While I have been active as a volunteer and Delegate in the campaign to defeat (all but 1B among) the Propositions that, with the exception of 1F, went down in defeat tonight, I swear that it was not until I read the election results that I had this epiphany:
Governor Schwarzenegger should resign, as soon as possible.
I don't say this because he has done a bad job, although in my opinion he has. Even people who admire him should want him to resign, for reasons I'll explain below.
I don't even say this because he, more than anyone, is associated with (and the prime sponsor of) the proposition package that went down to defeat.
I say this for one reason only: He is no longer the man for the job, if he ever was. The man who would replace him, Lt. Governor John Garamendi, is. Arnold should hand over the reins of power and get out of the way.
The prospective last 19 months of a Schwarzenegger Administration will be a horror show of gridlock and prospective state bankruptcy. With the 2/3 requirements for raising taxes and passing a budget still in force, the only ways to balance the budget will be:
* raising fees (which Arnold doesn't want to do)
* selling off capital assets (which he has threatened to do but most people think is nutty)
* cutting expenditures in areas like Medicaid where the Obama Administration (holding the stimulus funds leash) and/or Democrats won't let him cut
* cutting expenditures in areas where he won't want to cut (like cutting prisons and police, the former probably accompanied by releasing a whole lot of non-violent offenders)
* implementing creative taxation solutions that he won't want to accept (like removing Prop 13 protection from a lot of commercial property or implementing an oil extraction tax)
* seeking innovative new income streams (such as from marijuana legalization and taxation)
* getting federal loan guarantees (which Obama will hesitate to give him, given state gridlock)
* (no doubt I'm forgetting something; mention it in comments and I'll add it here)
There's virtually no overlap between what can be done and what Arnold wants to do. His own party -- the ingrates -- just kicked him in the teeth on these ballot measures and some of them want to recall him. Out of pure self-interest, he should view this as a no-confidence vote and dump the problem on Garamendi's lap. His popularity is only going to go down from here, and he owes his party absolutely nothing.
Why is Garamendi the better man for the job right now? For one thing, if he's running in CA-10, he can probably do some unpopular-but-necessary things and still win. For another thing -- working with Democratic legislators -- he can actually accomplish something and get a budget enacted, even if it's not what Arnold wants. Go down the list:
* He is better situated to raise fees to address the crisis as need be -- because he'd be more willing.
* He is better situated to sell off capital assets if it truly became necessary, because he's unsullied.
* He is better situated to cut social services if really necessary because people -- including Obama -- knows that he would not want to do so; he has no interest in balancing the budget on the backs of the poor, sick, young, and elderly.
* He is better situated to cut police/prison programs because he's less beholden to them, and probably more willing -- as a new broom sweeping clean -- to release non-violent offenders.
* He would probably be more open to a split roll and/or oil extraction tax.
* He might be more able to consider new income streams, not having to worry about the Republican base.
* He would probably be better able to obtain loan guarantees, because Obama could trust him and his ability to cooperate with the Democratic legislature.
I suspect that Garamendi may not be so hot on the idea of stepping into the Governorship at this moment; if that was so, he could appoint another Lieutenant Governor who he thinks would do a good job and then resign himself to run in CA-10. He would probably have to assure Democrats who have their eyes on the Governor's Mansion that he didn't plan to run for re-election -- and, frankly, he'd have a hard time winning, given the rotten situation he'd face in office -- for them to be happy about this, but frankly it's no one's business but Arnold's (and, unless he too wants to resign, Garamendi's.)
We as a state cannot afford the 19 months that Gov. Schwarzenegger has in store for us. It is in his hands to create a workable government -- by walking away.
How do we get him to do this?
(1) Spread the meme: he needs to resign
(2) Don't bend an inch on anything important. Make him unhappy to be in office.
(3) Maybe Obama can offer him a sweetener of some sort. He's already made one Republican Governor an Ambassador; maybe Austria could use a new U.S. Ambassador.
One GOP Congressman [http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/capitolalertlatest/021628.html already called upon Arbold to resign a month ago -- over water policy -- so it's not like the subject hasn't been breached. The idea now is to do this not in a way that scores cheap political points, but in a way that is dispassionate, objective, and practical.
No matter how much one has liked him or hated him, with the failure of these propositions he is not now the man for the job. For the good of the state, he has to fall on his sword. It's his only chance not to further stain his legacy. And, given the two people -- himself and Garamendi -- who can currently take the reins of government, he has to realize that his being Governor means more heartache and no budget, while Garamendi's being Governor gives the state a fighting chance.