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Well, time for try select the second democrat from Massachusetts. Surely this is the more important diary about Massachusetts in this series (but I wait too with interest the diaries about Romney a potential presidential runner).

The death of E Kennedy last summer leave Massachusetts without the more important political reference for the state in last 40 years. Is a very hard work replace him. In the last diary here, J Kerry appear as the new first democrat from Massachusetts. It is logical, he is a very important political figure and know since long time by the citizens of Massachusetts.

But seems much more difficult replace J Kerry as the second democrat from Massachusetts. For this position they are not high differences is is the more important diary about Massachusetts in this series (but I wait between some possible candidates, and Democratic Party failed still finding the right person. I think the bigger problem for Coakley's failure was she can not satisfy the prospects of the people what was finding the T Kennedy successor and see excesive difference between T Kennedy and M Coakley.

I think we can have interesting results today. The people vote right here habitually.

I remember and update from previous diaries the structure of this series.

RANK OF BLUE STATES FROM HIGHER TO LOWER LEVEL OF ELECTED REPUBLICANS

  1. Maine: 2/2 Senate.
  1. Nevada: 1/2 Senate. Governor. 1/3 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Iowa: 1/2 Senate. 2/5 House. 2 Statewide officers.
  1. Massachusetts: 1/2 Senate.
  1. New Hampshire: 1/2 Senate.
  1. New Jersey: Governor. 5/13 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Minnesota: Governor. 3/8 House. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. California: Governor. 19/53 House. Lieutenant Governor (*). 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Vermont: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Hawaii: Governor. Lieutenant Governor.
  1. Connecticut: Governor. Lieutenant Governor. (Without include J Lieberman).
  1. Rhode Island: Governor.
  1. Delaware: 1/1 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Michigan: 7/15 House. 2 Statewide Officers. MI Senate majority.
  1. Wisconsin: 3/8 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Pennsylvania: 7/19 House. Lieutenant Governor. 1 Statewide Officer. PA Senate majority.
  1. Illinois: 7/19 House.
  1. Washington: 3/9 House. 2 Statewide Officers.
  1. Colorado: 2/7 House. 1 Statewide Officer.
  1. Oregon: 1/5 House.
  1. Maryland: 1/8 House.
  1. New York: 2/29 House.
  1. New Mexico: 1 Statewide Officer.

(*): Without take office still.

The links in the state names go to my diaries about gerrymander redistricting (allways finding the limits) for these states in Swing State Project.

My way for redistrict New York is recogniced as winner in Swing State Project Contest for this state with nice words. Thanks to SSP.

For national level: With a consolidated blue ticket we can look to republican side.

REPUBLICAN POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES FROM BLUE STATES BY SERIOUSNESS.

  1. Timothy James Pawlenty: MN 1960 Governor of MN 03-11.
  1. George Elmer Pataki: NY 1945 Governor of NY 95-06.
  1. Willard Mitt Romney: MI MA 1947 Governor of MA 03-07. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 94.
  1. Rudolph William Louis Giuliani: NY 1944 Mayor of New York 94-01. Lost for President 08. Lost for Senate 00.
  1. Gary Earl Johnson: ND NM 1953 Governor of New Mexico 95-03.
  1. Richard John Santorum: VA PA 1958 Senator from PA 95-07. USHRep 91-95. Lost for Senate 06.

All they special level politic targets for democrats.

But we will see all they in his home state and we will have better reference about they.

For state level:

DEMOCRATS IN THE CABINET OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

Still no-one.

DEMOCRATS OVER THE FIRST VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

MA1: John Forbes Kerry: CO MA 1943 D Presidential Nominee 04. Senator from Massachusetts 85- . Lieutenant Governor of MA 83-85. Lost for President 04. Lost for House 72.
NH1: Cynthia Jeanne Shaheen: MO NH 1947 Senator from New Hampshire 09- . Governor of New Hampshire 97-03. Lost for senate 02.
NJ1: Robert Menendez: NY NJ 1954 Senator from New Jersey 06- . USHRep 93-06. Lost for Mayor of Union City 82.
IA1: Thomas Richard Harkin: IA 1939 Senator from Iowa 85- . USHRep 75-85. Lost for President 92. Lost for House 72.
NV1: Harry Mason Reid: NV 1939 Senator from Nevada 87- . USHRep 83-87. Lieutenant Governor of NV 71-75. Lost for Senate 74.
ME1: Chellie M Pingree: MN ME 1955 USHRep 09- . Lost for Senate 02.

THE FIRST DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

In a 0-10 scale, like this:

--- 00.000 ---
Safe Republican
--- 01.429 ---
Likely Republican
--- 02.857 ---
Leans Republican
--- 04.286 ---
Toss-Up
--- 05.714 ---
Leans Democratic
--- 07.142 ---
Likely Democratic
--- 08.571 ---
Safe Democratic
--- 10.000 ---

ME: C Pingree (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 25 votes = 03.267 => Leans Republican
IA: T Harkin (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 12 votes = 03.333 => Leans Republican
ME: C Pingree (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.529 => Leans Republican
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 14 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
NV: H Reid (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 14 votes = 05.357 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 13 votes = 05.385 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 13 votes = 05.513 => Toss-Up
IA: T Harkin (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 18 votes = 06.574 => Leans Democratic
NJ: R Menendez (D) vs C Smith (R) after 23 votes = 06.594 => Leans Democratic
ME: C Pingree (D) vs P Mills (R) after 17 votes = 06.765 => Leans Democratic

REPUBLICANS OVER THE FIRST DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. O Snowe
  1. C Grassley
  1. S Collins
  1. B Krolicki

All they special level politic targets for democrats.

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

NH2: John H Lynch: MA NH 1952 Governor of New Hampshire 05- .
NV2: Frankie Sue Del Papa: NV 1949 NV Secretary of State 87-91. NV Attorney General 91-03.
IA2: Thomas James Vilsack: PA IA 1950 Secretary of Agriculture 09- . Governor of Iowa 99-07. Lost for President 08.
ME2: John Elias Baldacci: ME 1955 Governor of ME 03-11. USHRep 95-03.
NJ2: Richard James Codey: NJ 1946 Governor of New Jersey 04-06. Acting governor of New Jersey 02-02. President of NJ Senate 02-08 08-10.
MA2: Today

THE SECOND DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

IA: T Vilsack (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 14 votes = 03.452 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Sandoval (R) after 11 votes = 03.485 => Leans Republican
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 32 votes = 03.649 => Leans Republican
NJ: R Codey (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 14 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 07 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs P Mills (R) after 07 votes = 04.286 => Toss-Up
ME: J Baldacci (D) vs S Collins (R) after 21 votes = 04.365 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs C Smith (R) after 17 votes = 04,608 => Toss-Up
IA: T Vilsack (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 20 votes = 04.667 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 11 votes = 04.697 => Toss-Up
NJ: R Codey (D) vs C Christie (R) after 15 votes = 05.111 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 11 votes = 05.303 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NH: J Lynch (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 16 votes = 05.313 => Toss-Up
NV: F Del Papa (D) vs D Heller (R) after 08 votes = 06.319 => Leans Democratic

REPUBLICANS OVER THE SECOND DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. B Sandoval
  1. F LoBiondo
  1. P Mills
  1. C Smith
  1. T Branstad
  1. R Frelinghuysen

All they special level politic targets for democrats.

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN EVERY BLUE STATE.

IA3: Chester John Culver: DC IA 1966 Governor 07- . IA Secretary of State 99-07.
ME3: Michael Herman Michaud: ME 1955 USHRep 03- . President ME Senate 00-02.
NH3: Paul Hodes: NY NH 1951 USHRep 07- . Lost for House 04.
NV3: Robert Joseph Miller: IL NV 1945 Governor of Nevada 89-99. Lieutenant Governor of NV 87-89.
NJ3: William Warren Bradley: MO NJ 1943 Senator from New Jersey 79-97. Lost for President 00.
MA3:

THE THIRD DEMOCRAT VS PROMINENT REPUBLICANS FROM HIS/HER HOME STATE.

NV: R J Miller (D) vs D Heller (R) after 08 votes = 02.708 => Likely Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs F LoBiondo (R) after 11 votes = 03.030 => Leans Republican
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Gregg (R) after 15 votes = 03.222 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller vs B Sandoval (R) after 12 votes = 03.333 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs S Collins (R) after 17 votes = 03.431 => Leans Republican
ME: M Michaud (D) vs O Snowe (R) after 28 votes = 03.571 => Leans Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs C Smith (R) after 11 votes = 03.636 => Leans Republican
IA: C Culver (D) vs C Grassley (R) after 25 votes = 03.600 => Leans Republican
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs R Frelinghuysen (R) after 11 votes = 03.788 => Leans Repub
ME: M Michaud (D) vs P Mills (R) after 07 votes = 04.048 => Leans Republican
NV: R J Miller (D) vs B Krolicki (R) after 08 votes = 04.167 => Leans Republican
IA: C Culver (D) vs T Branstad (R) after 21 votes = 04.524 => Toss-Up
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs C Christie (R) after 19 votes = 04.649 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs S Merrill (R) after 07 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs K Ayotte (R) after 14 votes = 04.762 => Toss-Up
ME: M Michaud (D) vs J McKernan (R) after 07 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
NJ: W Bradley (D) vs S Garrett (R) after 11 votes = 05.000 => Toss-Up
IA: C Culver (D) vs D Vaudt (R) after 14 votes = 05.119 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller (D) vs S Lowden (R) after 11 votes = 05.152 => Toss-Up
NV: R J Miller vs J Ensign (R) after 21 votes = 05.238 => Toss-Up
NH: P Hodes (D) vs J Sununu (R) after 13 votes = 05.769 => Leans Democratic
NV: R J Miller vs J Gibbons (R) after 17 votes = 06.765 => Leans Democratic
NH: P Hodes (D) vs C Benson (R) after 14 votes = 06.786 => Leans Democratic
MA: Third democrat (D) vs S Brown (R)
MA: Third democrat (D) vs M Romney (R)
MA: Third democrat (D) vs C Baker (R)

REPUBLICANS OVER THE THIRD DEMOCRAT IN HIS/HER HOME STATE

  1. D Heller
  1. J Gregg
  1. C Christie (vulnerable)
  1. S Merrill (vulnerable)
  1. K Ayotte (vulnerable)

All they first level politic targets for democrats

For mid level races including EVEN or D+ districts in purple or red states:

2010 MID LEVEL RACES WHAT NEED MORE WORK IN DEMOCRATIC SIDE

I wish bold the next races because I think need more work. They are races in favourable constituencies for fight hard and not lose.

First remember is not assured still good democratic candidate for Lieutenant Governor in IL, NY, CT, MI, MN, PA and CO. All they will run in the ticket for governor and lieutenant governor.

Races with elected democratic incumbent.
NY-01 EVEN Poor R challenger with good fundraising. Little disadvantage fundraising.
NH-01 EVEN Decent R challenger with decent fundraising. Bad poll.
OH-15 D+1 Decent R challenger with good fundraising. Rematch.
OH-01 D+1 Strong R challenger with good fundraising. Rematch vs former inc. Bad poll.
PA-11 D+4 Weak D incumbent. Rematch.

Races with nominated incumbent, with party switcher since last election, or Open races.
CT-SS D+7 I have not data about fundraising.
IL-10 D+6 Poor R candidates with good fundraising.
VT-LG D+13 Decent R candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
VT-SS D+13 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
MA-ST D+12 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
MA-SA D+12 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
NY-AG D+12 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
RI-AG D+11 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
RI-ST D+11 Poor D candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
CA-IC D+8 Poor D candidates with good fundraising, Poor R cand w good f, Little disad f.
PA-07 D+3 Poor D candidates with good fundraising, Poor R cand w good f, Little disad f.
IL-ST D+9 Poor D candidates, Decent R candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
MI-SS D+5 Poor D candidates, Decent R candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
CA-AG D+8 Poor D candidates with good fundraising, Decent R candidates with good fu.
NH-02 D+3 Strong R candidates with decent fundraising. Bad poll.
VT-SA D+13 Poor D candidates, Strong R candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
IL-SC D+9 Poor D candidates, Strong R candidates, I have not data about fundraising.
MI-AG D+5 Poor D candidates, Strong R candidates, I have not data about fundraising.

Races with elected republican incumbent.
LA-02 D+25 High D disadvantage fundraising.
DE-SA D+7 Poor D candidates, I have not dat about fundraising.

For every group the last race is the more dangerous what I include.

If you see this diary after days, you can see the last actualization of this serie in my last diary. All the polls continue open to new votes still. The results of polls of previous diaries are updated too in the last diary specially the diaries with lower number of votes. For see my last diary click in "abgin's diary".

Originally posted to abgin on Sun Feb 14, 2010 at 07:53 AM PST.

Poll

Without J Kerry (D) in the list, choose the best, the second democrat in Massachusetts.

23%3 votes
0%0 votes
7%1 votes
7%1 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
30%4 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
30%4 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes
0%0 votes

| 13 votes | Vote | Results

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