Obviously, there is much speculation about who the Democrat will be in the ND Senate race, with Dorgan sadly dropping out. Earl Pomeroy has opted for another House run (and now may face Public Service Commissioner and former two-time Pomeroy opponent Kevin Cramer in the general). Heidi Heitkamp sounds like a good Senate prospect for the Democrats, and her Facebook draft page now has over 1000 members, so she's generating a buzz, but there are others if she declines (Roger Johnson, Wayne Sanstead etc).
However, just a consideration. People are now assuming Hoeven will jump in, though he is yet to formally declare. But even if he does, it should be noted that he isn't neccesarily a conservative darling, and we all know the relevance of that in the current climate.
Hoeven is seen as weak as a fiscal conservative, and some of the right-wing bloggers regard him as a RINO. This is largely due to the fact that he opposed a major tax cut ("Measure 2") and has increased spending, particularly on infrastructure. There doesn't seem to be much more to it than that, at least not yet, but it's now well-documented that being seen as remotely "tax-and-spend" or in any way unconservative on anything is apostasy to the Teabaggers. Here's a few links:
One discusses a primary challenge. Yes I know that's not an indication of anything serious, but the sentiment is there. Moreover, they make an important point; with Dorgan as the opponent, Hoeven was the best and probably only GOP candidate who could win. Without Dorgan, conservatives may feel they have the advantage (they do) and can therefore choose someone more conservative. It's a potential Crist-Rubio situation; no Democrat other than Meek would even try and challenge Crist because he was invincible, but he wasn't conservative enough for the GOP base. Likewise, Hoeven will be difficult if not impossible to beat for a Democrat, but there right-wing rumblings about his fiscal record. Rubio meanwhile, isn't unelectable per se, but certainly gives Dems a better shot than they would have against Crist. Same goes if Hoeven is primaried from his right.
"Say Anything" is a conservative blog is ND, and a source of low-level criticism against Hoeven. Here's a diary entry there about the strength of the Tea Party movement there, and how they think their sheer organization may have "scared" Dorgan into retiring. I doubt that somehow, but if they are as organized as they say they are, and if many of them share this discontentment with Hoeven and the belief that the seat is ripe for the picking for any Republican, could a conservative challenge be in the offing?
I'll admit that the above is largely speculation, and probably also wishful thinking on the part of both me and the Teabaggers. It is true that Teabaggers are launching many challenges across the nation, and some have the potential to take heat off the Democrats someewhat in 2010; Florida, Kentucky and perhaps California are the most obvious examples for the moment, on top of NY-23 last year. It is also true that far more of these challenges may never get off the ground; for all the speculation about the CT and IL Senate Republican Primaries, Mark Kirk and Rob Simmons are still the frontrunners, even if they swinging ridiculously to the right. Likewise, it remains to be seen whether the challenge against Bennett in Utah will ultimately succeed either, and the same goes for the bid against Pete Sessions in the Texas 32nd and who knows how many less-publicized Teabagger challenges. The odds are strongly against the Teabaggers taking out Hoeven, and even if they try, and it would remain to be seen who their candidate would be if they did attempt it. But with these nutcases, you never know. And they wouldn't have to mount a completely effective challenge to help Democratic prospects- a primary bid that wounded Hoeven and forced him to spend money and endure attacks would still soften him up at least a little bit for the general. We'll have to see if the wingnuts have it in them to once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory for themselves.