There has been much talk of how teabagger enthusiasm could cost the GOP a few potential wins in 2010 due their insistance on right-wing purism, and a few days ago, I wrote I diary speculating on how there was very vague, minor possibility of teabagger politics maybe playing a role in the suddenly-crucial North Dakota Senate race, on top of the already observable effects in Florida, Kentucky and elsewhere. One commenter did say something valid in response to that diary, that it doesn't show much faith in progressive ideals to just hope for the GOP to sabotage itself, but I don't think that's the whole story. Bill Owens in the NY 23rd was a good candidate who ran a strong Democratic campaign, backing the public option and other priorities. That said, the district was tough, and without an extra boost from the disasterous Hoffman campaign, he might not have pulled it off. In a race you look for every edge, and one could be emerging for any Democrat who wishes to be the next U.S. Senator from Arizona.
After Janet Napolitano was tapped for Homeland Security, the conventional wisdom was of course that John McCain would be unbeatable for reelection 2010. Even for Napolitano, it would have been a tough fight. In February 2009, the Democratic leader in the Arizona State Senate addressed the issue of Democratic recruitment for the race and said Democratic leaders weren't really bothering to recruit for the race;
"There hasn’t been any discussion about any [candidates]," says Jorge Luis Garcia, minority leader in the state senate. "The Democratic Party would be willing to lend support to a candidate against Senator McCain. It would be very expensive--very, very, very expensive."
That was reasonable. There's a few good Dems in the state, but they're better off doing what they're doing now or perhaps waiting to challenge Kyl in 2012. McCain isn't worth it, and has only drawn a token Democratic challenger, Rudy Garcia.
But that was then, this is now. There has been increasing speculation about Hayworth challenge to McCain in the primary, and the Rasmussen poll showed that even though Hayworth is yet to announce (he is seemingly gearing up, though), he already virtually ties McCain, and the primary isn't until June. And of course, everyone made hay out of McCain's radio ad that targeted the teabagger set, and interpreted it is a sign that McCain was clearly worried about the threat from Hayworth.
Hayworth could still decide not to run, in which case nothing changes. But the implications are clear; if he does, the dynamics of this race become very similar to Florida. For Florida, Dems are already being forced to weigh the odds and implications. If he survives the primary (unlikely), Senator Crist would be more moderate than Senator Rubio. But if Rubio wins the primary (more likely, assuming nothing shakes up the race for Crist), a bloodied, penniless far-right Rubio would be somewhat more vulnerable in the general than Crist, but still far from "unelectable". Moreover, many Democrats have their doubts about Kendrick Meek's strength in the general, even against a bloodied Rubio, though a thin bench and the long odds of the race mean that Meek is probably the best Dems can hope for, and they just have to hope that his ambitious, Obama-style organizing efforts and his possible ability to bring out complacent AA voters will pay off.
In Arizona, the calculations would be similar, but probably better for the Democrats. Right-wing as he is, Rubio is young, telegenic and would be able to take Florida's crucial Latino vote, as Martinez was able to do against Castor in 2004. Hayworth, meanwhile, would be easier to paint as an unpopular extremist and would drive Latinos towards the Democrats. Moreover, the Democratic bench in AZ is better. AG Terry Godard (D) is already running for governor, which is priority, given redistricting, so its probably best he stays in that race. But if Hayworth does announce and begins to get traction against McCain, as he probably will, then State and national Democrats will have to look at recruitment.
One candidate being touted is Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon. His record does sound impressive, but he does have at least one gaping flaw; he endorsed McCain for president in 2007. His excuse was that McCain has done a lot for Phoenix as senator and has supported Gordon, and he also tried to make some point about how Mayor of Phoenix is technically a non-partisan position, but it's hard to see how that would all fly in a primary. He also endorsed Andrew Thomas, the 2002 GOP nominee for AG and an ally of Joe Arpaio. Worse still, he reportedly endorsed Arpaio himself, though Gordon has more recently challenged Arpaio. Additionally, if McCain survived the primary, Dems could still bank on him being weakened and fight for the seat, but Gordon would be unable to capitalize on it. Imagine the message; "I supported McCain for president in 2008. Now we need to defeat him because he's opposing Obama's agenda. Which I also opposed, because I supported McCain in 2008."
My favorite would be Gabrielle Giffords. It'd be like Kirsten Gillibrand's elevation to the Senate, only without her Blue Dog voting record being a statewide liability. Giffords is a moderate, a member of both the New Democrats and the Blue Dogs. But she is progressive where it counts and has been very loyal to Obama's agenda, including backing the public option. She would be better than McCain and a thousand times better than Hayworth. She fought off what was meant to be a strong challenge in 2008 from State Senate President Tim Bee (R).
The only problem would be that the Arizona 8th is R+4. However, a House seat for a Senate seat is a worthy trade, so it could be worth the risk. Moreover, the GOP lost this seat to Giffords in both 2006 and 2008 by ignoring the fact that the GOP constituency in the area is a moderate one, a fact reflected by previous Rep. Jim Kolbe (R), who was openly gay, pro-choice and socially liberal. In fact, Kolbe refused to support Randy Graf (R) in 2006, and withdrew his initial endorsement of Bee in 2008. If Dems can find a strong replacement candidate in the 8th and the GOP overeach yet again, maybe the seat will stay in Democratic hands. Congressman Harry Mitchell (D-Arizona 5th) is another possibility, but his district is R+5 and used to belong to Hayworth himself, so holding it could be difficult against even a conservative Republican. Kirkpatrick is a freshman and should focus on holding her own seat, while Grijalva and Pastor would probably be too liberal to run statewide, and should focus on the work they're doing in the House (particularly Grijalva).
Obama had reportedly signalled a (reluctant) willingness to let Salazar resign the cabinet and run for Governor of Colorado if he'd so wished, though Salazar has of course turned that down. However, it would be more complicated with Napolitano; voters are likely to view Homeland Security as a more vital position than Interior, particuarly in the wake of the Christmas Day attack. Republicans are already attacking Napolitano and the Administration over the attack, and if she then abandoned her post now to run for elected office, then it could play very badly for both her as a candidate and against President Obama. She's doing a good job where she is, regardless of what the GOP say, and she should stay there, I think.
Giffords is my preference. But if not her, the local and national parties need to get someone to run if Hayworth announces. Some on here have talked of helping Hayworth against McCain, but that's not neccesary- the teabaggers can do it on their own and Democrats should focus on their own candidates. Democrats should focus on making sure that there is a real Democratic candidate there to face Hayworth (or a wounded McCain), or this could be a major missed oppurtunity. It could help cancel out Dorgan's retirement, or a Democratic loss in Nevada or Arkansas, and Democrats need every last Senate seat they can get, given the fillibuster.
Update: I didn't mention Rodney Glassman in the diary, but I did put him in the poll. Glassman is a Tucson City Councilman, who has already formed an exploratory committee for run against McCain, and has apparantly been encouraged to run by party officials. If Hayworth runs, it would still be better if Democrats could recruit Giffords or another high-profile challenger, but Glassman is someone to consider.
http://www.tucsonweekly.com/...
http://www.rodneyglassman.com/