While all eyes are on Iowa for the moment, I'd like to think a little about where the politics of Colorado are headed.
Colorado does not have elections for Governor, Lt. Governor, Secretary of State, Attorney General, or State Treasurer this year.
Colorado will not have a Presidential primary this year either. Political party caucuses held on April 13, will set the ball rolling in the Presidential race. Caucuses elect representives to the county assemblies (April 23 to May 12) based on a proportional representation of Presidential candidate basis, which in turn flows up to the state convention on a proportional basis (must be finished by June 6), and then to the national convention (in August for the Democrats) on the proportional basis. Realistically, the choices will be slimmed considerably by the time April 13, arrives, and the nomination could even be a statistical inevitability by that point. Turnout at precinct caucuses is typically about 1% of registered Democratic voters.
In federal elections the big race will be the U.S. Senate, in which a Democratic nominee will face off against Ben Nighthorse Campbell. Mike Miles, a biracial veteran and school principal is the front runner for the Democratic nomination. Brian Freeburg, a Denver lawyer, and Gary Hart, the former U.S. Senator and Presidential candidate, have also merited mentions.
And, in the Congressional races, the races to watch are the 7th Congressional District, which last year was the closest in the nation with Bob Beauprez winning by less than 200 votes, and the 3rd Congressional District, which covers the Western Slope and Pueblo and is an open seat this year. Two of the other seats (Boulder and Denver) are safe Democratic seats likely to be won by Udall and DeGette. Three of the other seats are safe for Republicans.
Dave Thomas, whose background is as a Jefferson County (Western Denver Suburb) Sheriff, is the only declared candidate for the 7th Congressional District. He was eliminated in the primary in 2002, and ran and lost for the Boulder Congressional seat in the 1980s. Jared Polis, a member of the State School Board and internet millionaire whose term is about to expire, has been discussed as another possible candidate in the race. Mr. Perlmutter, a Democratic State Senator, has bowed out of the race. No official word has been received from Mike Feeley, who lost in 2002 after receiving the Democratic nomination.
In the 3rd Congressional District, we have a Salzar, who is a relative of state attorney general Ken Salzar and Jim Spehar, a former Grand Junction Mayor, among others, in the Democratic party race.
The State Senate is currently divided 18 seats to Republicans, and 17 seats to Democrats. This year 18 seats are up for election, seven Republicans and 11 Democrats. This is the first year that the 2000 redistricting (which allegedly tilted in favor of Democrats, although evidence of that is scant) plays out.
Prior to redistricting, six of the seats were safe Republican seats, eight were safe Democratic seats, and one of the remaining four was held by a Republican, while three of the remaining four were held by Democrats.
Four State Senate seats are open as a result of term limits. Two are safe Republican seats. Two are not so safe Democratic party seats.
Democrats desparately want to win one more seat in the State Senate, so that they can stop Republican legislation. But, simply holding onto our seats will be a real challenge. Their best hope is that a good year for libertarians in 2004 would give them the edge they need. The Libertarian vote was close to the Democratic margin of victory in two Senate races in 2000. Recent legislation has made getting on the ballot harder for third parties, however, so it remains to be seen what impact this will have in 2004.
Hopes are dimmer in the State House. The Democrats are outnumbered 37-28 in that chamber, which was entirely elected in the 2000 census districts two years ago, and the likelihood that Democrats can pick up 5 more seats is slim.
A few seats on the State School Board, CU Board of Regents, and Regional Transportation District board (Denver metro area buses and light rail) are up for grabs, but there is no scuttlebut on them yet (except that Democrat Jared Polis is likely stepping down from his spot on the state school board).
All 21 district attorney positions in the state are facing election in 2004. This is unlikely to result in major partisan realignments, but could spawn some intense primary fights. Several candidates have dropped their hats into the ring in Denver.
There will be automatic judicial recall elections (six in the intermediate court of appeals and dozens of trial court judges), but all judges are expected to be retained.
Colorado's nomination process is a bit complex. A candidate who gets 30% or more support in the caucus process gets on the primary ballot, with the most supported candidate getting the top slot. Candidates who attempt the caucus process, but get less than 15% of the caucus process vote are not permitted on the primary ballot. Candidates who don't attempt the caucus process, or who get between 15% and 30% of the caucus process vote can petition onto the ballot.
In practice, very few primaries are contested, and even fewer candidates without support of the caucus process make it onto the general election ballot.
The few primaries (non-Presidential) that remain will be resolved on August 10.