E.J. Dionne Jr. wrote a fun little piece in the Washington Post Today, www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A51780-2005Feb24.html . It is about a commission being headed by Congressman Price (D-NC-4th) called the Commission on Presidential Nomination Timing and Scheduling.
Now Dionne makes a great point about how Democrats in Washington should be a little more worried about their lack of organized message and inability to articulate what they stand for to the American Voters, but since there is a commission; why not use this forum as an opportunity to offer our two cents.
Here is mine.....
I think to have a credible Primary/Caucus system you have to change things because as we saw the people of New Hampshire and Iowa despite their insistence otherwise are not capable of doing the job well enough or they would not have started pushing the snowball that was Kerry for President.
So what is my solution you ask well why not consolidate the opening primary day into a system that makes sense for Democrats. How about we have an opening round on the last Tuesday January that has five regionally representative states go at the same time. Here is why....
By doing this you would force candidates to go after one maybe two states on the opening primary/caucus day. This would force a candidate to appeal regionally for a win to afford him momentum heading into round two of the primary system where he would need to continue winning to get the nomination. It would force the press to do some real work in covering candidates in five states and creating lots of different press for different Democratic candidates and ideas, it would create more of a tournament feel (March Madness) that could only benefit the party as we see who will win a state and who will falter.
If we had a tournament feel to the process and made candidates actually reach voters and they were interested in the process to the point that Vegas was laying odds on the winners and losers I think we could have a more encompassing event. We need people on the average level to associate with our political process. This is one way I think to appeal to the masses. This is how you educate people, make them so interested in something that they create an office pool on the different dates, they will learn then about the candidates and where they are competing to better understand who the best candidate is.
Here are my first 5 and why:
New Hampshire - Represents the Northeast and they would have a fit if they weren't included, plus they have systems already in place that make them credible.
Iowa - Most of the same reasons as New Hampshire, but they represent the Midwest, they just have to share the spotlight now.
South Carolina - Small enough state with a large enough African-American population to show a true Southern sample and force all the so called Southern Candidates to battle it out down here and winnow themselves down to one.
New Mexico- Huge Hispanic population but small enough population wise to run an effective field operation if you focus there. This helps us with our appeal to Hispanic voters by including them in the process of selecting our presidential candidate.
Washington/Oregon- We need a Pacific Coast state and I see these as equally accessible for a field operation because of there population centers, also both are becoming good Democratic leaning states.
The Second Round:
This round would expand to 10 and would hopefully only have five candidates (the first round winners) left. This would require more funding, the key is though that this round would wait until the second Tuesday in March before going as way to allow the candidates to pick two or three states to set up shop in and give those states voters chance to see the candidates and make up their minds. This way it will not all be about television after the initial thrust of states there will still be a focus on grass roots and field organizing.
The 10
Arkansas- A Democratic Southern State that has the right size to allow for the candidates who target it a chance at the personal touch. This state is also a good place for the Midwestern Candidate who won Iowa to try and pick off from the Southern candidate.
Nevada- A former Democratic state that has easily accessible populations centers in Vegas and Reno that would make for a solid field plan. Plus a tip of the hat to Reid for being a great Senator and giving him some spotlight on the second round.
West Virginia - A border state that is wrongly turning red that could use the attention of the Democratic Party in a major second round thrust to help them fall in love with the party again.
Maine - Has enough moderate conservatives that would help shape a message and any candidate who was trying to sell themselves as a moderate would need to pick up this state and it would be easy for a candidate to move his New Hampshire operation there, that helps save money which is a good thing.
Michigan - The great prize of the second round, if you can win it you gain a leg up in the delegate count, but do you risk the money their and the possibility of a loss, when you could invest in two other states for the same price. Would also satisfy Levin by giving his state some input, and he needs to be a backer for any chance at reform.
Nebraska - A solid red state must be included here just to make sure we are still trying to compete on tough turf. Plus it would be a sign that a more moderate Democrat has a chance after surviving the first 5 by going into Nebraska and getting another win.
Louisiana - A little deeper south, but still a Democratic state. A good place for a Southern candidate to have to prove he can win. IF you cannot win and win big in the Democratic Primary as a Southern candidate then why bother.
Montana - A state the Democrats are coming back to life in that could use a nice reward. They still have some conservatives there who need to learn how to vote Democrat in a primary. Montana is big geographically, but nice population pockets to work in field wise.
Washington/Oregon - The one that does not go on the first round goes here.
Colorado - Large Growing Hispanic population with ability to go blue if the Party does some work there. Making it an important part of our nomination process would be a step in that direction. This continues the courtship of Hispanics.
The Third Round:
This would go on the first Tuesday in May. The idea being here that the field would be hopefully down to two or three. Here we send in the heavy hitter states on new kind of Super Tuesday. We know the candidate will most likely arise from here, but if not we could have a fun battle down the stretch into the convention. Here are my Super Tuesday Dozen that could finalize the nomination and here TV will be important along with some savvy field events to generate press and show momentum.
California
New York
Texas
Florida
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Arizona
Ohio
Wisconsin
Illinois
Minnesota
Georgia
Now this would give us one lead candidate and maybe someone trying to hang on which sets us up nicely for the home stretch of the final 23 states going towards the convention
The June Stretch:
The is would make for Primaries on the first and third Tuesdays of June 10 states each time to keep the excitement going, can a candidate rally back in June or is it a mere coronation here are my picks:
First Tuesday: I look at these states in pairs as to how you would go after them, I do not think you attempt to go after Alaska and Hawaii, but they need to give us their input at some point and here is a good place to slot them in.
North Dakota and South Dakota
Alaska and Hawaii
Rhode Island and Vermont
Missouri and Oklahoma
Mississippi and Alabama
Third Tuesday: These ten would again need to be looked at in pairs as how a candidate would target them.
Wyoming, Idaho and Utah
Kentucky, Indiana and Tennessee
Virginia and Maryland
Connecticut and Delaware
After June for each Tuesday in July there would be one primary for the final three states as we head into the convention. If two candidates are left battling this will be a huge event going into the convention and would create all kinds of media coverage.
1st Tuesday of July
Kansas - A caucus system that means it will all be about getting those Democratic activists to come out of the woodwork and help you find the votes you need to amass some delegates.
Massachusetts - A true blue state that would weigh in here at the last minute to make sure the party is getting to close to the center as we head into the election, remember people vote for who stands for their ideals, this state would assure we are not selecting a candidate to far away from the left.
North Carolina - A democratic controlled caucus that would need to be changed to a primary for this system to be proper, but would catapult them into the spot light. The Tar Heel State would be a media circus if this was close.
The convention would be awesome if we get a close battle between candidates. Can you imagine the fun a Kucinich would have going around and listiening to the candidates pitches to him for and endorsement after he releases his delegates. Can you imagine the fun of a Kucinich delegate being courted, when one delegate may make or break a candidate.
My point of a drawn out more competetive primary/caucus season is that we would get a better message if more appeal to Democrats is needed in more places to win the nomination.
A tournament feel would involve more people and make the better more interesting. Think about it.
So please have at it and tell me what you think.