I don't usually do I/P here. I wandered into a provocatively-titled diary yesterday dealing with the murder of a Jewish student at Wesleyan that (depending on who you read) either did or did not have to do with anti-Semitism alone, or I/P issues, or ... or ... or ... and it made me remember why I don't usually wade into those waters.
But, just now, I went onto TPM and say what Josh assured me was a "must read column" on U.S.-Israeli policy by M. J. Rosenberg, and so I read it -- and now I would like both to highlight it and see whether it provides for any common ground at all. Because I am a uniter, not a divider.
I'd love to repost the whole thing, but that's not quite legal. Instead I've done something that may be even better. I've broken the article down into numbered components so that people can agree or disagree with the factual assertions and expressions of opinion made there. Let's see how much we really disagree. Maybe less than we think?
Obama vs. Netanyahu: Who Wins?
By M.J. Rosenberg - May 8, 2009, 10:45AM
Note that "Fact:" means "purported fact" -- I am not endorsing all such assertions here and one may fairly disagree within the rules of discourse.
(1) Metafact: it is worth discussing whether Obama would win in a "'knock down, drag out' fight with the Israeli government (and lobby) over the peace process."
(2) Fact: Such a fight is widely predicted.
(3) Fact: Such a fight is possible.
(4) Fact: Such a fight is more likely after the AIPAC conference.
(5) Fact: Biden clearly said that the administration will push hard for a Palestinian state.
(6) Fact: Netanyahu has refused to talk about a Pelestinian state.
(7) Fact: Israeli media foresees such a conflict.
(8) Fact: Israeli media sees Obama as likely prevailing.
(9) Fact: Obama is committed to the two-state solution.
(10) Fact: Obama will oppose that the Israeli government not block it.
(11) Fact: Obama will oppose settlements in occupied territory.
(12) Fact: Netanyahu intends to expand settlements.
(13) Fact: Obama wants to allows more trade into Gaza.
(14) Fact: Obama wants to remove obstacles to Palestinian freedom of movement (such as checkpoints.)
(15) Fact: Obama is considering some dealings with Hamas.
(16) Fact: Clinton has noted that we deal with Hizbollah.
(17) Fact: Noting this makes dealing with Hamas more conceivable.
(18) Fact: NSA James Jones says that Obama will not wait for Israelis and Palestinians to negotiate a solution.
(19) Fact: Jones says that the U.S. is most successful when directly involved.
(20) Fact: At the AIPAC conference, Perez pushed for the U.S. to take a hard line on Iran.
(21) Fact: Peres is as hawkish as Netanyahu on Iran.
(22) Fact: Peres expressed low enthusiasm but not opposition to Obama's overtures to Iran.
(23) Fact: Israel wants a firm expieation date to any diplomatic initiative with Iran.
(24) Fact: At the expiration of that date, Israel asserts the right to take measures it sees fit.
(25) Fact: Israel and the U.S. differ greatly on many key issues.
(26) Opinion: A clash between the governments is not inevitable.
(27) Opinion: "no Israeli government can successfully oppose a popular American president who sets out to pursue Arab-Israeli peace."
(28) Fact: The Israeli government didn't like Carter's push for a peace treat with Egypt.
(29) Fact: Pro-Israeli lobbyists in the U.S. didn't like it either.
(30) Fact: Carter still got his deal.
(31) Fact: Reagan's plan in 1982 turned out similarly.
(32) Fact: Reagan's recognition of the PLO in 1988 turned out similarly.
(33) Fact: Neither of Reagan's initiatives was even successfully challenged.
(34) Fact: The "Israeli Lobby" (by which I assume he means AIPAC and a few similar groups) hates confronting a popular American President.
(35) Fact: When the Israeli Lobby has challenged Presidents, it has lost.
(36) Fact: It didn't block Reagan's sale of AWACS for Saudi Arabia.
(37) Fact: It didn't block Poppy Bush's withholding loan guarantees to protest Israeli settlement policies.
(38) Fact: The latter action led to the collapse of the Shamir government.
(39) Fact: Shamir was brought down, not by Bush but by domestic forces.
(40) Fact: Israelis didn't want to fight "against Israel's only significant ally and weapons supplier."
(41) Opinion: Israeli's supporters don't want to jeopardize "Israel's lifeline" (in AIPAC's founder, IL Kenen's words) in order to retain West Bank settlements.
(42) Opinion: In a staredown, Israel will blink before Obama does.
(43) Opinion: This is more likely because giving up the West Bank doesn't sacrifice a vital interest of Israel.
(44) Opinion: Such a peace effort would advance Israeli and American security.
(45) Opinion: American Jews will rally behind Obama if he pushes a peace plan.
(46) Fact: American Jews care about Israel's security.
(47) Fact: American Jews believe that maintaining the occupation undermines Israel's long-term survival.
(48) Fact: Many pro-Israel figures "believe that Israel can maintain the occupation and remain a democratic Jewish state."
(49) Opinion: It can't.
(50) Fact: Territories controlled by Israel are already 51% non-Jewish.
(51) Fact: Annexing the Occupied Territories would mean that the voting populace would eliminate Israel's Jewish nature.
(52) Fact: Maintaining the territories without allowing residents a vote would create untenable problems.
(53) Opinion -- separated out for separate treatment: Denying Arabs the vote would create a de facto "apartheid state."
(54) Fact: An alternative is a two-state solution.
(55) Opinion: The alternative is a two-state solution.
(56) Fact: Territories not controlled by Israel pre-1967 include the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem.
(57) Opinion: Such a state would include the West Bank, Gaza, and East Jerusalem.
(58) Fact: A two-state solution would mean Israel becoming an overwhelmingly Jewish state, as it was before 1967.
(59) Fact: However, Israel would now have peace treaties with the Palestinians, Egyptians, and Jordanians.
(60) Opinion: Israel would have ironclad peace treaties with the Palestinians, Egyptians, and Jordanians.
(61) Opinion: Israel would finally have peace and security in a Jewish country.
(62) Fact: Pre-1967 Israel was a good place to live.
(63) Fact: Under occupation, Israel has been a worse place to live.
(64) Fact: American Jews are overwhelmingly Democratic.
(65) Opinion: American Jews will overwhelmingly back Obama if he pushes hard for for Middle East peace.
(66) Fact: American Jews are the most pro-Obama White group.
(67) Fact: 78% of Jews voted for Obama.
(68) Opinion: They will not oppose Obama's efforts to advance peace.
(69) Fact: American Jews largely supported Obama due to his opposing the Iraq war and favoring diplomacy with Iran.
(70) Opinion: The pro-Israel lobby won't oppose Obama because it doesn't want to lose.
(71) Opinion: The pro-Israel lobby also won't oppose Obama because it doesn't want to lose access to Congressional power.
(72) Opinion: By far most Democratic members of Congress will support Obama in these efforts.
(73) Opinion: Obama has the best chance in years past or present to achieve a two-state solution.
(74) Opinion: If it doesn't happen now it will never happen.
(75) Opinion: If it never happens, there will ultimately be a single state with a non-Jewish identity.