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By: Inoljt, http://mypolitikal.com/

Over the next few posts I will be previewing a select few competitive Senate elections. These posts will focus less on individual personalities and more on overarching state dynamics – what parts of the state vote Democratic, swing, and vote Republican.

These states will be mainly Democratic strongholds, rather than swing states, because this election cycle is the first in many in which they have been competitive. Another opportunity for analyzing these places will probably not occur for a while.

I am specifically talking about Illinois, New York, and California. Each state has different qualities: some are moving Democratic, parts of others are moving Republican. Versus Massachusetts, Democrats have several advantages. Big cities are a major factor in all three states, and high percentages of minorities live there. These compose the core of Mr. Obama’s strength.

On the other hand, Republicans have one distinct advantage over Massachusetts. In Massachusetts there were only two types of voters: Democrats and Independents. Illinois, New York, and California all have another type of voter. These are commonly called "Republicans."

More below.

In comparison to my series analyzing swing states, I hope to keep these posts relatively short and simple. First off will be Illinois, where Congressman Mark Kirk looks set to run an extremely close race with Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias.

Originally posted to Inoljt on Mon Feb 08, 2010 at 11:00 PM PST.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChicDemago, jwinIL14

    http://mypolitikal.com/

    by Inoljt on Mon Feb 08, 2010 at 11:00:09 PM PST

  •  Thanks for the analysis (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jwinIL14

    you provide in your link.  I enjoyed your piece on Illinois projections but don't agree with it all.  For example, you show a map of Illinois with all of the counties surrounding Chicago in blue (Democratic win) and later state:

    First the good news [for Republicans]: unlike other solidly blue states, the Chicago suburbs still vote Republican.

    The once Republican suburbs have been voting Democratic in recent elections.  Even traditionally deep-red DuPage County--a once Republican bastion--is now voting blue.

    I wish to make clear that in no way am I implying that you are biased or a troll. Presently Illinois is blue for all state offices and U.S. Senators.  Though 2010 and the race you analyze present several challenges, Giannoulias will be our next senator.

    •  Oh I don't take offense at all (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      jwinIL14

      Thanks very much for the comment.

      As for the suburbs - I think their Democratic vote in 2008 was an artifact of Obama's candidacy, much like Arkansas and Bill Clinton. I think they are bluing, but they would have still voted Republican if, for instance, Hillary Clinton ran.

      I'd be happy for them to prove me wrong this year.

      http://mypolitikal.com/

      by Inoljt on Mon Feb 08, 2010 at 11:54:52 PM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not so certain of your (0+ / 0-)

        your hypothesis.  Suburban counties voted even more overwhelmingly for Dick Durbin in 2008 than they did for Obama.  In 2006 they also contributed to the Democratic state-wide office sweep.  Democrats have also been picking up suburban congressional districts.  Check out DuPage County and Will County returns, for example.  Lake County (above Chicago) has trended Democratic for quite some time.  Moderate Republicans once did well in the suburbs.  Now that the GOP has divorced itself from reality and moderation, GOOPERS suburban performance is not so good.

  •  Nothing is ever short & simple in Illinois. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ChicDemago

    * sigh *

    " It's shocking what Republicans will do to avoid being the 2012 presidential nominee."

    by jwinIL14 on Mon Feb 08, 2010 at 11:40:12 PM PST

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