Some things change in New Hampshire in few time. Senator J Gregg will be Secretary of Commerce if have their taxes payed, J Lynch governor tell will nor run for senate in 2010 and now must appointed new senator from New Hampshire, B Newman, former president of Republicans for Lynch in New Hampshire, will be new senator if J Gregg nomination became succesfull, but she tell will not run for reelection in 2010.
Well, very much changes in few time. And all that let a open seat for senate in New Hampshire in 2010 for all challengers.
In republican side, J Sununu seems the strongest republican. He lost last November against former governor J Shaheen, in a rematch of the race of 2002, where J Sununu defeat J Shaheen.
Republican Party now dont have in New Hampshire house representatives or statewide officers elected at state level elections. Since now, only will have B Newman, and she will not run.
UPDATE: Well, just today more changes for NH. J Gregg appointment became unsuccesfull and B Newman will not be appointed senator. J Gregg get like alone high level republican officer in New Hampshire, but tell he "probably" will not run for reelection. I think surely. After all that seems politically destroyed.
For that, republicans must find between former officers if like have people with any political experience, and that let advantage to J Sununu over other republicans. The people feel any danger with J Sununu, but not with other former high level officers from New Hampshire like S Merril, C Benson or R Smith. We can see about all they in these links:
In republican side sound too former US House Representative C Bass, but is more weak after be defeated in the rematch of 2006 for House by P Hodes.
Other possible republican candidate is current NH Attorney General K Ayotte, but is an Attorney General appointed by former republican governor, without experience in statewide races.
In democratic side, this is the list of possible candidates:
- John H Lynch: MA NH 1952 Governor of New Hampshire 05- .
- Carol Shea-Porter: NY NH 1952 USHRep 07- .
- Paul Hodes: NY NH 1951 USHRep 07- . Lost for House 04.
- Richard Swett: PA NH 1957 USHRep 91-95. Lost for Senate 96. Lost for House 94.
- Sylvia Larsen: OH NH 1949 President of NH Senate 07- .
- Joseph Nadeau: NH 19??
Like we can see the list of possible candidates not in long, but democrats have currently all the more important offices in the state. J Lynch governor officially is out of the race, and that open the door to other candidates.
P Hodes is running, and (after J Lynch governor) seems the strongest possible democratic candidate. He lead the polls, but in last days C Shea-Porter seems very near. I wish not see a primary between P Hodes and C Shea-Porter because i think maybe bad for two.
Sylvia Larsen can run for P Hodes House seat. That is good new too.
I think this senate seat would be Leans or Likely democratic with J Lynch governor running, but he not like.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
--- 01,429 ---
--- 02,857 ---
--- 04,286 ---
--- 05,714 ---
--- 07,142 ---
--- 08,571 ---
--- 10,000 ---
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 60 votes = 07,333 => Likely Democratic
KS-Sen: open R vs K Sebelius (D-1948) ? after 43 votes = 06,240 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,606 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 35 votes = 05,571 => Toss-Up
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 09 votes = 05,556 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 38 votes = 05,307 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 39 votes = 05,000 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 55 votes = 03,727 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
*: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.
And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:
AK-Sen: L Murkovski (R-1957) vs T Knowles (D-1943) ?
SD-Sen: J Thune (R-1961) vs ?
ID-Sen: M Crapo (R-1951) vs ?
SC-Sen: J DeMint (R-1951) vs J Hodges (D-1956) ?
AL-Sen: R Shelby (R-1934) vs J Folsom (D-1949) ?
GA-Sen: J Isakson (R-1944) vs ?
UT-Sen: R Bennett (R-1933) vs ?
All the polls are open.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.