Crossposted at Asian Pacific Americans for Progress.
If you haven't yet read The Political Brain by Drew Westen, you should. It's a book, based on well-established psychological principles, on how the Democrats consistently lose the messaging wars with Republicans. In a nutshell, the book argues that Dems constantly frame their arguments in dry, coldly rational policy language while Reps use evocative, emotion-laden terms designed to prime their audience's brains.
Rumor was that the Dems were taking this book very seriously. But if they ever took it to heart, they seem to have forgotten the lessons already. How else can you explain their complete, dismal failure to win the message wars on health care?
So here are 3 predictions on how the Dems will continue to lose the message wars.
- DADT
Reps: Destroying our military! We won't be able to recruit! Social engineering! (Unspoken: them gays are bad)
What Dems should say: We should be waging war on our enemies, not on our soldiers.
What Dems will say: Admiral So-and-so, General So-and-so and Secretary So-and-So have concluded that our military readiness will not be impacted - as if Americans knew or cared who Admiral So-and-So, General So-and-so and Secretary So-and-So are. For good measure, Dems will point to Republican "national security experts" who think DADT should be overturned - thus reinforcing in voters minds that a national security policy isn't valid unless a Republican gives his stamp of approval. Then some conservadems will go on record boldly claiming that this is premature to consider, thus burnishing their "centrist" credentials, and reinforcing in voters minds that civil rights for gays and lesbians is a left wing cause.
Score: Republicans 1, Democrats 0
- Financial regulatory reform
Reps: More government! More intrusion! More of the same that got us into this mess! (P.S. They've already started this -- see http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...
What Dems should say: And you want the fox to watch the henhole? We need protections for Main Street, not Wall Street
What Dems will say: Reporting, transparency, derivatives, capital requirements and a bunch of other stuff no one understands, thus playing into the Republican hands that this is a bureaucratic monstrosity. Obama will talk about "economists from the right as well as the left" who support this, again reinforcing in voters mind that an economic bill isn't valid unless a Republican signs off on it. Then Dems will start squabbling with themselves about arcane provisions in the bill and whether they should pass an omnibus legislation or break it into small pieces to make it digestible - again, reinforcing the notion that this bill is a bureaucratic monstrosity. Some obscure provisions will be picked apart by the Republicans as a back-door special interest break - and the Democrats may react by modifying the bill, thus validating the initial charges.
Score: Republicans 2, Democrats 0
- Jobs bill
Reps: Deficits! Runaway spending! Pork! Bankrupting the country! Vote buying!
What Dems should say: Link it to the bailout recovery fee - We're going to get our money back from Wall Street and put it to work for the American people. You call spending money on American jobs "waste" - we call that an investment. You call that socialism - we call that opportunity.
What Dems will say: The Such-and-such institute predicts that this job will create X # of new jobs. It will give tax breaks to small businesses, encouraging hiring by freezing the payroll tax, etc., etc. Along the way, though, they'll keep stressing the tax cuts, which will be interpreted as a tacit nod to Republican policies. Obama will talk about his budget freeze, creating mixed messages - if the budget deficit is so important that you freeze discretionary spending, why are you spending money on a jobs bill?
Score: This one might be a draw, since a jobs bill is inherently popular. Voters will like the specifics of the bill, but Republicans will successfully plant seeds of doubt about deficit spending, which voters link to the recession.
(Oh yes, did I forget to mention health care?)
Final Score: Republicans rout the Democrats in November. Obama is emasculated (as if he hasn't emasculated himself already) and turns to Bill Clinton small-bore policy steps. He becomes a two-term, "centrist" president who didn't get much done instead of the transformational leader we all hoped he would be. Policy stalemate continues, the economic gap continues to grow, climate change goes on, health care becomes more and more unaffordable, and the country's slow decline goes unabated.