I recently got an email from the Washington State Democrats about Suzan DelBene, who has announced her candidacy in the Eighth Congressional District. I happen to live in the solidly Democratic Seventh District (where Jim McDermott usually gets about 75% of the vote).
The eighth district is currently represented by a Republican, Dave Reichert. You might remember that Reichert beat Darcy Burner (fellow Kossack) in both 2006 and 2008. Burner has announced that she won’t be running again. So far, the only Democratic candidate (that I know of) is DelBene.
I think there’s a good chance we could turn WA-08 from red to blue in 2010 and I thought it would be worth writing about. Follow me below the fold if you want to know more.
The Electoral History of WA-08
The eighth congressional district was created after the census of 1980. Since then, the voters there have always voted for a Republican. Starting with the 1982 election, the representatives from WA-08 were Rod Chandler (1983-1992), Jennifer Dunn (1993-2004), and Dave Reichert (2005-present).
Here’s a graph of how WA-08 voted in the last 14 congressional elections.
Data taken from reports assembled by the Clerk of the House of Representatives. Asterisk* = years with a third party candidate.
It was once a pretty safe seat for Republicans – through 2002, they consistently got about 60%. In the last three elections, however, the Republican has squeaked by with about 52%.
It’s no longer solidly Republican. According to McClatchy (Will anti-stimulus vote topple Washington State's Reichert?), the district has voted for the Democrat in the last three presidential elections:
Even so, [Reichert’s] district has become increasingly Democratic. Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore won the district by 2 percentage points in 2000 and John Kerry won it by 3 percentage points in 2004. Barack Obama won it last year by 15 percentage points.
The Cook Political Report (House Competitive Race Charts) lists WA-08 as leaning Republican in the 2010 House race, but they give it a PVI of D+3.
In May 2009, the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) listed WA-08 as one of ten vulnerable Republican seats that needs defending (as reported by Politico here: NRCC aims to protect at-risk House Republican incumbents).
So even the NRCC thinks the Democrats have a chance to win.
The Geography and People of WA-08
The eighth district includes eastern King County and eastern Pierce County (which Seattleites call "The Eastside," meaning east of Seattle, but west of the Cascade mountains). Dkosopedia has a map of the district here: WA-08.
Incidentally, Pierce County was named after President Franklin Pierce. King County was named after William Rufus Devane King, Pierce’s Vice President. King was a slave-owner and was rumored to have been Pierce’s gay lover. He died of tuberculosis after 45 days as VP. In 1986, the King County Council voted to rename the county. Henceforth, the county would be named in honor of Martin Luther King, Jr. Later, the State passed a law confirming this change.
Seattle is the most populous city in Washington (580,000), Tacoma (30 miles south of Seattle) is the third largest (196,000), and Bellevue (just to the east of Seattle) is the fifth largest (117,000). Lake Washington separates Seattle from Bellevue. There are two floating bridges that cross the lake.
Bellevue is the largest city in WA-08. Seattleites tend to think of Bellevue as a suburb. People in Bellevue prefer to think that, as the fifth-largest city in the state, they are an independent and unique urban center. They have a point. Some of the companies headquartered in WA-08 include Costco, Paccar (trucks), Expedia, T-Mobile, Value Village, and Coinstar, to name a few. Nearby companies are Microsoft and Nintendo of America (in WA-01) and Boeing's Renton factory and Weyerhaueser (in WA-09). Many of their employees live in WA-08. While I'm mentioning companies, Seattle has Amazon.com, Starbucks, and Nordstrom -- they, too, have numerous employees living in the Eighth district.
As you go east, the terrain quickly becomes mountainous and rural. King and Pierce Counties both border on Puget Sound (sea level). The highest point in King County is Mount Daniel (7960 feet), which is about 60 miles directly east of Seattle. The highest point in Pierce County is Mount Rainier (14,410 feet, which makes it the fifth highest mountain in the contiguous 48 states); Rainier is roughly 50 miles southeast of Tacoma.
Bellevue has grown very rapidly. Before the first floating bridge opened in 1940, it was a small rural town. Then it became a suburban bedroom community (people lived there, but worked in Seattle). Now it has its own skyscrapers. According to the Census, Bellevue’s population has grown from 1,180 (1940) to 12,810 (1960) to 73,900 (1980) to 110,000 (2000). It’s no longer a mostly rich, mostly white suburb. It’s becoming more diverse, both racially and economically. Those demographic changes, plus the influx of high-tech workers, have made it possible for Democrats to think about winning WA-08.
The Candidates in WA-08
Dave Reichert is the Republican who currently holds the seat. If he runs for re-election, he’ll have the advantages of incumbency – including name recognition and money.
Reichert was one of several detectives who investigated the Green River Killer. Reichert eventually became the Sheriff of King County and is credited by some for catching Gary Ridgway. Ridgway was arrested in 2001. He was convicted of 48 murders (over a period of 20 years). He confessed to 71, and there might be more. Some people think Sheriff Reichert, uhhh, exaggerated his role in catching Ridgway; others think he should have solved the case sooner than 20 years. Before the Green River Killer came along, Washington's most prolific serial killer was Ted Bundy (who, by the way, was a staunch Republican who worked on several campaigns and attended the 1968 Republican national convention).
I’ve seen rumors that some Republicans in the state are trying to convince Reichert to run against Patty Murray for her Senate seat. If he does challenge Murray, WA-08 would become an open seat.
Reichert likes to claim that he’s independent-minded and mavericky. Occasionally he’ll vote the right way, but he generally follows the Republican line. He gets high marks for his voting record from conservative groups such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, NRA, and National Right to Life.
Ernest Huber, wingnut Christian teabagger, doesn’t have a chance of winning, but you might want to look at his website, which is simultaneously funny and scary: Ernest Huber for Congress. He wants to eliminate the IRS, the Fed, the EPA, and numerous other agencies. Being gay is a "personality disorder." Abortion is a "war crime." Atheists are "spiritually and morally handicapped." Communists are "psychopathic" and "subhuman." Feminism is "contrary to women’s nature." You get the idea: very earnest but completely insane.
When he’s elected (yeah, good luck with that), the first thing Huber will do is introduce a bill of impeachment against Barack Obama. And then what? "My second order of business from the floor will be, due to blatant Democrat Congressional corruption, to call upon the Commanding General of the United States Army Military District of Washington to immediately take into custody Barack Obama, his staff, and others for those crimes."
WTF? Sounds to me like he’s advocating a military coup.
Four Democrats from the district:
Darcy Burner has announced she isn’t running again; she’s currently the executive director of the American Progressive Caucus Policy Foundation. If you were at Netroots Nation in Pittsburgh, she’s the one who gave the closing keynote address. She was introduced by some guy named Markos Moulitsas.
Ross Hunter has also announced he’s not running; he has endorsed Suzan DelBene. In 2009, he lost in the primary for King County Executive. He’s currently a member of the State House of Representatives.
Rodney Tom (currently in the State Senate) is a possibility, I suppose. In 2002, he was elected as a Republican, but then switched to the Democrats. In 2007, he announced for WA-08 but quickly withdrew and endorsed Darcy Burner. Who knows if he’ll try again? Update: One of the comments below says he won't be running.
Suzan DelBene is the only Democrat I've found (so far) who has announced for WA-08 in 2010. More about her below.
There may be other candidates; the deadline for filing for the primary election is June 11, 2010.
Washington State has a top-two primary, which means the top two vote-getters (regardless of party affiliation) advance to the general election. Which means the general election might give voters the choice of two Republicans – or two Democrats – or a Democrat and a Libertarian – or a Republican and a Tea Partier. The top-two primary is a really stupid system, the result of weird state politics, including a bunch of lawsuits and initiatives.
The Stranger called Suzan DelBene "Darcy Burner 2.0" (Try, Try Again: A New Democrat Rises in the 8th District). Both DelBene and Burner worked at Microsoft, DelBene as a vice president and Burner as a mid-level manager. DelBene has money (she has already put $200,000 into her campaign).
Here’s how Politico compares Burner and DelBene (Microsoft shadow looms over Reichert):
The two candidates have also cultivated distinctly different constituencies. Burner, a regular contributor to the liberal blog Daily Kos who launched her second campaign with an anti-war video, was embraced by the Netroots, which donated hundreds of thousands of dollars to her campaign.
But her liberal politics, though well-suited for online activists, limited her appeal in the moderate suburban seat. She twice lost narrowly in suburban King County, which casts roughly 80 percent of the district vote, and lost by wider margins in Pierce County, which casts the remainder.
Where Burner talked about the war in Iraq, DelBene on her campaign website focuses on investment, jobs and the economy — with no mention of the war. And as she meets with local Democrats, she emphasizes her business background.
She might not be a flaming liberal, but I would argue that a solid Democrat is a hundred times better than Dave Reichert. I haven’t decided if I’ll donate to her; it’s still pretty early. Oops, I almost forgot: She has a (sloooow) website (Suzan DelBene, Democrat for Congress).
Also, I've found two Daily Kos diaries about DelBene (both from April 2009):
From SeattleDanny: Driving the GOP out of western Washington
From Sarge in Seattle: WA-08: Meet Newcomer Suzan DelBene