Massachusetts, a historically blue state, has just elected a Republican Senator. Pundits everywhere are rushing to tell us all what it means (despite the fact that there is almost no polling which supports their arguments, whatever they may be), and members of Congress are falling over themselves to jump in front of television cameras to let us know "message received!" The trouble is, I think they are all wrong on the message they are hearing.
In November 2008, there were 35 Senate elections, 435 House elections, 10 gubernatorial elections, and a presidential election. That year, the two parties won the following elections (Lieberman and Sanders are considered Democrats for our purposes):
| Democrat Wins | Republican Wins |
House Elections | 257 | 178 |
Senate Elections | 20 | 15 |
Gubernatorial Elections | 6 | 6 |
Presidential Elections | 1 | 0 |
Since November 2008, there have been 2 House elections, 2 gubernatorial elections, and one Senate election, with Democrats winning both House elections and losing both gubernatorial elections and the Senate election.
In other words, pundits now want us to accept that the five elections which have been held since November 2008 trump all "messages" sent by voters through the 481 elections held in 2008- even though Democrats dominated the 2008 elections and went 2-3 since 2008 (and had a Senator switch parties to join the Democrats in that span). How does that make any sense at all?
Even more baffling is that pundits want us to accept that the Massachusetts election, which featured an awful candidate who went on vacation (not metaphorically- she literally went on vacation) during the campaign, and who thought shaking hands in the cold outside Fenway Park sounded likea ridiculous waste of time, is clear proof that voters don't want health care reform to pass. Coakley began the race up 30 points. Did voters change their mind that much on health care in a little over a month, or could her drop better be explained by the horrific campaign she ran?
But wait, oh punditry- shouldn't we also believe that the election in NY-23 sent a message? I mean, after all, the last time a non-Republican won that seat was in the 1800s! Nope. In fact, pundits tell us the Republican loss in NY-23 was also the fault of liberals.
Democrats ran in 2008 on the promise of reforming a broken health care system- a system that is quite literally costing people their lives. They asked for the mantle of responsibility to deal with health care reform and they got it. This is what that mantle feels like. It is heavy, it is hard, and it is burdensome. Deal with it. It is your job. When voters elected you, THAT was the message they were sending and the one our elected officials should have received: make things better and give no excuses.
Yes, some polls suggest the plan proposed by Congress is opposed by many Americans, but polls are an imprecise science, and subtle changes in wording can lead to widely divergent responses. They are also affected by the lies and demagoguery directed at the health care reform efforts (remember the death panels?). Even so, several, such as Gallup, show a plurality (and almost a majority) still support the reform bill (49% in favor, 46% opposed, as of last week). Ramussen Reports, on the other hand, shows only 38% support the reform bill. Whatever poll our elected representatives are looking at, the polling hasn't changed significantly since before the Massachusetts election when the House and Senate members were telling us all it was critical that reform get done, and quickly- so the polls can't be their excuse. All that has changed is a single election in a state which, ironically, already passed health care reform which looks very much like the reform being proposed by Congress right now. Their best data point, and the one subject to the least amount of polling error, is their own election- based, in part, on the candidates' promises that health care would be fixed.
Voters are angry. The economy is down, jobs aren't yet coming back, and people are generally struggling. Ironically, one of the best things the government can do to help would be to fix the health care system and ease at least that burden from the peoples' collective shoulders. Instead, they are somehow getting the message they should do nothing. Send them the right message. Write your Senator and congressperson today and demand better.
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