Whether they're "insane" or a religious movement living in a parallel, self-contained culture, what remains of the Republican Party - the Tea Party GOP - are still a powerful political force. Gallup polling shows only 28% of voters are Republicans vs. 35% Democrats, yet last year they outnumbered us in visible activism and pollsters predict they will outnumber us in voter enthusiasm. As independents are prone to jump on winning bandwagons, that is sobering news for the Democratic Party. How can we win the center?
For starters, ignore the Janitor Professor of Astrology and your Kossascope when planning your weekend. Or you won't plan anything.
More below the fold....
Tea Party GOP II - How Progressives Can Win the Center
Yesterday we explored this week's Research 2000/DailyKos poll of the Tea Party GOP. I suggested that two questions - 77% of Republicans think Genesis should be taught in public schools as the origin of the universe, and 67% believe only Christians get to heaven - suggested the Tea Party GOP is as much a religious movement as a political party. That mirrors the findings of a December 2009 Gallup poll showing the devoutly religious are more likely to identify as Republicans, while the less religious and non-religious are more likely to identify as Democrats.
In order to have an electoral and popular majority, progressive Democrats need Fred, our archetypal median voter:
That picture, drawn by the Fredling (Fred's 10-year-old daughter) based on polling data researched by Mrs. Fred, is a reasonable look at American voters. The two blue figures to the left are progressive Democrats. The dark purple figure beside them is a moderate Democrat. The two red figures to the right are conservative Republicans. The four light purple figures are Independents; the two with red caps are conservative, and the two with dark purple caps are moderate.
Squarely in the center - a moderate Independent - we find Fred. We can and should talk with religious conservatives, especially those of us who grew up in that culture and speak the language. And as some commenters noted yesterday, some will listen. But we can't expect to reach many, and while we shouldn't write off any voters, we need Fred to have a popular majority.
Note: This is not about "moving to the center." This is about moving the center to us.
So how do we do that? I'll offer three Do's and one Don't:
Do: Visible activism in our communities
As we've discussed before in Morning Feature, the internet is an excellent forum for fundraising - witness our donations to Haiti - and a good forum for organizing and educating each other. But this isn't a good forum for progressive activism. As 2009 should have taught us, writing to each other online and calling/emailing our elected leaders is not enough to sustain our enthusiasm, move policy, and grow our movement. To do those, we progressives must get more active in our local Democratic Party groups and in our communities:
- The more visibly active we are, the more cognitive dissonance helps to sustain our enthusiasm. As we discussed yesterday many in the Tea Party GOP are politically active through church groups. That regular, face-to-face engagement works to build and sustain their enthusiasm, even when their party doesn't deliver everything they want, and it often hasn't. They still turn out. So must we.
- The more visibly active we are, the more our elected leaders pay attention. They know that people engaged in visible activism are more likely to vote, and as between a box full of messages and a street or town hall meeting full of activists, they'll pay more attention to the people they can see than words on message pads. If "the squeaky wheel gets the grease," faces squeak louder than words.
- A 1994 study found that Independents like Fred are prone to bandwagoning, supporting the group they perceive as likely to win. That is not irrational; it seems to be rooted in our impulse, as members of a social species, to align with the dominant subgroup. If we want Fred to jump on our bandwagon, he has to see us. Fred trusts faces he can see more than words on a screen. If he sees only the faces of the Tea Party GOP, he's likely to conclude they're the most numerous and likely to win.
Do: Simple, moral, emotional messaging
As Dr. George Lakoff discusses in The Political Mind and Dr. Drew Westen in The Political Brain, we respond most strongly to simple messages grounded in moral, emotionally compelling frames. Last week I offered a progressive manifesto in three sentences:
- People matter more than profits. Fred and his family of three live on a median income. They are one bad life event away from dire poverty, and Fred knows that. Profits are not inherently evil, but if our economy doesn't work for Fred and the people he knows, then our economy doesn't work ... period.
- The earth is our home, not our trash can. Fred thinks the threat of climate change is real. While Fred thinks we must fix the economy first, he thinks the two issues are linked and that new sources of energy are a better long-term investment than oil, gas, and coal. Even GOP message maven Frank Luntz admits that.
- We need good government for both #1 and #2. Fred knows that we can't rely on private industry to put people over profits, or to treat the earth as our home and not our trash can. And despite the conservative talking points, a recent Public Strategies poll shows Fred still trusts government more than corporations to do the right thing.
We can frame arguments for any progressive issue based on those three core messages. And Fred already agrees with all three.
Do: Support programs that help Fred and people he knows
While calling and emailing our elected leaders to support progressive policies is not enough, we still need to do it. We should also support the most progressive candidates who can win elections in our communities, districts, and states. Still, many of the programs that would help Fred most are begun by local government or local non-profit groups. We progressives must be active in those, not only with donations but in face-to-face events. Again, Fred trusts faces he can see more than words on a computer screen. We must be the faces Fred thinks of when he hears the words "Democratic Party."
Because while messaging is important, it's not enough. We progressives promise results - programs that help Fred and the people he knows - and Fred will and should expect us to deliver. If we don't deliver, all the clever messaging in the world won't help, as the GOP learned in 2006 and 2008. They didn't lose because they forgot how to package slick messages, but because they didn't govern well. We progressives must make sure the Democratic Party does govern well, from your community on up, or Fred will lose patience with us ... and quickly.
Don't: Become the Church of Progressivism
It's almost impossible for a secular political movement to build the same fervor we see among the devoutly religious. As we discussed yesterday, many in the Tea Party GOP begin learning their religio-political ideas in church nurseries, and for many that religious-based instruction continues up through graduate school. It is consistently reinforced in church services and church-based business, civic, and recreation groups, and in a religious media that includes news and entertainment TV, radio stations, music, magazines, and books. It offers comprehensive, self-contained narratives of our world, history, law, and politics.
We progressive Democrats can't hope to match that. What's more, we shouldn't try. Their comprehensive, self-contained narrative is based on belief. We need to be about narratives that work in the real world, and that requires empiricism. Here's the difference in a nutshell:
- Belief - If the data don't fit your narrative, suspect the data.
- Empiricism - If the data don't fit your narrative, suspect the narrative.
Conservatism can't govern well because its narratives are based on belief, and when the data don't fit the narrative conservatives suspect the data. (E.g.: Bill O'Reilly and Brad Blakeman challenging the R2K/DK poll results.) Conservatism got away with belief-based bad governing for years by saying "government is the problem," thus Fred should expect government to screw up anything it touches.
We progressives don't allow ourselves that excuse. We tell Fred government can work, so we must make it work. That requires a healthy self-skepticism rarely found in religion. As progressives we must always remain willing to test our narratives against real world experience, and we can't stubbornly cling to narratives that don't work. And we all have some. They feel like they should work. They make sense and fit our values. But when we test them against real world data ... they don't.
When that happens, we can't try to hide it, nor can we give in to despair. We must be willing to examine why our narratives didn't work, then get busy trying to fix them or develop new narratives that will. And we have to let Fred see us do that, so he knows we know we've made a mistake and we're working to fix it.
That may not generate the fervor of religion, but it does more for Fred. And that's how we win.
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Speaking of losing, the Janitor Professor of Astrology looked up at the stars again. Maybe he needs a new faculty position....
Aquarius - The Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster wants their meatballs back.
Pisces - We believe you believe it, but we don't believe it. Or so we believe.
Aries - Don't put much faith in ... oops. Too late. Here's a safety pin.
Taurus - Be louder and prouder, but please wait til the neighbors wake up.
Gemini - You are a model progressive, if "model" means "a small sized copy."
Cancer - Don't tell jokes about short people. Geminis hate that.
Leo - The truth will set you free. But finding that key might help too.
Virgo - Your beliefs are orderly and logical, but you could sort them by date too.
Libra - If everyone were like you, the Fredling could draw just one stick figure.
Scorpio - But you'd rebel, just to not be like the Libras. Crayon monger.
Sagittarius - Most of the people who believe that don't know you. So it's your fault.
Capricorn - Holding a picket sign in the shower is not visible activism. And your webcam is blurry.
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Happy Friday!