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The first option for this race in this serie of diaries was the option of have republican governor J Rell in the race. Habitually i try fin best against best in these diaries, that let a good reference.

But i think J Rell is thinking in run for reelection, for that we need a second option for make better the serie. Like we can see in the first diary about this race, J Rell have so low chance against incumbent senator C Dodd, but she have much more chance if run for reelection. For that, i think republicans in CT think more in win gubernatorial race. These are the links:

CT-Sen: J Rell (R-1946) vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 33 votes = 06,869 => Leans Democratic
CT-Gov: J Rell (R-1946) vs ? after 33 votes = 03,232 => Leans Republican

We see in these diaries like J Rell is the alone strong option for republicans in CT. Now they have only M Fedele Lieutenant governor, who run in same ticket with J Rell in statewide offices. They dont have no-one US House Representatives in this state, and the highest level challengers for C Dodd can be former representatives. One of they, R Simmons, sound for this race. He can be their best with J Rell, M Fedele and former representative C Shays.

Like i make for all states, i will remember the list of possible candidates for this race:

  1. Christopher John Dodd: CT 1944 Senator from Connecticut 81- . USHRep 75-81. Lost for President 08.
  1. Christopher S Murphy: NY CT 1973 USHRep 07- .
  1. James A Himes: PER CT 1966 USHRep 09- .
  1. Rosa L DeLauro: CT 1943 USHRep 91- .
  1. John B Larson: CT 1948 USHRep 99- . Lost for Governor 94.
  1. Joseph Courtney: CT 1953 USHRep 07- . Lost for Lieutenant Governor 98. Lost for House 02.
  1. Anthony John Moffett: MA CT 1944 USHRep 74-83. Lost for Senate 82. Lost for Governor 86. Lost for House 90.
  1. Samuel Gejdenson: GER CT 1948 USHRep 81-01. Lost for House 00.
  1. Bruce Andrew Morrison: NY CT 1944 USHRep 83-91. Lost for Governor 90.
  1. James H Maloney: MA CT 1948 USHRep 97-03. Lost for House 94 and 02.
  1. Kevin B Sullivan: CT 1949 Lieutenant Governor of CT 04-07.
  1. Susan Bysiewicz: CT 1961 CT Secretary of State 99- .
  1. Richard Blumenthal: NY CT 1946 CT Attorney General 90- .
  1. Nancy S Wyman: CT 19?? CT State Comptroller 95- .
  1. Denise Lynn Nappier: CT 19?? CT State Treasurer 99- .

I think no-one of the will run in primaries against C Dodd. In this moment i think is better they think in gubernatorial race against Rell (S Bysiewicz is running) or in 2012 senate race against Lieberman (R Blumenthal and N Lamont think in run). I like encourage specially S Bysiewicz because she dont have easy work and her work can be very important for democratic party let back the problems in Connecticut.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00,000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01,429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02,857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04,286 ---
--- 05,714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07,142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08,571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10,000 ---

For see about senate races with the strongest democratic incumbents:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Safe democratic incumbents?

HI-Sen: Incumbent D Inouye (D-1924) win in 2004 76%. Biggest danger (low): L Lingle (R-1953).
NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 71%. Without danger.
VT-Sen: Incumbent P Leahy (D-1940) win in 2004 71%. Biggest danger (low): J Douglas (R-1951).
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 65%. Without danger.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 63%. Without danger.
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 55%. Without danger.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 55%. Without danger.
IN-Sen: Incumbent E Bayh (D-1955) win in 2004 62%. Biggest danger (low): M Daniels (R-1949).
AR-Sen: Incumbent B Lincoln (D-1960) win in 2004 56%. Biggest danger (low): M Huckabee (R-1955).
ND-Sen: Incumbent B Dorgan (D-1942) win in 2004 68%. Biggest danger (low): J Hoeven (R-1957).

CA-Sen: A Schwarzenegger (R-1947) vs B Boxer (D-1940) ? after 25 votes = 08,600 Safe Dem
IL-Sen: open R vs open D ? after 24 votes = 08,264 => Likely Democratic
CT-Sen: open R vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 32 votes = 08,073 => Likely Democratic
NY-Sen: G Pataki (R-1945) vs K Gillibrand (D-1966) ? after 66 votes = 07,854 => Likely Democr
DE-Sen: M Castle (R-1939) vs B Biden (D-1969) ? after 34 votes = 07,843 => Likely Democratic
OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 13 votes = 07,436 => Likely Democr
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 61 votes = 07,350 => Likely Democratic
NV-Sen: K Guinn (R-1936) vs H Reid (D-1939) ? after 45 votes = 07,222 => Likely Democratic
2 CT-Sen: J Rell (R-1946) vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 33 votes = 06,869 => Leans Democratic
MO-Sen: open R vs R Carnahan (D-1961) ? after 11 votes = 06,818 => Leans Democratic
CO-Sen: W Owens (R-1950) vs M Bennet (D-1964) ? after 31 votes = 06,344 => Leans Democr
2 OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs ? after 23 votes = 06,304 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs S Beshear (D-1944) ? af 20 votes = 05,917 => Leans Democrat
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 10 votes = 05,667 => Toss-Up
2 KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 36 votes = 05,602 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 36 votes = 05,463 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 40 votes = 05,375 => Toss-Up
2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,101 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 40 votes = 04,875 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 56 votes = 03,661 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
KS-Sen: open R vs M Parkinson (D-1957) ? after 17 votes = 01,176 => Safe Republican

*: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: For find any strong candidate more for senate

And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:

2009-2010 ELECTIONS: Senate. Republican Safe or Likely Seats?

AK-Sen: Incumbent L Murkovski (R-1957) win in 2004 with 49%.
SD-Sen: Incumbent J Thune (R-1961) win in 2004 with 51%.
ID-Sen: Incumbent M Crapo (R-1951) win in 2004 with 99%.
SC-Sen: Incumbent J DeMint (R-1951) win in 2004 with 54%.
AL-Sen: Incumbent R Shelby (R-1934) win in 2004 with 68%.
GA-Sen: Incumbent J Isakson (R-1944) win in 2004 with 58%.
UT-Sen: Incumbent R Bennett (R-1933) win in 2004 with 69%.

All the polls are open.

PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.

Originally posted to abgin on Sat Mar 07, 2009 at 09:14 PM PST.


CT-Sen: open R vs C Dodd (D-1944) ?

41%17 votes
14%6 votes
24%10 votes
14%6 votes
0%0 votes
2%1 votes
2%1 votes

| 41 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  It'll probably be either Schiff or Kudlow v. Dodd (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Either way, Dodd should win despite of his low approval numbers.  If Rell somehow decides to run, then possibly Rell might have a chance, otherwise expect this to stay democratic.

  •  NC-Sen: Burr vs. Roy Cooper (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pademocrat, newdem1960

    There's been polling done between the incumbent Republic Richard Burr and Democrat Attorney General Roy Cooper, with Cooper leading Burr 39 to 34. I would say a Burr vs. Cooper race would lean Democrat.

    Link: NC Senate 2010: Cooper leads Burr

    If Attorney General Roy Cooper decides to run for the Senate in 2010, you can put Richard Burr's name right to the top of the list of endangered incumbents nationally.

    Cooper leads Burr by five points in a hypothetical pairing. He also has a similarly high profile to Burr, with only 34% of voters in the state having no opinion about his job performance, compared to 37% who are ambivalent about Burr. It is quite unusual for a lower ranking state official to start out with similar name recognition to a US Senator.

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