For years many of us have watched as the eyes of the political universe focused to the north. Some of us participated by trekking up to New Hampshire during primary time, or lobbying people we know up there.
Now the center of the U.S. political universe is in Massachusetts, and it kind of feels like we've stepped through the looking glass. Or moved to Nashua. It has taken this weekend for many voters here to fully grasp the fact that our vote matters not only locally, but nationally.
We get it now. We'll turn out.
A lot of us wonks were chattering about the primary, but really for a fair number of voters, either of the two top candidates were acceptable. But a prevailing assumption here was that the primary was pretty much the general election. I mean, you're talking about Ted Kennedy's seat.
What we didn't factor in was the special election timing, which means no other elections are going on, which means that a lot of right-wing money could flood in here because nothing else was going on. If this was a regular election, it's highly doubtful Scott Brown would have seen the same level of financial support - there would be too many other closer races siphoning off the money.
We weren't prepared for that. (We thought we dodged that bullet when the state Legislature refused to muster even 25% support for placing a measure to overturn marriage equality on the ballot for a referendum vote. The spectre of two years of outside money flooding in here for endless commercials about marriage was a powerful argument by Gov. Patrick against allowing the referendum.)
But let me tell you, it's like a switch has been flipped. People who haven't been talking about politics since the '08 Presidential election are suddenly engaged, not only talking about this, but reaching out to other people they know. This isn't just wishful thinking. The environment here has COMPLETELY changed since Friday. I can't guarantee how it will affect the final outcome, but I can tell you that it feels totally different now than it did this time a week ago.
That's a huge X factor that will be difficult to poll, especially because this is a holiday weekend. I suspect a lot of people are away (especially the skiers).
The good news is that even though this is a once in a generation event (if that), that our votes matter so much at the national level, we know how that works, having had so much exposure to the New Hampshire primaries next door.
The other X factor is the weather. Forecasts in eastern Mass. have gone from "partly sunny" to "partly cloudy" to "snow showers" with a possibility of a couple of inches. I doubt this will make much of an impact in central or western Mass. I am concerned that it could dampen the senior turnout in eastern Mass.
That's why, even though I walk to my polling place unless it's pouring rain out - it's only a mile and a half or so away, and parking can be a bit annoying when there's a heavy turnout - I expect to be calling my older neighbor and ask if she wants to come with me when I go vote. If she does, I'll drive there.
Making sure anyone who doesn't like driving in the snow gets to the polls should be one of the most important GOTV activities tomorrow. The ground game may be especially important in eastern Mass. if you get a few inches of snow accumulating.