We started asking the generic congressional ballot question in our weekly State of the Nation Research 2000/Daily Kos poll back on May 21. Watch how the numbers have behaved since then:
That's a six-point Democratic lead -- better than a deficit, but down significantly from the 12-point lead we saw back in late May.
The graph shows the obvious trend -- Republicans have gained nothing in the last four months, but Democrats have faltered badly. Let's dig into the internals:
QUESTION: Would you like to see more Democrats or Republicans elected to Congress in 2010?
5/18-21 8/24-27
Not Not
Dem GOP Sure Dem GOP Sure
All 42 30 28 34 28 38
Dem 80 4 16 73 5 22
Rep 5 79 16 5 82 13
Ind 34 24 42 21 16 63
White 33 36 31 25 34 41
Black 73 4 23 62 6 32
Latino 57 25 18 50 21 29
Other 59 24 17 52 16 32
18-29 49 19 32 47 10 43
30-44 39 36 25 27 38 35
45-59 43 30 27 35 24 41
60+ 40 32 28 32 33 35
Northeast 52 16 32 46 9 45
South 33 42 25 23 44 33
Midwest 44 28 28 36 25 39
West 43 30 27 35 28 37
As noted already, this marks a halving of the Democrats' lead since we first asked this question. Democrats have lost eight points, Republicans 2, while the undecided have swelled by 10 points.
Note the partisan trends -- Republicans have barely budged. They've been home for a while. Democrats have lost among self-identified Democrats, losing a net eight points. But look at Independents, who appear more disgusted at the political process than anything. Democrats have lost 13 points among Independents--or 38 percent--but Republicans have lost 8 points as well, or 33 percent off their May levels. Meanwhile, the "not sure" numbers among Independents is up 50 percent to 42 percent.
We're not seeing a partisan shift among Independents, rather a tuning out. They clearly remain unhappy with Republicans (at 16%), but are becoming disenchanted with Democrats. If the Republican message was winning the debate, Independents would be flocking to the GOP. Instead, they appear more disgusted at Democratic incompetence than policy.
Republicans have picked up a sliver of support (a single point) from Democrats and those older than 60 years old, two points among Generation Xers (the most Republican-identifying generation), and two points from their regional stronghold in the South. They've lost ground among all other demographics.
Problem is, Democrats are losing ground at far bigger rates. People are unsure whether Democrats have what it takes to enact real change, and deliver on their grand promises from the 2006 and 2008 campaigns.
With Independents potentially sitting this next election out (as the numbers hint at), we're in bad shape in a base election. Core Republicans are engaged and solidly home. Democratic constituencies are wavering (look at those African American numbers). The only key Democratic constituency to have moved more Democratic are young voters -- from +30 Democratic to +37, but only because they are abandoning Republicans at a bigger rate than Democrats. And even those gains are threatened by the (non) geniuses in DC seriously contemplating a health care mandate without cost controls (like the public option).
At current rates, any 2010 losses would not stem from any resurgence in conservative ideology -- Republicans are simply not making any significant gains anywhere -- but in a loss of confidence in Democrats. There's a way to change that dynamic -- deliver on the promises made the last two election cycles. Failure to do that would make cynics out of too many idealistic political newcomers, while turning off base activists who do the hard on-the-ground work of winning elections.
Seems pretty obvious out here, outside the Beltway, and the numbers bear it out, but there's no indication that Democratic Party leaders in DC -- from Obama to Reid -- are fully aware of how dangerously close they are to setting the stage for an electoral drubbing in 2010.