I ask because, when I'm stressed about something, I turn to the facts. I study up and try to learn all I can about an issue so that I can feel comfortable discussing it. In studying the party registration numbers in MA, it becomes clear that we will need a huge Dem turnout to win. So, can we get to 70%?
MA Party Registration Numbers
Math has never really been my friend. It's was always my weakest subject in school-I'm more of a history buff. But, I had no where else to turn. For my calculations, I assumes a turnout of: 70% Democrats, 75% Independents, and 100% Republicans (I know that won't happen, but they are highly motivated, so I went with it.) With those numbers, you get the following amount of voters:
70%D: 1,091,624
100% R: 490,259
75%I: 1,606,408
Now, I projected the following vote percentages for each candidate:
Brown: 15% D 60%I 95% R (I know you'd think Brown would get every GOP vote, but no candidate ever gets every vote from their party. 95% is very high).
Coakley: 85% D 40%I 5%R
With these numbers, here are the results:
Brown: 1,593,333
Coakley: 1,594,956
Pretty damn close huh? What if the turnout is different? What if we knock the indies down to 70% turnout? Well:
Brown: 1,529,077
Coakley: 1,552,118
Little bigger spread, but still very close.
Of course, there is a wild card in all this-the third party candidate, Joe Kennedy. I have no idea who he'd take votes from, so I left him out.
As people smarter than me have pointed out, the key to this election is the GOTV. So, my question to people more knowledgeable than I: can we get 70% Dem turnout?