Keep in mind Al Gore who is from the South did not carry a single Southern state in 2000.* The best strategy for Dean is to try to solidify the Upper Midwest "swing states" (MN, IA, WI and MI) and hold the Northeast and West Coast. By holding the Gore 2000 states he needs merely to add West Virginia and Nevada for victory...I would pump a ton of money into Nevada and select Rockefellar as my running mate or put tons of money in West Virginia and pick a Southwesterner like Richardson for VP.....
The Geographical Playing Field: Which States Matter?
The magic number is 270 electoral votes. A winning electoral strategy shouldn't think in terms of popular votes or different interest groups; it
should concentrate on winning the states necessary to reach 270. Voting behavior in many states is utterly predictable. For example it is as
inevitable as gravity that the Republican candidate will carry Utah and that the Democrat will carry the District of Columbia. An honest state-by-state calculus is essential to victory.
The Democrats should more or less concede 190 electoral votes in 22 states that they
cannot win. (Idaho, Alaska, Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and Indiana)
On the positive side, the Democrats can all but take the following 15 states and the District of Columbia (190 electoral votes) for granted (Vermont, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, Washington, Oregon, California, Illinois and Hawaii), at least if the candidate is at all competitive.
Among the states Gore carried in 2000, the six most difficult states for the Democrats to hold in 2004 will be Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico, Minnesota and Wisconsin. In order to win, the Democrats will need all of these electoral votes for a total of 260 (Gore had 267 with these states prior to redistricting).
This puts the Democrats just 10 votes shy of an electoral majority. Those ten votes must come from some combination of the following Bush 2000 states: Florida, Arizona, Ohio, Missouri, Arkansas, Nevada, West Virginia, and New Hampshire. Arizona, Ohio, Missouri and Arkansas will be very difficult. Thus the easiest path to victory will be to either carry Florida (a tall order with the electoral shenanigans likely to take place down there) or the trifecta of Nevada, West Virginia and New Hampshire (actually NV and WV will be sufficient without NH but NH is the easiest of the three to carry especially if Dean is teh nominee and will probably fall to the Democrats if they carry the other two anyway).
The Democrats task is manageable but there is little margin for error. If they lose Nevada by 100 votes, for example, the race could end up tied
269-269 and the Republican House of Representatives would then re-appoint George W. Bush.
To recap: the election will be decided in these ten states- Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Mexico, Minnesota,Wisconsin (must wins for the Democrats) and New Hampshire, Nevada, West Virginia and Florida (the Democrats must win
either Florida or win Nevada and West Virginia).
Which states the Democrats should concentrate on depends on the nominee (for example if it is Howard Dean the best chance is to hold the Gore states and try to take Nevada and West Virginia).
How to Run The Democratic Campaign
1. Don't mimic Bush-if people want to vote for Bush they will vote for him.
It's that simple.
2. Don't play nice- Since the days of Lee Atwater the Republicans have always been down and dirty and pulled out all the stops to get their man
elected. Karl Rove makes Lee Atwater look like a choir boy. Fight fire with fire...when Rove attacks, don't be defensive, don't straddle the fence...attack back! Better yet, attack first and go for the throat! The future of America and much of the world is at stake. The timid need not apply. In 2002 Seantors Jean Carnahan (MO) and Max Cleland (GA) ran to the center, said good things about the President and tried to be good little half-Republicans...they got crushed on election day.
3. Don't run to the center, run with the people-The DLC fallacy is that running to the center wins elections. The truth is save for a few college professors, bloggers and activists on the left and a few talk-radio junkies and born again Christians on the right, most Americans don't think in terms of right or left or have a coherent political ideology. The important thing is to run as a populist, a regular guy who people look
up to as a fellow community member regardless of ideology. The bottom line is the swing voters who decide an election seldom know much about the
candidates positions on the issues--it is far more important how thecandidate looks and whether he seems like one of them. It worked for Reagan,
Clinton and Dubya and it is the reason Dukakis, Gore and Bob Dole lost.
Swing voters will choose the person they can identify with. Also the TV ads are very important---these soundbites will define the average voter's perception of the candidate's ideology more than anything else.
- Run With the Party's Strengths- Polls show that most Americanstrust the Democrats more than the Republicans on the environment, energy, the economy, education, and health care but they trust the Republicans more on national defense. Talk about domestic issues. Don't try to wrap yourself in a bigger flag than George Dubya Bush and don't try to land any planes or ride in any tanks. Let Bush take the patriotism angle as far as it will take him. If the occupation in Iraq goes poorly, don't gloat. Let the media badger the president while you keep talking about the economy and the environment, since they are winning issues. If people ask about the war, say Bush lied about weapons of mass destruction and put our soldiers in harms way, but make sure to have an answer of what should have been done differently.
- Offer a Vision, and be Optimistic- It isn't enough to attack the President. The candidate must also offer optimism that plays on Americans'
sense of exceptionalism while promising renewal and better things to come if he is elected. It worked for Clinton and Reagan and it can work for Dean.
6. Embrace Pop Culture - Clinton clobbered Bush I and Dole in the MTV crowd vote, because he was hip and because he played the saxophone on Saturday
Night live. The super stiff Al Gore was married to PMRC wanna-be censor Tipper and he fell 14 points below Clinton's 1996 numbers with the MTV crowd. He lost the 2000 election because 20 and 30-something men would rather drink a beer with Dubya than with the tragically uncool Al Gore. It
is the reason he lost the election...the reason nobody talks about.
Clinton/Dubya=hip. Dole/Gore=not hip. Dean is hip, Gephardt and Kerry are not hip. Lieberman is quite unhip.
7. Follow the Geography to Victory- For Dean, the road to DC runs through Nevada and West Virginia and all the states Gore carried (plus add New
Hampshire's four for 274 Electoral Votes). If he is nominated, Dean's campaign needs to focus heavy on Nevada, West Virginia and the swing states
like New Mexico, Pennsylvania etc. mentioned earlier. His moderate "let the state's decide" position on gun control makes him the only Democratic candidate who can carry Nevada, and one of the few who can carry West Virginia or New Hampshire. One way to help secure these states is by strategically selecting the right running mate.
Choosing a Running Mate
As mentioned earlier, the election, if it is close, will be decided in ten states--MI, PA, IA, NM, MN, WI, NV, WV, NH and FL. It is imperative that Dean (or whoever the nominee is) chooses his VP strategically from one of these states. Some intriguing possibilities:
From MI- Senator Debbie Stabenow or Senator Carl Levin
From PA- Governor Ed Rendell
From IA- Senator Tom Harkin
From NM- Governor Bill Richardson, Senator Jeff Bingaman
From NV- Senator Harry Reid
From WV-Senator Jay Rockefeller
From NH- Former governor Jeanne Shaheen
From FL- Senator Bob Graham or Senator Bill Nelson
Since Nevada and West Virginia are the lynchpin, and Pennsylvania is a big prize that might be hard to hold, the best choices might be Rockefeller (WV), Richardson (NM) or Rendell (PA)
Also worth considering are Clark (AR) and either Nelson or Graham (FL)
What About the Greens ?
The Greens will be hard-pressed to match the
2.7 % of the vote they garnered in 2000. If Dean is the Democratic nominee I wouldn't be surprised if the Green ticket falls below 1% of the national
total, if they run a candidate. Not likely to be a significant factor.