I'm sure this has been diaried before, but I was busy at the time, and it's always a good time for those so inclined to discuss it. So, if you don't want to discuss the frontrunners, find another diary!
Several days ago, Time Magazine's The Page compiled a list of lists of who was being talked up as Souter's replacement. For those who missed it:
WashPost's List
Judge Sonia Sotomayor
Judge Diane Wood
Judge Kim McLane Wardlaw
Solicitor General Elena Kagan
Georgia Supreme Court Chief Justice Leah Ward Sears
Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm
Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick
Judge Ruben Castillo
Kathleen Sullivan
Harold Hongju Koh
NYT's Supreme Court List
Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm
Washington Gov. Christine Gregoire
Solicitor General Elena Kagan
Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick
Judge Sonia Sotomayor
Former Stanford Law Dean Kathleen M. Sullivan
Judge Kim McLane Wardlaw
Judge Diane Pamela Wood
WSJ's Supreme Court List
Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm
Solicitor General Elena Kagan
Yale Law Dean Harold Hongju Koh
Judge Kim McLane Wardlaw
Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick
Judge Johnnie Rawlinson
Judge Sonia Sotomayor
Former Stanford Law Dean Kathleen M. Sullivan
Georgia Supreme Court Chief Justice Leah Ward Sears
Reuters' Supreme Court List
Sonia Sotomayor.
Elena Kagan.
Diane Wood.
Jennifer Granholm.
Deval Patrick.
Kathleen Sullivan.
Leah Ward Sears.
Cass Sunstein.
AP's Supreme Court List
Sonia Sotomayor of the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
Kim McLane Wardlaw of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
Leah Ward Sears, chief justice of the Georgia Supreme Court.
Sandra Lea Lynch, chief judge of the 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
Diane Pamela Wood of the 7th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.
Elena Kagan, U.S. Solicitor General.
Johnnie B. Rawlinson of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals
Ruben Castillo of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois.
Merrick B. Garland of the U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit.
M. Margaret McKeown of the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals
Pamela S. Karlan, law professor at Stanford University
Harold Hongju Koh, dean of the Yale University Law School
Kathleen Sullivan, former dean of Stanford Law School.
Cass Sunstein, University of Chicago law professor.
Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick.
Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm.
LA Times' Supreme Court List
Elena Kagan, United States solicitor general
Diane Wood, Judge, U.S. 7th Circuit Court of Appeals in Chicago
Sonia Sotomayor, Judge, U.S. 2nd Circuit Court of Appeals in New York
Jennifer Granholm, Governor of Michigan
Chris Gregoire, Governor of Washington
Deval Patrick, Governor of Massachusetts
Looking at the top candidates, their ages, Intrade last trade price to nearest penny, and who picked them:
Granholm (50, 08): 6 of 6
Kagan (49, 24): 6 of 6
Sotomayor (54, 25): 6 of 6
Patrick (52, 05): 5 of 6 (all but AP's huge list)
Sullivan (53, 04): 5 of 6 (all but LAT's short list)
Wood (58, 11): 5 of 6 (all but WSJ)
Sears (53, 05): 4 of 6 (all but NYT and LAT)
Wardlaw (54, 20): 4 of 6 (all but Reuters and LAT)
Koh (54, n/a): 3 of 6
Castillo (54, 05): 2 of 6
Gregoire (62, n/a): 2 of 6
Rawlinson (56, n/a): 2 of 6
Sunstein (54, 05): 2 of 6
Garland (56, 05): 1 of 6
Karlan (50, 05): 1 of 6 (but apparently now rising)
McKeown (58 next week, n/a): 1 of 6
I just wanted to give my impressions and allow you to weigh in with yours.
First, of those named on every list:
Kagan is a clear standout: pending information on health records, I'd lean her way.
Sotomayor is a bit less progressive but would be in line with the current coalition; a good pick.
Granholm: I don't know how she'd vote on the Court -- presumably liberal, but how much so -- or why she's considered a constitutional scholar.
For the 5/6 people:
Patrick: see Granholm. I like him, but I'm not sure what makes him SCOTUS material.
Sullivan would be a strong pick, but I don't see why her over Kagan.
Wood would be a very strong pick; wonderful judge; it'd be worth giving up a few years in expected time on the bench for someone this good.
For 4/6 people:
Sears: I don't know her but she seems damn impressive.
Wardlaw seems to be one of the favorites. She would be a poor choice. I am a former Ninth Circuit clerk, so I don't want to say too much more, but I think reading her opinions would tell progressives all they need to know. I rank her well below Sotomayor.
For the rest:
Koh would be a great choice, though perhaps for a subsequent pick.
Castillo has a great reputation. I hope that Obama interviews him; if he likes him, there's less pressure to choose Sotomayor (unless he's really convinced.)
Gregoire is too old and delivers too little.
Rawlinson is the worst possible pick off this list by several furlongs. Yes, she is Black and female and nominally a Democrat, but read her opinions and see whether you see the Clarence Thomas-like aura. This would be worth fighting.
Sunstein is the worst likely pick. I've been working on a diary (or a series) on Sunstein: let's just say that his views on tort law are bad and he is far too self-impressed with his cockeyed analyses from time to time. He'd end up being another late-career Felix Frankfurter, pushing judicial minimalism to hobble the court. I'd fight his appointment.
Garland: Great reputation. Along with his benchmate David Tatel and some Ninth Circuit judges like Sidney Thomas and Michael Daly Hawkins, would be among the best white males to choose.
Karlan: Very strong choice; I place her, with Wood, just below Kagan.
McKeown: Another excellent choice from the Ninth Circuit. If she and Wood were on the opposite circuits, she'd be the one getting the buzz.
I'm going to toss one more name into the mix: Cornell (and former Columbia) Professor Michael Dorf. If Obama has multiple choices, Dorf would be a good pick for one of them. He's a brilliant Constitutional scholar (Laurence Tribe's co-author, in fact), a great popularizer of the Constitution (through his Findlaw column, which is some of the best writing for a lay audience out there, a legal blogger, and (if I calculate his age correctly) only about 46 or 47 years old. Most importantly, he is a former Kennedy clerk -- and was his clerk during the term when Kennedy signed onto the joint opinion with Souter and O'Connor in Casey to protect abortion rights. If we want someone on the Court who can court Kennedy's vote, Dorf would probably be as good as we could find. He's reliably progressive but completely open to and understanding of contrary viewpoints. If Obama appoints three people during his first term, he'd be a good third one.
OK, that's my assessment; let's hear yours!