NASA needs to specifically articulate its long term goals for manned space flight to the American people! We need to know where we're going, why we're going, and how much its going to cost to get there. And we also need to know what kind of a space transportation and habitat infrastructure is going to be required in order to achieve those goals.
The current NASA budget is less than $20 billion dollars annually while at the height of the Apollo Moon program, it was approximately $34 billion (adjusted for inflation). A $30 billion dollar annual NASA budget, IMO, can only be justified if the primary goal is to establish a permanent and continuously growing human presence off the surface of the Earth. In the long term, the US space program should not be designed solely for an elite few astronauts but to give greater access to the New Frontier for private industry and all other Americans.
First, NASA needs to establish a permanently manned and continuously growing facility on the Moon. Forget about going to Mars if we can't establish a growing community of humans on the lunar surface. Even if it turns out that living under a 1/6 gravity for more than a year is deleterious to human health, this may not preclude the colonization of Mars with a gravity nearly 4/10 of that on Earth. It might mean, however, that any individual's continuous presence on the lunar surface should be limited to less than a year. Of course, it would be easier for lunar colonization if it turns out that a 1/6 gravity is no problem for human survival and reproduction. But we won't really know until we finally establish a permanent base on the Moon to see how well humans do over the long run under a hypogravity environment.
Second, NASA needs to use the billions of dollars currently dedicated to support the ISS to instead fund a solely American space station program which should include rotating simulated gravity space stations (finally). Large artificial Earth-like worlds will never become a reality unless we know if humans can remain healthy under simulated gravity environments.
Third, an interplanetary light sail program needs to be developed for cargo transport and for rapidly transporting humans through the inner part of the solar system (from Mercury to the asteroid belt). Aluminized carbon light sails should be manufactured and assembled at manned L1, L4, or L5 facilities. An aluminized 10km by 10km carbon nanotube light sail capable of transporting several hundred tonnes of payload to Mars in just a few months time would weigh less than ten tonnes.
Fourth, space stations need to be established in the orbital arc of the Martian Moon, Deimos, near enough to mine the carbon, oxygen, and hydrogen rich regolith of the Martian moon in order to provide the Earth's Moon and Earth orbiting space stations with the oxygen, hydrogen, and carbon resources that they need to become independent of the Earth's resources. Practically any type of simple electric powered catapult placed on the surface of Deimos should make it simple toss bags or canisters of regolith off the tiny moon's surface since the escape velocity of Deimos is only 20 kilometers per hour (12 miles per hour). Any individual could throw a rock from the surface of Deimos into Martian orbit. Light sails could transport the accumulated regolith in Martian orbit back to L1, L2, L4, or L5 for processing into oxygen, rocket fuel, water. The Martian moons are also rich in platinum which could be transported back to Earth after extraction.
Fifth, after Deimos, similar space stations should be established in the orbital arc of Phobos to mine the resources of that Moon as a way station towards the Martian surface. Again, simple electric powered regolith catapults should be placed on the surface of Phobos: the escape velocity is only 40 kilometers per hour (24 miles per hour).
Sixth, oxygen and hydrocarbon resources from Phobos should be used to fuel landing craft to establish a permanently manned and continuously growing facility on the surface of Mars. Such a facility should be totally self sustaining with the oxygen, water, carbon, nitrogen all coming from the Martian environment.
Seventh, NASA and private industry need to seriously and jointly fund the development of a reusable SSTO people shuttle that can be ready for launch within the next 10 or 15 years. Giving NASA, the military, and private industry easy access to orbit for human passengers, small payloads, and small satellites is an essential key towards space commercialization and industrialization. Space tourism will never really grow unless such a vehicle is developed.
This should be NASA's 20 year program for manned space flight, IMO. And it can all be done, progressively, as part of NASA's total budget, if that total NASA budget for manned and unmanned missions is between $20 to $30 billion annually. Chump change, IMO, when compared to what we're wasting in Iraq (over $100 billion annually) and far more beneficial to the American economy, national pride, and our scientific knowledge of the universe!
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