In January, soon after President Bush announced plans to return to space, you saw mentionns in the press of the 'Trillion dollar' price tag.
Which was odd .. where did that number come from? It wasn't published by NASA or anyone who actualally knows what is going on.
Dwayne Day tracked down the source of the figure. Turns out the AP writer did his sums wrong. See below for links.
Argue against the space program, we need honest debate. But to argue from incomplete or erroneous figures is disingenous at best.
Whispers in the echo chamber
Why the media says the space plan costs a trillion dollars
by Dwayne A. Day
Monday, March 22, 2004
http://www.thespacereview.com/article/119/1
Some excerpts
"I was able to contact Recer on March 4 and ask him where he had gotten the $1 trillion cost estimate for a human mission to Mars. Recer stated that he had gotten the information from "industry sources and people I talked to." He said that none of the information was provided by government sources. He said that his sources told him that in 1989 Congress--not NASA--had produced an estimate of $400-$500 billion for a mission to Mars as proposed by President George H.W. Bush. Recer had adjusted for inflation, which would have produced a range of $640-$800 billion. He had then rounded up by at least $200 billion to produce the estimate of "nearly $1 trillion.""
and:
"The January 8 Recer article in the Associated Press proved to have a major impact on later press reporting. Recer's story was widely distributed, appearing in dozens of newspapers across the country, such as the Fort Wayne News-Sentinel. Over the next several weeks, numerous articles by other reporters quoted the $1 trillion figure, usually for a human mission to Mars. Some of them attributed the number to the Associated Press and some did not, but nearly all had clearly gotten the number from Recer's article. Many of them stated that a single Mars expedition alone would cost $1 trillion, whereas others later stated that this was the overall cost estimate for the entire space exploration plan."
and:
"Easterbrook makes no secret of his anti-spaceflight opinions and is often critical of NASA's cost estimates. Easterbrook explained how he reached the $1 trillion figure on his own. Although he is critical of NASA cost estimates, he started with the 1989 estimate of $400 billion for the Space Exploration Initiative. However, Easterbrook erroneously assumed that this $400 billion was for a Mars mission alone, not for both the Moon and Mars missions. He then adjusted it for inflation, making it $600 billion. "Add in a Moon base and the price zooms toward $1 trillion!" he exclaimed. But only five paragraphs earlier Easterbrook had stated that a Moon base would cost $200 billion, which he determined by taking what he claimed to be the cost of the International Space Station--$100 billion--and doubling it to $200 billion. By explaining his math, Easterbrook also explained his mistakes. In effect, he counted the Moon base twice without realizing it. But even when accounting for th!
is mistake, it is difficult to understand how $600 billion plus $200 billion equals $1 trillion. Few reputable economists regularly round off by $200 billion increments."