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    A new poll by University of Cincinnati/Ohio Newspaper Poll, known as the Ohio Poll, has Republican challenger John Kasich beating Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland by six points, 51-45%: http://www.daytondailynews.com/...

     The results represent a seven point shift from the last Ohio Poll in October, which had Strickland leading by one point. The new poll is right in line with other published recent polls since November, which all have Kasich now leading by between 6 and 10 points. The RCP poll average is now Kasich +7.7.

      These results continue a steady trend since polling of this race started roughly a year ago, at which point Strickland held a thirty point lead. The Ohio Poll, Quinnipiac, and Rasmussen have all shown a linear decline in Strickland's numbers since that time.

      Clearly we are now beyond the "It's-an-outlier" denial phase employed by Ted-heads during the summer and fall. The trend continues downward for Strickland across all the published polls, Kasich now tops 50%, the proportion of swayable undecideds is shrinking, and Strickland has now played his big cards -- those being a a supposed big announcement gala two weeks ago, and the naming of a running mate.

      The gala came off glumly, since it followed a seven-month state budget standoff with the Republican Senate, and the running mate announcement seemed to feed a GOP talking point when the state GOP chairman was able to say convincingly that Strickland had been forced to go with his eighth choice.

      The decrepitude of the Strickland campaign was on display this week when Ted visited the lovely town of Circleville, to celebrate the expansion of a Dupont chemical plant. Ballyhooed as a counterbalance to the hundreds of thousands of jobs the state has lost, the expansion will bring only 80 jobs, for the manufacture of a "plasticlike film" named -- I kid you not -- Tedlar! One can only speculate on the tax breaks Dupont won in secret negotiations with that branding.

      Things look to significantly worsen for the Governor as we head into a new and even deeper state budget crisis, as unemployment compensation from the first big round of layoffs expires, and as Ohio's newspapers and the state GOP warm-up for the summer revelations of sensational Democratic corruption scandals, some of which are already brewing.

       Meanwhile, the Ted-heads are deeper in denial than Rod Blagojevich caught as a kid with the cookie jar. Anastasia Pantsios, writing on the Ohio Daily Blog, said about a week ago that she's confident Strickland is "a shoo-in" (sic). A certain "Ted is a popular guy" nostalgia has set in, reminiscent of the Russian peasants who still religiously leave flowers at monuments to Brezhnev and Stalin. (Less excusable, however, because Brezhnev and Stalin both provided full employment.)

      Not everyone is oblivious to what is happening. A series of shake-ups on the prospective 2010 Democratic ballot reveal the civil war that is happening within the Ohio Democratic Party, with the Strickland machine taking hit after hit. First, Strickland's hometown hand-picked congressional candidate in OH-02 was forced to withdraw in the face of a corruption scandal first reported by yours truly. (Check my blogroll or tag Todd Book).

       Then, the Massachusetts Maelstrom had the nonintutive effect of dooming the candidacy of Strickland's horse in the Senate primary race, Lee Machine-Man Fisher. All the smart money is now on dynamo streetfighter Jennifer Brunner.

       Now, another candidate from Tedland, Jennifer Garrison, who had seemed a "shoo-in" as the party's nominee for Secretary of State, is in serious trouble, attacked by all progressives for her militant anti-abortion and anti-gay stances. Plunderbund.com reports a "rumor" that Garrison will withdraw, and be replaced by Sharon Neuhardt, a dynamic spic-and-span true progressive from Yellow Springs, as anti-Machine as they come. Let's hope the rumor is true.

       In short, the Strickland Machine is coming undone in anticipation of the Ted-man's coming dethronement.

       The real drama now will be how a pretty darned good down-ticket Democratic line-up can distance itself from the pre-ordained loser at the top of the ticket. Or, as I still think will happen, how the party will get Ted off the ticket as he continues to poison the blue brand in Ohio.

        And to be crystal clear: It's not that Mr. Strickland is destined to lose this election. It's that Mr. Strickland SHOULD lose this election. He's capped his career with a stint as governor marked by dishonesty, dishonor, incompetence, and catering to special interests.

       I don't want to hear how bad John Kasich is. John Kasich isn't running as a Democrat. Kasich will not destroy the fortunes of Democratic candidates who deserve a defensible brand -- and that includes Barack Obama, who may wind up needing Ohio in 2012.

      Get off the ballot, Ted, while the getting is good.

     

Originally posted to Ohiobama on Mon Jan 25, 2010 at 02:58 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wary, VClib, bugscuffle

    "Politics: The conduct of public affairs for private advantage." -- Ambrose Bierce

    by Ohiobama on Mon Jan 25, 2010 at 02:58:06 PM PST

  •  Oh, my. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    El Zmuenga, Wary, Losty

    Every day, in every way, it's looking to be a bad, bad year.

    Why don't you try reading the rules, Shankopotamus?

    by bugscuffle on Mon Jan 25, 2010 at 03:01:45 PM PST

  •  Oh, you.... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DanD, TLS66, auditor, theunreasonableHUman

    Did they post Kasich's favorability rating?   Does anyone know who he is?  Last rasmussen poll had 75% of Ohioans had no idea who he  was.

    In your anti-Strickland rage, you also neglect to mention Strickland's positive approval rating in the same poll...

    6% undecided?  This far out?  C'mon!  U of Cincinnati is a good pollster, but they must have pushed really hard for this one!

    DARTH SPECTER: I am altering the deal! Pray I don't alter it any further!
    LANDO REID: This deal keeps getting worse all the time!

    by LordMike on Mon Jan 25, 2010 at 03:08:40 PM PST

    •  Kasich's numbers go up (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      VClib

      the more people do get to know him. You denialists fail to acknowledge that the guy is a media personality, extremely likable, and very convincing as a speaker.

      Typically, you attack this poll for too low a % of undecideds, while I'm sure you also have issues with the Rasmussen poll which had a much larger number of undecideds and had Kasich up by 7 points. So?  Kasich is up whether the pollsters push or not.

      Stricland's approval rating is highly dependendent on the phrasing of the question and is not a reliable indicator. Rasmussen has Strickland's DISapproval at 54%.

      The rage seems entirely to be with you, who cannot accept facts as they are.

      •  Ted-heads? Denialists? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Wary

        I'm a New Yorker and have no dog in this race, but really, your tone is downright insulting and if you expect to bring anyone to your way of thinking with that, you're deluded.

        "Valerie, why am I getting all these emails calling me a classless boor?"

        by TLS66 on Mon Jan 25, 2010 at 03:29:32 PM PST

        [ Parent ]

        •  I suggest you read the history (0+ / 0-)

          in my previous blogs, and the comments.

          Pay special attention to the tone of those, some of whom are former Strickland staff, whoargued that Strickland was "certain" to win this race and that anyone who suggested otherwise or questioned his onvious screw-ups in office was a disloyal Democrat.

          See we in Ohio do not yet enjoy the luxury you New Yorkers enjoy of intra-party democracy. You have genuine contested primaries. Until now, Ohioans have not.

          I moved here from New York.

        •  he's basically calling out a dKos person (0+ / 0-)

          who posts and opines on Ohio politics a lot here, with whom he disagrees.

          I guess it's not a clearcut violation of dKos rules against calling out specific people (which is an offense that can lead to banning), but it's right up against it and across it in spirit.

  •  Crap (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Wary, cacamp

    I thought this guy retired from politics. He's back? I guess evil republicans never die, they just go underground for a few years and regroup.

  •  This is getting Old (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ahianne, TLS66, ohdemvoter, Wary

    Sorry.  Strickland is not getting off the ballot.  Give up on that and help figure out how to help him win or just shut up.  

    We must all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately - Ben Franklin

    by DanD on Mon Jan 25, 2010 at 03:17:45 PM PST

  •  Who is Ron Blagojevich? (0+ / 0-)
  •  Kasich - the real issue (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    auditor, Fury, mos1133, JC7

    All Dems are screwed until unemployment goes below 8% -

    everything else is window dressing

    Figure out a way below 8% and fast

    •  that's half-way true (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Fury

      but right now ohioans don't trust the repubs after what Taft did...but Kasich, with his name recognition...and bet he'll be on Fox 24/7 leading up to election day will be formidable.  I do think unemployment is a huge issues and Strickland's safest way to win is to get that number down...I also think it's important for Brunner to be on the ticket as she is more inspiring will bring in more voters than Lee Fisher who's she's in a primary contest with.

      •  Good points -- then some (0+ / 0-)

        You make some specific points that are really good..

        But to be honest .. Dems can neutralize unemployment issue if they map out a logical way under 8% that is easy to grasp.. No Tortured Logic.
        Than force Repubs to come up with an answer besides TAX CUT wand.

        Force the issue.

        Dems also need to understand 10% unemployment is not meaning 1 in 10 is affected.  Those out of work people usually have kids or Spouse.  and thier pain is transferred.  And those people turn to employed people for help.  Dems need to be aware of this and communicate it.

        But you make great points, Doesnt hurt that Kasich is not a jerk, is actually for affirmative action and likeable - tough road against him.

  •  Never heard of Kasich. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    mos1133

    I realize I'm bad at finding state news, not living in or near a city, but I've never even heard the name.

  •  this is a campaign commercial (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, Ohiobama

    for Jennifer Brunner...she can help strickland by being on the ticket as she will bring in new and more voters.  I don't have too much of a problem with Strickland...but I do believe people have their head in the sand if they don't think Kasich is a formidable opponent.

  •  Am I supposed to be surprised? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ohiobama

    After representing East Ohio in Congress, Ted Strickland has totally forsaken us.

    Am I supposed to be surprised that he will lose in 2010?

  •  thanks tipped and rec'ed nt (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ohiobama
  •  More ridiculousness from a guy who knows nothing. (0+ / 0-)

    Strickland wasn't behind Garrison's campaign.  Not at all.  Yet again, you are spouting off on things you've never bothered to look into.  The Cincinnati GLBT community has reported that Strickland said in a private GLBT fundraiser that he'd never have someone like Garrison, whom he referred to by name, on his ticket.

    Garrison ran because she saw an opportunity.  Now, she realizes that the progressive community is not willing to hold our noses for her, so she's likely going to get out of the race.

    Pick up a phone sometime and call around before you just write on a national blog what you THINK has happened.

    •  More distortion from Strickland ex-staffers (0+ / 0-)

      This commenter is a former Strickland staff aide, that should say it all.

      I didn't say that Strickland was "behind" Garrison's run. I said she was from Tedland -- she's from Marietta, in Strickland's old congressional district. She began her rise to party prominence along with the rest of the Strickland gand from southeast Ohio, including your (ex?) friend Todd Book, and we might add, you.

      It's precisely no different from the Ohio Gang that Harding brought with him from Washington Courthouse, Ohio -- who then pulled off the Teapot Dome scandal.

      And THAT is why Mr. Strickland is going down in flames.

      •  Ugh. (0+ / 0-)

        Anytime you are comparing Ted to the "Teapot Dome" scandal, you're stretching... big time.

        People aren't going to turn out for Krikorian.  So, you'd better get it in your head that if Ted goes, Schmidt stays.

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