edge of closer to 6-8%. A two-point edge would almost certainly equate to a double-digit net loss of House seats for the Democrats.
This has to generate some alarm for Democrats, as does the fact that the already weak voter intensity numbers for Democrats in our tracking poll have actually gotten worse over the last week. Whereas the likely/unlikely participation spread two weeks ago stood at a mediocre 56/37 ratio, it now dips to 53/41. Republicans have seen a bit of a drop in intensity, as well, but their level of voter intensity (78/18) is still far superior to that of the Democrats.