Is 2010 going to be a slaughter for Democrats? Listening to shows like Hardball and reading headlines like CNN’s "Democrats Dropping Like Flies" might tend to make you think so at first blush, but it is a hell of a lot more complex than that. So the Dog thought it might be worthwhile to take a look at all the factors before starting to despair and weep in his kibble.
"Originally posted at Squarestate.net"
The traditional things that many of the Beltway stenography crowd are looking at an pushing as the meme of Democratic doom as follows; the economy, jobs, approval ratings, retirements and history.
On the economy the argument is that even if the Democrats are not completely responsible for the crappy shape of the economy they are the party in power and so will be the focus of any populist ire. This is probably true, but there is a counter fact that needs to be kept in mind, the Republicans have no new ideas in this area. They are going to trot out the same old tired trope of "Tax cuts, tax cuts, tax cuts". This makes the protest vote potential a lot lower than it would normally be, as it is clear to the majority of Americans that these policies don’t really help the economy.
On jobs, the thinking is similar to the economy. If there is 10% unemployment then it is doom for the Dems. This is one area where the Democrats are going to have some trouble, but wait to see what kind of jobs bill comes out the Congress before ringing the bells of doom on this one. The Republicans will almost surely oppose any jobs bill on their policy of "Just Say No" so the public will see them out there arguing against addressing the most critical kitchen table issue of this cycle.
On approval ratings, this is so much Villager hooey. Yes approval rates are down from the election of last year for Democrats. While this can be a problem for turn out the fact is the Republican approval rates are lower. In the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll the Democrats have a 38/42 approval disapproval rates. While the Republicans have 28/45. So while there is a worry in terms of who is likely to be looked at as doing a good job, neither side has a great playing field but the Democrats have a far better one than the Republicans.
On retirements, the recent announcement of Senators Dodd and Dorgan, combined with the retirement of Colorado Governor Ritter have been played as the flies dropping, but look at the reality there. In the Senate there are 4 Democrats (so far) who will not run compared to 6 Republicans. In the House it is a little closer, with 10 Democrats not seeking re-election compared to the 14 for the Republicans.
Political pundits love to use retirement numbers as an indicator of what party is weak. The argument is people will more often leave if they believe they are going to be in the minority party. By this measure we should be talking about the Republican low sprits and fading relevance, but the Villagers don’t like that story so we see them pounding the Democrats are doomed drum.
There is history. The meme here is that the party that holds the White House always loses seats. This is actually a false meme, as recently as the criminal president Bush’s first term the Republicans picked up seats in the midterm elections. This is not the only example. But when you are a Villager this kind of nuance is a pain in the ass, so the Conventional Wisdom gets trotted out. It might be the general trend of things, but it is by no means a lock.
These are all the reasons that you will be seeing this kind of shrieking headlines, and if you combine them without looking at the broader picture you could come to the conclusions the Chattering Classes have. However, if you look a little farther a field you find a whole host of problems that more than counter the CW for this cycle.
First off, we have the disarray of the Republican party. The insane populists wing of the Republicans in the form of the Tea Party folks if a major drag on their electoral hopes. Looking at how this internecine fighting handed the Democrats the NY-23rd Congressional district, it is pretty clear the Tea Baggers don’t have any compunction in pushing for the hardest right of candidates. This combined with the "Hair" Club for Growth’s funding of rabidly anti-tax candidate makes it very hard for them to court the moderate voters.
Generally in a midterm election this is not as big a concern as in presidential election years, but if they are willing to run 3rd party candidates and split the hard core Republican vote, is negates the advantage of low turn out. In fact a charged up Tea-Bagger base is one of the things that might energize the disaffected Democratic base.
Then we have Michel Steele and the RNC. Mr. Steele is what you would charitably call a loose cannon. He shoots his mouth off and pisses off part of his party on a regular basis. It is hard to engineer a take over of the Congress if you don’t have unified leadership. Mr. Steele at the head of the RNC guarantees that there will not be unified leadership.
Then there is the issue of money. The RNC spent 90 million dollars this year. What did they get for their money? Two governorships and no Representatives. This is a bad dollar to win ratio for any party.
The NRCC (National Republican Congressional Committee) has only 4.3 million on hand and a debt of 2 million. They have barely enough to support one campaign let alone the 40 or more they need to be able to reclaim the House. The DCCC on the other hand has 15.3 million, with a debt of 2.6. This allows them to play a hell of a lot of defense as well as some offense in the coming cycle.
Finally, there is the issue of achievement. The Dog, like many of the more involved and liberal Democrats is less than happy with the performance of the president and the Congress on HRC and other issues the fact is the Democrats will be able to point to things they have done and the Republicans opposed. The stimulus plan has made a difference. When you have the American Enterprise Institute, not commonly considered a bastion of Dirty Freaking Hippy thought, saying that without the stimulus the economy would have contracted by 1% for all of 2009 it will be hard for Republicans to deny it was a positive thing, even though they voted against it en mass.
The extension of unemployment benefits and the COBRA subsidy will also be things every Democrat can point to and say "This is what Democrats in power means for the people".
There may even be some boost from the HCR bill, as it is better by a long shot than anything Republicans would have done and it does help to bring health care to many Americans who do not have it. The only issue here is that it will not kick in until well after this cycle so there is some doubt as to what the benefits will be.
All in all things are tough, there is no disputing that, but they are by no means dire for Democrats. If they Democratic Leadership were wise (and the Flying Spaghetti Monster knows they are not) they would hammer away at populist legislation between now and the Election Day. They would force votes to make it clear the Republicans are still the party that only cares about big companies and deregulation. This would boost their chances going into the voting.
The Dog is going to go out on a bit of limb and say that while we are likely to have losses, including our shaky and badly used 60 seat majority in Senate, the 113th Congress will see a Democratic majority remain in both Houses. The losses while may even make passing our agenda easier as our coalition is likely to be far more uniform and a little bit narrower. For the mean time keep in mind that media outlets have to have viewers and readers to keep their advertisement dollars high, so they are likely to run straight to the meme that screams the loudest. It does not make it the reality, it just makes it a good story.
The floor is yours.