In yesterday's diary we see H Reid leading more easily than other time before, the poll for the first democrat in Nevada. Interesting. Maybe we see an improvement in his polls for reelection after his work in the Health Care Reform.
The next step in this series make us think in who can be the second democrat from Nevada. With one republican senator and a republican governor this is not a question with evident answer, and I hope this diary can help us finding this second democrat for next elections. In 2010 and in 2012 all the more important offices will be renewed, and republican incumbents are especially weak by scandals.
The first democrat, H Reid is in for 2010, and will not have an easy bid for reelection. The second and the third democrats should be in with all their strength. I think the second should think in 2012 for senate, and the third in 2010 for governor. I wish the second and the third democrats can run free without pressure from the stablishment and they choose different offices for run. Democratic Party in Nevada needs all its best in the tickets for next years. Republicans are weak but they can take advantage of a possible democratic bad work choosing candidates.
I remember and update from previous diaries the structure of this serie.
RANK OF BLUE STATES FROM HIGHER TO LOWER LEVEL OF ELECTED REPUBLICANS
- Maine: 2/2 Senate.
- Nevada: 1/2 Senate. Governor. 1/3 House. Lieutenant Governor.
- Iowa: 1/2 Senate. 2/5 House. 2 Statewide officers.
- New Hampshire: 1/2 Senate.
- New Jersey: Governor (*). 5/13 House. Lieutenant Governor (*).
- Minnesota: Governor. 3/8 House. Lieutenant Governor.
- California: Governor. 19/53 House. Lieutenant Governor (*). 1 Statewide Officer.
- Vermont: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer.
- Hawaii: Governor. Lieutenant Governor.
- Connecticut: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. (Without include J Lieberman).
- Rhode Island: Governor.
- Delaware: 1/1 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
- Michigan: 7/15 House. 2 Statewide Officers. MI Senate majority.
- Wisconsin: 3/8 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
- Pennsylvania: 7/19 House. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer. PA Senate majority.
- Illinois: 7/19 House.
- Washington: 3/9 House. 2 Statewide Officers.
- Colorado: 2/7 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
- Oregon: 1/5 House.
- Maryland: 1/8 House.
- New York: 2/29 House.
- New Mexico: 1 Statewide Officer.
- Massachusetts: No-one.
(*): Without take office still.
For national level: With a consolidated blue ticket we can look to republican side.
REPUBLICAN POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FROM BLUE STATES BY SERIOUSNESS.
- Timothy James Pawlenty: MN 1960 Governor of MN 03-11.
- George Elmer Pataki: NY 1945 Governor of NY 95-06.
- Willard Mitt Romney: MI MA 1947 Governor of MA 03-07. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 94.
- Rudolph William Louis Giuliani: NY 1944 Mayor of New York 94-01. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 00.
- Gary Earl Johnson: ND NM 1953 Governor of New Mexico 95-03.
- Richard John Santorum: VA PA 1958 Senator from PA 95-07. USHRep 91-95. Lost for Senate 06.
But we will see all they in his home state.
For state level:
DEMOCRATS IN THE CABINET OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.
Still no-one.
DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.
THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.
ME1: Chellie M Pingree: MN ME 1955 USHRep 09- . Lost for Senate 02.
IA1: Thomas Richard Harkin: IA 1939 Senator from Iowa 85- . USHRep 75-85. Lost for President 92. Lost for House 72.
NV1: Harry Mason Reid: NV 1939 Senator from Nevada 87- . USHRep 83-87. Lieutenant Governor of NV 71-75. Lost for Senate 74.
NH1: Cynthia Jeanne Shaheen: MO NH 1947 Senator from New Hampshire 09- . Governor of New Hampshire 97-03. Lost for senate 02.
THE FIRST DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00.000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01.429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02.857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04.286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05.714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07.142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08.571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10.000 ---
IA: T Harkin (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 10 votes = 03.167 => Leans Republican
ME: C Pingree (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 25 votes = 03.267 => Leans Republican
ME: C Pingree (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.529 => Leans Republican
IA: T Harkin (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 17 votes = 06.373 => Leans Democratic
ME: C Pingree (D) vs P Mills (R) after 16 votes = 07.188 => Likely Democratic
THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.
ME2: John Elias Baldacci: ME 1955 Governor of ME 03-11. USHRep 95-03.
NH2: John H Lynch: MA NH 1952 Governor of New Hampshire 05- .
IA2: Thomas James Vilsack: PA IA 1950 Secretary of Agriculture 09- . Governor of Iowa 99-07. Lost for President 08.
NV2: Today
THE SECOND DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.
IA: T Vilsack (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 13 votes = 03.205 => Leans Republican
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 32 votes = 03.649 => Leans Republican
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs S Collins (R) after 20 votes = 04.083 => Leans Republican
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs P Mills (R) after 06 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
IA: T Vilsack (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 19 votes = 04.386 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 15 votes = 05.667 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 15 votes = 05.667 => Toss-Up
THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.
ME3: Michael Herman Michaud: ME 1955 USHRep 03- . President ME Senate 00-02.
NH3: Paul Hodes: NY NH 1951 USHRep 07- . Lost for House 04.
IA3: David Loebsack: IA 1952 USHRep 07- .
NV3:
THE THIRD DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.
IA: D Loebsack (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 12 votes = 02.500 => Likely Republican
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 15 votes = 03.222 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.431 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 28 votes = 03.571 => Leans Republican
IA: D Loebsack (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 15 votes = 04.333 => Toss-Up
ME: M Michaud (D) vs P Mills (R) after 04 votes = 04.583 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 14 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 06 votes = 05.556 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Sununu (R) after 13 votes = 05.769 => Leans Democratic
ME: M Michaud (D) vs J McKernan (R) after 06 votes = 05.833 => Leans Democratic
NH: P Hodes (D) vs C Benson (R) after 13 votes = 07.308 => Likely Democratic
NV: Third democrat vs J Ensign (R)
NV: Third democrat vs J Gibbons (R)
NV: Third democrat vs B Sandoval (R)
NV: Third democrat vs D Heller (R)
NV: Third democrat vs B Krolicki (R)
NV: Third democrat vs S Lowden (R)
If you see this diary after days, you can see the last actualization of this serie in my last diary. All the polls continue open to new votes still. The results of polls of previous diaries are updated too in the last diary specially the diaries with lower number of votes. For see my last diary click in "abgin's diary".