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Today we came to the end of this serie of diaries about gubernatorial races. Thanks to all voters in all polls because that is a very important part of this work and with their votes, they make interesting this work.

In next electoral round will not be easy win all current states with democratic governor, because term limits favor the changes.

I think a good target for next round of gubernatorial races can be not lose in number of governors, and try win any more. I think can be possible. For that obviously democratic party must win more new states than lose. Our series of polls tell the people think that is possible.

We can comment these results.

Last Update: Mar 26, 2009, for include the link to the mix of series.

Democratic Party end this electoral round with 28 governors in 28 states, after lost Arizona with J Napolitano's nomination for the cabinet.

First i will remember the scale for add labels to the races. In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---

STATES WITH BLUE GOVERNOR WITHOUT GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS

Democratic Party will start this electoral round with 7 governors in 7 states where will not have gubernatorial elections in 2009-2010 electoral round. They are:

DE: with J Markell
WA: with C Gregoire
WV: with J Manchin
MT: with B Schweitzer
NC: with B Perdue
MO: with J Nixon
KY: with S Beshear

That make Democratic Party need win 21 races in this electoral round for not lose governors.

SAFE DEMOCRATIC STATES

The people with their votes label 7 states like Safe Democratic. All are states with democratic incumbent who will run for reelection. The basis of this calification was the next poll, where the people identify democratic incumbent with more problems for reelection:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races. Democratic incumbents are safe?

This are the 7 states qualified like Safe Democratic:

NH-Gov: Incumbent J Lynch (D-1952) win in 2008 with 70%.
CO-Gov: Incumbent W Ritter (D-1956) win in 2006 with 56%.
IA-Gov: Incumbent C Culver (D-1966) win in 2006 with 54%.
WI-Gov: Incumbent J Doyle (D-1945) win in 2006 with 53%.
MA-Gov: Incumbent D Patrick (D-1956) win in 2006 with 55%.
AR-Gov: Open R vs M Beebe (D-1946) ? after 14 votes = 09,286 => Safe Democratic
MD-Gov: R Ehrlich (R-1957) vs M O'Malley (D-1963) ? af 17 votes = 08,824 => Safe Democratic

Arkansas is the red, or the more red state in this group. All others are blue states.

For me the more weak point of this calification can came from the participation in the race of any strong republican. I think the strongest in this states are M Huckabee (AR), J Sununu (NH) and B Owens (CO). I think if they run in 2010 they will run for senate against B Lincoln (AR), M Bennet (CO), and P Hodes (NH). M Huckabee can think in run for President. B Owens and J Sununu seems can run for Senate. Senator J Gregg (NH) tell is probably he not run for reelection. Another republicans what make me feel any danger in these states are T Branstad (IA) but seems the people not feel risk with him. R Ehrlich (MD) and M Romney (MA) seems very weak in their states. We talk about these republicans in these diaries:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states I
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states II.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states III.

With the states of this group they will be 14 democratic governors after this electoral round. Democratic Party need 14 more for came to 28 states.

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC STATES

The people with their votes label 10 states like Likely Democratic. They are:

IL-Gov: Open R vs P Quinn (D-1948) ? after 27 votes = 08,395 => Likely Democratic
OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs J Kitzhaber (D-1947) ? af 12 votes = 08,194 => Likely Democratic
NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs A Cuomo (D-1957) ? af 20 votes = 08,083 => Likely Democratic
CA-Gov: Open R vs J Brown (D-1938) ? after 36 votes = 07,963 => Likely Democratic
HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs N Abercrombie (D-1938) ? af 19 votes = 07,895 => Likely Democr
WY-Gov: Open R vs D Freudenthal (D-1950) ? after 20 votes = 07,833 => Likely Democratic
OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 16 votes = 07,813 => Likely Democr
ME-Gov: Open R vs ? after 12 votes = 07,778 => Likely Democratic
VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs H Dean (D-1948) ? aft 30 votes = 07,667 => Likely Democratic
2 OR-Gov: G Smith (R-1952) vs ? after 07 votes = 07,619 => Likely Democratic
2 HI-Gov: J Aiona (R-1955) vs ? after 17 votes = 07,396 => Likely Democratic
NM-Gov: Open R vs D Denish (D-1949) ? after 23 votes = 07,319 => Likely Democratic
2 CA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 44 votes = 07,045 => Leans Democratic
2 OH-Gov: M DeWine (R-1947) vs ? after 13 votes = 06,923 => Leans Democratic
2 NY-Gov: R Giuliani (R-1944) vs D Paterson (D-1954) ? af 35 votes = 06,905 => Leans Democr
2 VT-Gov: J Douglas (R-1951) vs ? after 18 votes = 04,352 => Toss-Up

We have in this group, states with democratic incumbents few more weak, any blue states with democratic incumbents who retires by term limits, and first states with republican incumbents who must retire too by term limits.

The new governor of Illinois seems so strong for reelection. Seems will not have strong primaries.

Seems D Freudenthal (WY) will can bid for a third term. That make change drasticly the chance of win in this state for democrats. With D Freudenthal the label up until Likely Democratic in one of more red states of all the country.

T Strickland (OH) is the democratic incumbent who can have more serious challenger. M DeWine republican not seems very strong now and last polls tell T Strickland can have high advantage, and OH can be blue state in next years. I think only R Giuliani (NY) can have near strongness like challenger for races with label Safe of Likely Democratic. After see the first polls post G Voinovich and about senate, not seems clear if can be necessary T Strickland run for senate. For me is not sure M DeWine can win any of first level races, including the race for OH Attorney General.

The people think J Corzine (NJ) and D Paterson (NY) are the more weak incumbents. In New York im few surprised by the results of polls. D Paterson seems have in their poll punish vote what low their rate. He get like second option. I dont know if will have primaries in NY between D Paterson and A Cuomo, but i think the winner of possible primaries can defeat R Giuliani (if Giuliani run) so easily, if they not are destructive primaries. That make me worry few and feel any danger, destructive primaries.

From the three states where must change democratic incumbent by term limits, the races in Oregon, and Maine not make feel danger to the people. The change of governor can be so easy. In Oregon, maybe J Kitzhaber help to win. In New Mexico, i hope virtual governor for some days D Denish not get dammaged by possible scandals around B Richardson governor. If we don't have surprises the change can be so easy too.

From the last three states, where must change republican incumbent by term limits, the races of Hawaii and California make the people trust in the chance of win. Republicans dont have very strong candidates, and in democratic side seems the best possible candidates will run. N Abercrombie and J Brown veterans seems strong candidates. I think finally D Feinstein will get in senate. Better for not open this door to A Schwarzenegger.

Is not habitual see Vermont with this label. I think in Vermont is possible defeat J Douglas governor if Democratic Party from Vermont think in make. This label of "Likely Democratic" for VT-Gov race depend of H Dean.

In this group of states (without Wyoming), J Douglas (VT) and L Lingle (HI) seems are the strongest republicans. J Douglas will run for reelection, and L Lingle can not run for governor by term limits and will must wait a chance for run for senate if not like lose in 2010. A Schwarzenegger (CA) is in same situation of L Lingle, but few more weak. Other republicans what make me feel any danger are J Edgard (IL), officially retired, J McKernan (ME) and G Johnson (NM) but the people not feel this danger. More famous republicans can run in this states. G Pataki (NY) can run for senate, and M DeWine (OH) must choose. He sound for governor. G Smith (OR) seems very weak in Oregon for any race. We talk too about these republicans too in these links:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states I
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states II.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states III.

With the states of this group would be 23+Vermont blue states in 2010, winning until now 3 states to republicans (HI, CA and VT). Democratic party need 4 states more for came to 28 if we include Vermont.

LEANS DEMOCRATIC STATES

The people with their votes make 5 states have this label. They are:

NV-Gov: J Gibbons (R-1944) vs ? after 23 votes = 06,957 => Leans Democratic
NJ-Gov: C Christie (R-1962) vs J Corzine (D- 1947) ? af 22 votes = 06,667 => Leans Democratic
RI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 13 votes = 06,538 => Leans Democratic
PA-Gov: Open R vs ? after 15 votes = 06,000 => Leans Democratic
MI-Gov: Open R vs ? after 33 votes = 05,758 => Leans Democratic

I think this group of races will be very important. To fail in any race can make sure democratic party not can come to 28 states.

This year J Corzine have the race for reelection. Not seems very strong, the polls tell that. I hope see all democrats close in New Jersey after primaries. If democrats not win this race seems so sure democrats can lose governors after this electoral round. Republican candidate in this state not seems very strong, but can make a competitive race.

In Nevada, they have unpopular incumbent by scandals. The people think J Gibbons is weak and can be defeated by any of possible candidates in this state. He is the more weak republican incumbent, but in this state not have democratic stars like in Vermont. H Reid have too their problems.

L Chaffee like independent make feel few more doubts to democrats about the victory in Rhode Island of democratic candidate. I wish and i hope democratic party of Rhode Island cand find a good candidate and win this state. Not seems very difficult.

Im much more worry about Pennsylvania and Michigan. In Pennsylvania, i think the winner of democratic primary can be so strong, specially if E Rendell run for senate, and make all other possible candidates think in the race for governor. I think that can be good for the chance of democratic party in Pennsylvania. We see just that in republican side. With A Specter for senate, all other decent possible republican candidates look to governors race. Any competitive republican challenger for this race can be former governor M Schweiker and current PA Attorney General T Corbett.

For Michigan i wish see a nomination of J Granholm for the cabinet. I think shee is one of bests democratic candidates for a cabinet place, and that was so good for the chance of democratic party in this race. I see republican serious young candidates in Michigan, like in no-one other blue state, and i think was very good came to 2010 with J Cherry Lieutenant Governor like incumbent governor. If we not see that, the race for governor in Michigan will not be very easy, but the people think is possible win.

The strongest republican in the state of this group is J Ensign (NV), who will get in senate. J Gibbons (NV) will run like unpopular incumbent. D Carcieri (RI) came to term limits, and seems not have chance for senate in RI. A republican who make me feel any danger is M Schweiker (PA) but the people not feel same risk. He sound for governor. Other famous republicans like R Santorum (PA), J Engler (MI) and M Romney (for MI) seems very weak in this states. We talk about they in these links:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states I
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states II.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states III.

With the states of this group, democratic party would win 28+Vermont states, winning to republican 4+Vermont. Like we will see in next group, lose any of this states will make very difficult for democratic party came to current 28 governors after this electoral round.

TOSS-UP STATES

The people with their votes only give this label to 3 states. They are:

VA-Gov: R McDonnell (R-1954) vs ? after 27 votes = 05,494 => Toss-Up
AZ-Gov: J Brewer (R-1944) vs ? after 19 votes = 04,912 => Toss-Up
MN-Gov: T Pawlenty (R-1960) vs M Dayton (D-1947) ? after 41 votes = 04,512 => Toss-Up

The race in Virginia is so clear, three candidates in democratic side and one in republican. This will be one of more importants race in this electoral round. The people give a Toss-Up label to this race. Is a Toss-Up more near to democrats. Win this race can assure succesful electoral round for Democratic Party. Virginia is the 30th state for democrats, or the 29th+Vermont.

The people think they are options of recover Arizona in 2010 after the nomination of J Napolitano for the cabinet, but this is a pure Toss-Up. J Brewer republican will be favored by be incumbent in a red state and democratic party not have stars for this race. Not seem easy win in Arizona.

And the label for Minnesota is Toss-Up but more near republicans. I think T Pawlenty must be a target for democratic party. He not have term limits and for out of governorship must be defeated before he run for another office (like senate in 2014 against A Franken, or president). With M Dayton in the race, the best level in democratic candidate is assured, and i glad for that. Maybe any can defeat M Dayton in primaries. If they are better candidates they will prove winning in primaries.

Until now, the labels tell democratic party have in their half 30 states including Vermont, and republican party 20 including Arizona. If democratic party not try defeat J Douglas with a highest level candidate, VT-Gov race label down to this Toss-Up group, with a Toss-Up very near Leans Republican, and the final result of this electoral round can be 29-21.

LEANS REPUBLICAN STATES

The people with their votes let 2 states with Leans Republican label. They are:

FL-Gov: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? after 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
CT-Gov: J Rell (R-1946) vs ? after 34 votes = 03,137 => Leans Republican

Florida now is the most difficult state for analize. The race can change absolutely if C Christ run for senate, if B Graham or J Bush enter in the race, or if second level candidates win the primaries. The polls tell would be very interesting for democratic party recruit B Graham for any race, but republicans have too J Bush in reserve. Against C Christ incumbent, only B Graham can out this race of Likely or Safe Republican territory.

The last blue state, and probably the hardest for gubernatorial races would be Connecticut. I think S Bysiewicz is good candidate for this race, and i hope with time she can win recognition and improve the peoples expectations.

LIKELY AND SAFE REPUBLICAN STATES

After make two bids for try see difference between this group of states im not capable of see difference in the polls. Only Nevada, Arizona and Florida (with B Graham) was viewed better and get out this group. Last change in WY term limits can make D Freudenthal continue, and this make out of this group WY-Gov race. The change of governor in Kansas will let the race in same situation, because the new governor was out of the race, and will not run for reelection. Cause of that, all other races, including KS-Gov get in this group of races. These was the bids:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Guvernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Gubernatorial races in red states with republican incumbent or open seat II
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Hardest gubernatorial races.

Seems the people not see difference between a group of 12 states. The people feel very pessimist about these races for governor:

TN-Gov: Open seat. P Bredesen (D-1943) win in 2006 with 69%.
OK-Gov: Open seat. B Henry (D-1963) win in 2006 with 66%.
TX-Gov: Open seat?. R Perry (R-1950) win in 2006 with 39%. K Hutchison (R-1943) like run.
KS-Gov: Open seat. K Sebelius (D-1948) win in 2006 with 58%. S Brownback (R-1956) like run.
SC-Gov: Open seat. M Sanford (R-1960) win in 2006 with 55%.
GA-Gov: Open seat. S Perdue (R-1946) win in 2006 with 58%.
AL-Gov: Open seat. B Riley (R-1944) win in 2006 with 58%.
SD-Gov: Open seat. M Rounds (R-1954) win in 2006 with 62%.
AK-Gov: Incumbent S Palin (R-1964) win in 2006 with 48%.
ID-Gov: Incumbent B Otter (R-1942) win in 2006 with 53%.
NE-Gov: Incumbent D Heineman (R-1948) win in 2006 with 73%.

That like tell the people feel sure Democratic Party will lose three states in next gubernatorial round (TN, OK, and KS).

I think they are few differences between these states. I think the best chance for democrats can be in OK, GA, AL and SC, specially in Oklahoma, where all statewide elected officers are democrats, but they are red or very red states.

SUMMARY

After the next 2009-2010 electoral round, the people feel or think:

  1. Democratic Party can win 5 states (HI, CA, VT, NV and RI), and maybe any more (AZ,...).
  1. Democratic Party can lose 3 states (TN, OK and KS), and maybe any more (VA,...)

Seems possible to keep the current number of governors (28) and to improve few.

Cause of that:

  1. I like endorse and encourage all democratic incumbents who can run again for governor, D Freudenthal included, with the exception of M Parkinson, who will not run, and maybe D Paterson. Im neutral about a possible primary between D Paterson and A Cuomo in New York.
  1. I like encourage specially J Corzine because he have so bad polls and democratic party need this victory in a blue state like New Jersey.
  1. I like endorse and encourage to run J Kitzhaber, J Brown (running), D Denish (running) and N Abercrombie (running) because they can be strong candidates for win in their states. My heart is with J Garamendi (running) (of course i endorse and encourage too J Garamendi).
  1. In ME, NV, RI, and PA i hope the best candidates run. Democratic Party need win all these races. I like encourage E Rendell for run for senate in 2010. He can defeat all republicans for this race, and he can make up the level of democratic candidates in the primaries for governor in PA. Is very important will all this races for keep the number of governors.
  1. I like encourage all democrats from Nevada because, J Gibbons is weak and must be a very clear target for Democratic Party.
  1. I like encourage H Dean to run against J Douglas, who must be another very clear target for Democratic Party. I think not have H Dean in the cabinet is one of three top weak points in this cabinet.
  1. I like encourage Obama to appoint J Granholm (MI) for a place in the cabinet, in the first good chance, before 2010. I think not have J Granholm in the cabinet is other of three top weak points in this cabinet. Michigan would be the 29th democratic governor in this serie (with D Freudenthal and H Dean running).

For me the third top weak point in this cabinet is what i think the Obama-Kennedy-Massachusetts conexion get few weak. For me would be nice see too J Kerry in the cabinet.

  1. They are more options for improve the number of democratic governors in next electoral round. Good options can be Michigan, Virginia (2009), Arizona, Minnesota and Connecticut. I think T Pawlenty and J Rell must be a tarjet for Democratic Party.
  1. The battleground states will be NJ (2009), PA, MI, VA (2009), AZ, MN, and CT.
  1. Florida is the big doubt.

SENATE RACES IN 2010

For see about the same serie for senate races in next electoral round, click in next link:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Mix of all races.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: All senate races.

Originally posted to abgin on Tue Feb 10, 2009 at 01:07 AM PST.

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