I usually post in the AM hours on weekdays, and sometimes late on weekends. Here's my Monday 6/15 post with a little update.
Since the election blowup there has been a great deal of news and various reports from a number of sources and directions. What I am going to attempt to do here is analyze what has happened, what might be happening and what may happen in the near future. There are a couple of things I want to advance at the outset. 1) I think the reported election results are a fraud and I suspect that the votes were not really counted. 2) Just because I think there was fraud does not mean that I think Mousavi won, it just means we do not really know. 3) This situation highlights what will be my main point going forward. Specifically, we should have re-established diplomatic relations with Iran a long time ago. Part of the reason this is such a mess for us, is because we don't have any clear idea of what is going on over there, and we are not sure of what many of the facts are, let alone what they might mean with any certainty.
The power structure of the Iranian government contains checks and balances, but also concentrates power in a few hands. It is not a dictatorship; I would describe it as a competitive oligarchy with unequal and shifting shares of power. Ayatollah Khamenei is the Supreme Leader, and he does exercise a great deal of influence, but his authority is not absolute. He is appointed by the Assembly of Experts, and they are an elected body. Hashemi Rafsanjani is the most influential, or powerful among the Assembly of Experts and he has resigned his post on the Expediency Council in protest on Saturday, but remains on the Assembly of Experts. He is reported to be in Qom (the Religious Center of Iran just south of Tehran), and there is speculation that he may be trying to undermine Khamenei's position among more moderate clerics. Here's a historical reference for these two men: think of Khamenei as Robespierre and Rafsanjani as Danton from the French Revolution. Khamenei is more of an ideologue and a purist who does not hesitate to exercise brutal authority, while Rafsanjani is an indulgent who has enriched himself and his family through his access to power. Unlike the French Revolution, this is 30 years later, and Rafsanjani has managed to keep his head, so far. To many Iranians, this election is also about these two men. Much of Ahmadinejad's support comes from revulsion to Rafsanjani. It was Rafsanjani who lost to Ahmadinejad in the runoff election of '05, and he lost resoundingly. This is why in much of Ahmadinjad's debate with Mousavi, he attacked Rafsanjani; he was trying to make this election about Rafsanjani and not Mousavi. We don't really know the results, this might have worked. Moreover, Rafsanjani's support for Mousavi may not be a good thing. He has power, but he is corrupt--so where does it go from there? What will Mousavi owe Rafsanjani if he successfully gets Khamenei voted out? (I am not saying that I think that is likely, I am just working through a hypothetical.) I am a strong Mousavi supporter, as my previous diaries clearly show. I watch for what he says and does in the next few days. He is no fool and he can take care of himself.
Another figure I am watching is Mohsen Makhmalbaf. He is an internationally acclaimed film director, whose film Kandahar was even viewed by W in the White House. He is a man who has worked tirelessly in Afghanistan on behalf of Afghani children. He has put his money where he mouth is and arranged to bring thousands of Afghani children to Iran to be able to go to school. His work reflects the complexity of Iran as a culture and society. He reveals a proud non-Western nation capable of charting their own course. I would also recommend Gabbeh to anyone not familiar with his work. He reported on behalf of Mousavi the story that Mousavi was contacted by an election official and told he had won, but that they should avoid saying anything until Saturday. Mousavi smelled a rat and announced immediately he had won. That was the point on Friday (Around 3:15 EDT), where I was happy, but worried. The polls were not even closed, and yet Mousavi made this announcement. Again, Mousavi is a serious and calm man--I believed he must have had his reasons. The unfolding events seemed to indicate that something was very wrong. SO, as I wrote on Saturday night, until I hear Mousavi's public and unrestrained statements on the subject, I wait to make final judgments.
At this point there is no way to know for certain what happened on Friday. Moreover, Khamenei's "Probe" will be a "Blue-Ribbon" Committee that will be "shocked, shocked to find gambling going on" as they are presented with their winnings. (I watched Casablanca late Friday night to escape.) Any action taken by Rafsanjani, however, will be suspect and come with strings attached. It is vital to keep in mind, that we view Ahmadinejad through the lens of foreign policy, and that distorts our vision. He has done a great deal for the poor and the remote villages of Iran, and much of the underclasses. Those people do not like Rafsanjani or what he represents, and they are correct in their assessment of him. If nothing else, this election indicates deep divisions in a country with a young government(30 years)--the situation is explosive. Tehran is around 12% of the country, but just as we are pretty ticked off at Wall Street right now and subsequently New York, many Iranians feel similarly about elites in Tehran. This is the reason that rioting in Tehran, North Tehran in particular, brutal as the suppression may be, does not necessarily reflect the mood of the country as a whole. The truth is, we are not really in a position to accurately gauge the meaning of much of what we are seeing.
If the United States had re-established diplomatic relations, we would have an embassy in Tehran and consulates in major cities around the country. I am not taking about spying here. I am talking about the regular activities and reports written by the diplomatic corps about what is going on. Many native speakers recording the attitudes of people and groups, and the political orientation of classes and other enclaves throughout the country. We don't have any of that, so our State Department is virtually flying blind in this incredibly important and volatile situation. Here are just a few of the questions we need accurate information on: 1) How many clerics appear to support Khamenei? 2) Is there division within the Revolutionary Guard on how to proceed? 3) Where do the regular Armed Forces stand? 4) What about the Basijis? Are they mostly unemployed kids, or do they really reflect the ideology of the Revolutionary Guard? and on on on... We need information and we need it to be accurate, and we need it now. One of my favorite Generals, Joseph Stilwell, who served in China during WW II, used to say, "Good news does not hurt me; I need to know the bad news yesterday." Sure we can find speculation about the answers to those questions on the Internet, but we need careful, thoughtful and informed analysis--not knee-jerk reactions.
No matter how things turn out--Iran is going to be a divided country in the near future. If Ahmadinejad and Khamenei prevail, they will have little choice but to become more dictatorial than ever. The suppression will not be pretty. If Rafsanjani prevails and gets Khamenei reversed or unseated, Mousavi ruling over a diverse nation with corrupt officials like Rafsanjani has major liabilities as well. The US needs to consider options carefully going forward. Regardless of the results, I think sanctions should be dropped. We need to stop talking about "Carrots and Sticks" as if our international adversaries are donkeys for us to ride. We need to stop punitive policies period. Sanctions tend to re-enforce the governments we do not like and punish the poorest in those countries. The people of Iraq suffered throughout the 90s; Saddam Hussein and his friends did not. Now at the same time we need to make our positions clear, and those positions need to be reasonable. We can stick to reasonable positions and if we can couple that with policies that don't put down entire nations we might find we make a bit of progress instead. I don't think anyone around here would say that our foreign policy of the last 30 years has been a raging success. (Before you start, don't give me any of that "We won the Cold War" stuff, The Soviet Union mostly collapsed on its own.) It's time to really try something new.
UPDATE: Today Ayatollah Montazeri released the following letter. If this letter proves valid (I have only seen it posted a few places, so I still have a few doubts about its authenticity. I know it was Andrew Sullivan's page, but that does not make it 100%. In any case, Here it is:
In the name of God
People of Iran
These last days, we have witnessed the lively efforts of you brothers and sisters, old and young alike, from any social category, for the 10th presidential elections.
Our youth, hoping to see their rightful will fulfilled, came on the scene and waited patiently. This was the greatest occasion for the government’s officials to bond with their people.
But unfortunately, they used it in the worst way possible. Declaring results that no one in their right mind can believe, and despite all the evidence of crafted results, and to counter people protestations, in front of the eyes of the same nation who carried the weight of a revolution and 8 years of war, in front of the eyes of local and foreign reporters, attacked the children of the people with astonishing violence. And now they are attempting a purge, arresting intellectuals, political opponents and Scientifics.
Now, based on my religious duties, I will remind you :
1- A legitimate state must respect all points of view. It may not oppress all critical views. I fear that this lead to the lost of people’s faith in Islam.
2- Given the current circumstances, I expect the government to take all measures to restore people’s confidence. Otherwise, as I have already said, a government not respecting people’s vote has no religious or political legitimacy.
3- I invite everyone, specially the youth, to continue reclaiming their dues in calm, and not let those who want to associate this movement with chaos succeed.
4- I ask the police and army personals not to "sell their religion", and beware that receiving orders will not excuse them before god. Recognize the protesting youth as your children. Today censor and cutting telecommunication lines can not hide the truth.
I pray for the greatness of the Iranian people.
Ayatollah Montazeri was supposed to replace Khomenei as supreme leader, but Khamenei did instead. Something to think about, especially for those who think the clerics in Iran are monolithic.