In the last few weeks the anticipation and the rhetoric has been picking up in Iran. In the aftermath of December's Ashura protests, where the government was confronted with an insurgency that will not fade and in fact appears to be growing despite attempts at intimidation. Last week, two dissidents were executed, and they promised nine more executions before the February 11th Revolution Anniversary (22 Bahman). See Diary Here: 22 Bahman.
The rhetoric is continuing as Reform leaders over the last couple days have continued to announce their support for more protests and their claims that the current government is an illegitimate representative of the 1979 Revolution.
Recent statements of both Green/Reform leaders Karroubi and Mousavi are critical, but they remain in agreement that the 1979 Revolution was correct. See CNN here: February 3, 2010, and here: The Economist February 2, 2010. Do not underestimate, however, the radicalism of statements like this:
The refusal to conform to lies, cheating and corruption, which we witness today (in Iran), clearly shows the presence of this ongoing and everlasting achievement, just as the tightening choke hold on the media and press, the filling up of prisons and the merciless killings of the innocents on the streets, whose only wish is to peacefully obtain what is rightfully theirs; clearly shows the existence of the roots of oppression and dictatorship which are leftovers of the tyrannical monarchy. --Mousavi
...tyranny, arrests and imprisonment of journalists, students and political activists, show trials, executions, and heavy-handed sentencing of those who are unjustly and wrongly accused as well as a greatly increased military environment.--Karroubi
Both leaders have called for massive demonstrations on February 11th--22 Bahman. Both leaders have called to remain steadfast and peaceful in these protests.
The government for their part have repeatedly denounced all protests as the action of "arrogant foreign powers." Ayatollah Jannati, head of the Guardian Council, calls for execution of enemies of Islam.
All of this is heading for a significant confrontation that neither side can back away from at this point. It will either be a very large game of chicken--where one side blinks--OR it will be a bloody confrontation that will likely cause events to create a will of their own.
Many religious people are worried, because they think that the those within existing power structure are using Islam to protect their current position. If mayhem results from February 11th, there is no way to predict who will prevail, nor how many will sacrifice for a "New Iran."
Here are some images and video to go along with the next week's events:
This video is a bit rough. Just so you know--the visual text does not match the words of the song. The song is generally speaking of freedom, and a desire to escape fear of religion. This actually coincides with what many of the religious believe about the current government--specifically that it is poisoning the reputation of religion--why should people fear religion? This is not what Islam should be.
The video contains some images that are almost supporting monarchy--the image of the Archer is Rostam, a king in legend--from Shahnameh--by Ferdosi--they are the tales of legendary kings of Persia written in the middle ages after the introduction of Islam in Iran. In the current political context, Shahnameh can be a loaded political text.