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Some things change in New Hampshire in few time. Senator J Gregg will be Secretary of Commerce if have their taxes payed, J Lynch governor tell will nor run for senate in 2010 and now must appointed new senator from New Hampshire, B Newman, former president of Republicans for Lynch in New Hampshire, will be new senator if J Gregg nomination became succesfull, but she tell will not run for reelection in 2010.

Well, very much changes in few time. And all that let a open seat for senate in New Hampshire in 2010 for all challengers.

In republican side, J Sununu seems the strongest republican. He lost last November against former governor J Shaheen, in a rematch of the race of 2002, where J Sununu defeat J Shaheen.

Republican Party now dont have in New Hampshire house representatives or statewide officers elected at state level elections. Since now, only will have B Newman, and she will not run.

UPDATE: Well, just today more changes for NH. J Gregg appointment became unsuccesfull and B Newman will not be appointed senator. J Gregg get like alone high level republican officer in New Hampshire, but tell he "probably" will not run for reelection. I think surely. After all that seems politically destroyed.

For that, republicans must find between former officers if like have people with any political experience, and that let advantage to J Sununu over other republicans. The people feel any danger with J Sununu, but not with other former high level officers from New Hampshire like S Merril, C Benson or R Smith. We can see about all they in these links:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states I
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states II.
2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For defense in races in blue states III.

In republican side sound too former US House Representative C Bass, but is more weak after be defeated in the rematch of 2006 for House by P Hodes.

Other possible republican candidate is current NH Attorney General K Ayotte, but is an Attorney General appointed by former republican governor, without experience in statewide races.

In democratic side, this is the list of possible candidates:

  1. John H Lynch: MA NH 1952 Governor of New Hampshire 05- .
  1. Carol Shea-Porter: NY NH 1952 USHRep 07- .
  1. Paul Hodes: NY NH 1951 USHRep 07- . Lost for House 04.
  1. Richard Swett: PA NH 1957 USHRep 91-95. Lost for Senate 96. Lost for House 94.
  1. Sylvia Larsen: OH NH 1949 President of NH Senate 07- .
  1. Joseph Nadeau: NH 19??

Like we can see the list of possible candidates not in long, but democrats have currently all the more important offices in the state. J Lynch governor officially is out of the race, and that open the door to other candidates.

P Hodes is running, and (after J Lynch governor) seems the strongest possible democratic candidate. He lead the polls, but in last days C Shea-Porter seems very near. I wish not see a primary between P Hodes and C Shea-Porter because i think maybe bad for two.

Sylvia Larsen can run for P Hodes House seat. That is good new too.

I think this senate seat would be Leans or Likely democratic with J Lynch governor running, but he not like.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---

PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 60 votes = 07,333 => Likely Democratic
KS-Sen: open R vs K Sebelius (D-1948) ? after 43 votes = 06,240 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,606 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 35 votes = 05,571 => Toss-Up
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 09 votes = 05,556 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 38 votes = 05,307 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 39 votes = 05,000 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 55 votes = 03,727 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican

*: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For find any strong candidate more for senate

And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:

AK-Sen: L Murkovski (R-1957) vs T Knowles (D-1943) ?
SD-Sen: J Thune (R-1961) vs ?
ID-Sen: M Crapo (R-1951) vs ?
SC-Sen: J DeMint (R-1951) vs J Hodges (D-1956) ?
AL-Sen: R Shelby (R-1934) vs J Folsom (D-1949) ?
GA-Sen: J Isakson (R-1944) vs ?
UT-Sen: R Bennett (R-1933) vs ?

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Republican Safe or Likely Seats?

All the polls are open.

PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.

Originally posted to abgin on Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 03:52 AM PST.

Poll

NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ?

0%0 votes
25%3 votes
25%3 votes
25%3 votes
8%1 votes
16%2 votes
0%0 votes

| 12 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  don't hold your breath (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    furi kuri

    Ed Rendell will never run against Arlen Specter

  •  A jerky-sounding question (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin

    This isn't a complaint, rather an observation. I've noticed that you put a year, presumably a date of birth, next to  an officeholder's name rather than the party affiliation and state. This just seems, well, odd, and I was wondering if there was a reason for it. I mean, ordinarily putting the date is meant to be snarky, ie McCain (R-1832). And knowing that Chet Culver was born in 1966 is informative, I guess - though that could be construed as snark if you thought he was too young for the job...

    Anyway, the usual nomenclature:

    Rep. Paul Hodes (D NH-02)
    Gov. Kathleen Sebelius (D-KS)
    Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D SD-AL)
    Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT)

    I hope this doesn't come across as mean-spirited (it certainly isn't meant that way).

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