The first option for this race in this serie of diaries was the option of have republican governor J Rell in the race. Habitually i try fin best against best in these diaries, that let a good reference.
But i think J Rell is thinking in run for reelection, for that we need a second option for make better the serie. Like we can see in the first diary about this race, J Rell have so low chance against incumbent senator C Dodd, but she have much more chance if run for reelection. For that, i think republicans in CT think more in win gubernatorial race. These are the links:
We see in these diaries like J Rell is the alone strong option for republicans in CT. Now they have only M Fedele Lieutenant governor, who run in same ticket with J Rell in statewide offices. They dont have no-one US House Representatives in this state, and the highest level challengers for C Dodd can be former representatives. One of they, R Simmons, sound for this race. He can be their best with J Rell, M Fedele and former representative C Shays.
Like i make for all states, i will remember the list of possible candidates for this race:
- Christopher John Dodd: CT 1944 Senator from Connecticut 81- . USHRep 75-81. Lost for President 08.
- Christopher S Murphy: NY CT 1973 USHRep 07- .
- James A Himes: PER CT 1966 USHRep 09- .
- Rosa L DeLauro: CT 1943 USHRep 91- .
- John B Larson: CT 1948 USHRep 99- . Lost for Governor 94.
- Joseph Courtney: CT 1953 USHRep 07- . Lost for Lieutenant Governor 98. Lost for House 02.
- Anthony John Moffett: MA CT 1944 USHRep 74-83. Lost for Senate 82. Lost for Governor 86. Lost for House 90.
- Samuel Gejdenson: GER CT 1948 USHRep 81-01. Lost for House 00.
- Bruce Andrew Morrison: NY CT 1944 USHRep 83-91. Lost for Governor 90.
- James H Maloney: MA CT 1948 USHRep 97-03. Lost for House 94 and 02.
- Kevin B Sullivan: CT 1949 Lieutenant Governor of CT 04-07.
- Susan Bysiewicz: CT 1961 CT Secretary of State 99- .
- Richard Blumenthal: NY CT 1946 CT Attorney General 90- .
- Nancy S Wyman: CT 19?? CT State Comptroller 95- .
- Denise Lynn Nappier: CT 19?? CT State Treasurer 99- .
I think no-one of the will run in primaries against C Dodd. In this moment i think is better they think in gubernatorial race against Rell (S Bysiewicz is running) or in 2012 senate race against Lieberman (R Blumenthal and N Lamont think in run). I like encourage specially S Bysiewicz because she dont have easy work and her work can be very important for democratic party let back the problems in Connecticut.
In a 0-10 scale, like this:
--- 00,000 ---
--- 01,429 ---
--- 02,857 ---
--- 04,286 ---
--- 05,714 ---
--- 07,142 ---
--- 08,571 ---
--- 10,000 ---
For see about senate races with the strongest democratic incumbents:
HI-Sen: Incumbent D Inouye (D-1924) win in 2004 76%. Biggest danger (low): L Lingle (R-1953).
NY-Sen: Incumbent C Schumer (D-1950) win in 2004 71%. Without danger.
VT-Sen: Incumbent P Leahy (D-1940) win in 2004 71%. Biggest danger (low): J Douglas (R-1951).
MD-Sen: Incumbent B Mikulski (D-1936) win in 2004 65%. Without danger.
OR-Sen: Incumbent R Wyden (D-1949) win in 2004 63%. Without danger.
WI-Sen: Incumbent R Feingold (D-1953) win in 2004 55%. Without danger.
WA-Sen: Incumbent P Murray (D-1950) win in 2004 55%. Without danger.
IN-Sen: Incumbent E Bayh (D-1955) win in 2004 62%. Biggest danger (low): M Daniels (R-1949).
AR-Sen: Incumbent B Lincoln (D-1960) win in 2004 56%. Biggest danger (low): M Huckabee (R-1955).
ND-Sen: Incumbent B Dorgan (D-1942) win in 2004 68%. Biggest danger (low): J Hoeven (R-1957).
CA-Sen: A Schwarzenegger (R-1947) vs B Boxer (D-1940) ? after 25 votes = 08,600 Safe Dem
IL-Sen: open R vs open D ? after 24 votes = 08,264 => Likely Democratic
CT-Sen: open R vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 32 votes = 08,073 => Likely Democratic
NY-Sen: G Pataki (R-1945) vs K Gillibrand (D-1966) ? after 66 votes = 07,854 => Likely Democr
DE-Sen: M Castle (R-1939) vs B Biden (D-1969) ? after 34 votes = 07,843 => Likely Democratic
OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs T Strickland (D-1941) ? af 13 votes = 07,436 => Likely Democr
PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs E Rendell (D-1944) ? af 61 votes = 07,350 => Likely Democratic
NV-Sen: K Guinn (R-1936) vs H Reid (D-1939) ? after 45 votes = 07,222 => Likely Democratic
2 CT-Sen: J Rell (R-1946) vs C Dodd (D-1944) ? after 33 votes = 06,869 => Leans Democratic
MO-Sen: open R vs R Carnahan (D-1961) ? after 11 votes = 06,818 => Leans Democratic
CO-Sen: W Owens (R-1950) vs M Bennet (D-1964) ? after 31 votes = 06,344 => Leans Democr
2 OH-Sen: R Portman (R-1955) vs ? after 23 votes = 06,304 => Leans Democratic
KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs S Beshear (D-1944) ? af 20 votes = 05,917 => Leans Democrat
NH-Sen: J Sununu (R-1964) vs P Hodes (D-1951) ? after 10 votes = 05,667 => Toss-Up
2 KY-Sen: J Bunning (R-1931) vs ? after 36 votes = 05,602 => Toss-Up
LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs J Breaux (D-1944) ? after 36 votes = 05,463 => Toss-Up
NC-Sen: R Burr (R-1955) vs ? after 40 votes = 05,375 => Toss-Up
2 PA-Sen: A Specter (R-1930) vs ? after 33 votes = 05,101 => Toss-Up
2 LA-Sen: D Vitter (R-1961) vs M Landrieu (D-1960) ? after 40 votes = 04,875 => Toss-Up
OK-Sen: T Coburn (R-1948) vs B Henry (D-1963) ? after 56 votes = 03,661 => Leans Republican
FL-Sen *: C Crist (R-1956) vs B Graham (D-1936) ? af 22 votes = 03,561 => Leans Republican
IA-Sen: C Grassley (R-1933) vs C Culver (D-1966) ? aft 25 votes = 03,400 => Leans Republican
AZ-Sen: J McCain (R-1936) vs ? after 48 votes = 02,396 => Likely Republican
KS-Sen: open R vs M Parkinson (D-1957) ? after 17 votes = 01,176 => Safe Republican
*: The diary for Florida is for gubernatorial race, but can be interesting include here the link to the poll because C Christ let open the door, and can run for senate in 2010.
And for see about other difficult races for democratics like:
AK-Sen: Incumbent L Murkovski (R-1957) win in 2004 with 49%.
SD-Sen: Incumbent J Thune (R-1961) win in 2004 with 51%.
ID-Sen: Incumbent M Crapo (R-1951) win in 2004 with 99%.
SC-Sen: Incumbent J DeMint (R-1951) win in 2004 with 54%.
AL-Sen: Incumbent R Shelby (R-1934) win in 2004 with 68%.
GA-Sen: Incumbent J Isakson (R-1944) win in 2004 with 58%.
UT-Sen: Incumbent R Bennett (R-1933) win in 2004 with 69%.
All the polls are open.
PS: This diary will be updated when the number of votes up, and when the serie of diaries about senate end.