I shouldn't have to (but I guess I must) state that a space race is not a bad thing, if its purpose is the ultimate liberation of mankind from the fate of one small world in the cosmic ocean. This is because everybody wins if anybody wins, meaning that the race itself is the purpose, and not the victory of any given participant.
Today's space race is precisely that: A race among a variety of organizations, public and private, business and academic, political and technical, to achieve something truly new in human history - a spacefaring civilization. Not a civilization that occasionally sends a select few on rare, brief, and highly expensive excursions, but one whose society is regularly extended out into the far realms and grows where it may.
Dramatis Personae
Here are all the major players in this new Grand Adventure:
Now, I should make clear not all of these organizations are competing against each other - some are cooperating on various projects. But then it's also true that teams on one project may be competitors in another domain. In other words, the real complexity of human society is ever so slowly creeping into the domain of space exploration and development, much as we would hope. And for every one of those shown above, there are at least two others who haven't yet risen to prominence, but at least have the potential to become a player.
I will break this up into frontiers, in ascending order of altitude1:
Table of Contents
I. Spaceports
II. Suborbital
III. Orbital (launch, craft)
IV. Orbital (destinations)
V. The Moon
VI. Inner Solar System
VII. Outer Solar System
VIII. Interstellar
I. Spaceports
The three most important spaceports to watch in coming years are Spaceport America in New Mexico, Mojave Air & Space Port in California, and the Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) in Virginia.
- Spaceport America
Here is the runway under construction:
And here is what the runway and the terminal hangar building are supposed to look like upon completion:
Technical Status: The road to the spaceport, the runway, and the terminal hangar facility are all under construction. Virgin Galactic is the anchor tenant.
Funding Status: Fully funded.
Domain: Testing & ground operations
Note: Spaceport America is the world's first purpose-build commercial spaceport, and is already operational for vertical-launch rockets. UP Aerospace launches there.
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- Mojave Air & Space Port
Technical Status: Fully operational air and space port. For many years a hub of experimental aviation and rocketry, now it hosts several companies on the forefront of space innovation. Particularly, Scaled Composites, who is building the spacecraft for Virgin Galactic; XCOR Aerospace; and Masten Space Systems. It may have some disadvantages to Spaceport America since it is organized around the convenience of air traffic.
Funding Status: Don't know, but the California budget situation is unlikely to be helpful.
Domain: Testing & ground operations
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- Mid-Atlantic Regional Spaceport (MARS) (commonly known as "Wallops," as it's on Wallops Island)
Technical Status: Operational, and growing.
Funding Status: Good. The Virginia state government appears to consider it a worthwhile investment.
Domain: Ground operations
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II. Suborbital
A. Manned
Players2: Virgin Galactic, XCOR Aerospace, Blue Origin3, and Space Adventures.
Vehicles:
- G-Force One (Zero Gravity Corporation, a subsidiary of Space Adventures)
Technical Status: Commercially operational.
Funding Status: Unknown, but appears good.
Domain: Atmospheric parabolae, with return to point of origin4. It's a modified commercial jetliner.
Note: I contacted Zero G to inquire about how many tickets they've sold so far, and never got a response. I don't know if that's to be expected (i.e., if they would consider it competitive information), or if they're just dicks.
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- The Lynx MK-15 (XCOR Aerospace)
Technical Status: Engine and scale-model aerodynamics testing.
Funding Status: Incomplete, but looking good.
Domain: Initially atmospheric, but will breach space with Mark 2. Horizontal takeoff, horizontal landing.
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- New Shepard (Blue Origin)
Goddard test vehicle (no renderings of New Shepard have been released):
Technical Status6: A few flight tests of Goddard. Second test vehicle under construction.
Funding Status: Unlimited.
Domain: Exoatmospheric, with return to point of origin. Vertical takeoff, vertical landing.
Note: Blue Origin's website has some nice pics of their campus in Kent, Washington that I hadn't seen before.
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- The WhiteKnightTwo / SpaceShipTwo system (Virgin Galactic)
Technical Status: Constructed, in ground testing.
Funding Status: Superb.
Domain: Exoatmospheric, with return to point of origin. Horizontal takeoff, horizontal landing.
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B. Payload7
Players: UP Aerospace, Masten Space Systems, and Armadillo Aerospace.
- SpaceLoft XL (UP Aerospace)
Technical Status: Commercially operational.
Funding Status: Unknown, but presumably good as they plan to double their number of launches this year.
Domain: Exoatmospheric sounding rocket.
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- Xoie, Foxie, and Xogdor (Masten Space Systems, vehicle variants)
Technical Status: Working on aeroshells and structure for high-altitude flights. Expect to begin limited commercial operations this year at lower altitudes.
Funding Status: After winning over a million dollars in the Northrup Grumman Lunar Lander Challenge, quite good in the near future.
Domain: Atmospheric or exoatmospheric. Vertical takeoff and landing.
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- Mod, and Quad (Armadillo Aerospace)
Technical Status: Low-altitude flight testing and aeroshell development.
Funding Status: Apparently good.
Domain: Atmospheric or exoatmospheric. Vertical takeoff and landing.
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III. Orbital (launch, craft)
A. Manned
Players8: CNSA, ISRO, SpaceX, Boeing/Bigelow, Sierra Nevada Corporation / ULA.
Vehicles:
- Long March 2F rocket + Shenzhou spacecraft (CNSA)
Technical Status: Operational. Multiple flights completed.
Funding Status: Probably good, although unknowable - China is a Byzantine police state, of course. But their government appears strongly committed to the national space program.
Domain: Low Earth Orbit (LEO).
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- Falcon 9 rocket + Dragon spacecraft (SpaceX)
Technical Status: Complete, on the launch pad awaiting first window for unmanned demonstration flight.
Funding Status: Superb.
Domain: LEO.
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- Atlas V 401 rocket + (Unnamed capsule) (Boeing / ULA / Bigelow Aerospace)
Technical Status: Atlas V is operational with multiple unmanned flights, but still needs to be man-rated (whatever that means). Early design stages of the capsule.
Funding Status: Good. Recently was awarded $18 million from NASA to develop the concept.
Domain: LEO.
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- (TBD) (ISRO)
One of ISRO's existing rockets, the GSLV, which may or may not be involved in the manned program:
ISRO recently announced its intention to pursue manned orbital spaceflight capability, with first flight in the 2016 timeframe. Such an announcement is meaningless from a commercial firm, but has tremendous weight from a government space agency since failure to ultimately deliver would be politically embarrassing.
Technical Status: Early planning stages
Funding Status: TBD
Domain: LEO.
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- Atlas V 402 rocket + Dream Chaser spacecraft (ULA / Sierra Nevada Corporation)
Technical Status: Some design heritage and NASA wind tunnel tests based on the HL-20 lifting body. Atlas V 431 is operational, but must still be man-rated.
Funding Status: Good, for the time being. Was recently awarded $20 million by NASA to pursue the concept. Unclear if they have outside resources other than NASA.
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B. Payload
Players: ULA, SpaceX, Orbital Sciences, JAXA, ESA
Vehicles:
- Atlas & Delta rocket families (ULA)
Technical Status: Operational, but price leaves something to be desired. Perhaps commercial operations will yield greater economies of scale.
Funding Status: With all the military welfare ULA draws for milsat and recon launches, probably won't become an issue.
Domain: LEO, Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit (GTO).
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- Falcon 1 & Falcon 9 rockets, and the cargo version of the Dragon spacecraft (SpaceX)
Technical Status: Falcon 1 has flown successfully twice, and as stated above, Falcon 9 and unmanned Dragon are on the launch pad.
Funding Status: Superb. The launch manifests for both vehicles are filling out quite nicely, and SpaceX already has a 9-figure ISS cargo delivery contract with NASA.
Domain: Falcon 1 - LEO. Falcon 9 - LEO, GTO.
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- H-II rocket + H-II Transfer Vehicle (HTV) (JAXA)
Technical Status: H-II is operational with several successful flights. HTV has had one mission so far, which successfully delivered cargo to the ISS.
Funding Status: Apparently adequate.
Domain: H-II rocket - LEO, GTO. HTV - LEO.
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- Ariane 5 rocket + Automated Transfer Vehicle (ATV) (ESA)
Technical Status: Ariane 5 has had several successful flights, and the ATV has successfully delivered cargo to the ISS on one occasion so far. Feasibility studies are being undertaken to provide ATV with a reentry capsule, which would be a preliminary requirement for rigging it into a manned spacecraft. However, no specific decision to pursue independent manned spaceflight has been made by ESA.
Funding Status: Apparently adequate.
Domain: Ariane 5 - LEO, GTO. ATV - LEO.
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- Taurus II + Cygnus cargo craft
Technical Status: Still under development (the Orbital website isn't very specific). Broke ground on the launch pad at MARS this past Summer.
Funding Status: Good - has a large ISS cargo delivery contract from NASA.
Domain: LEO
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IV. Orbital destinations
Players: Bigelow Aerospace, the ISS alliance (NASA, ESA, Roscosmos, JAXA, etc.), and CNSA
Destinations:
- International Space Station (NASA, ESA, JAXA, Roscosmos, etc.)
Technical Status: Approaching completion.
Funding Status: Fully funded, with operations guaranteed for at least another decade.
Domain: LEO Destination
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- Sundancer & BA 330 inflatable space habitat modules (Bigelow Aerospace), and possible combinations of them.
Genesis prototypes currently in LEO:
Sundancer rendering:
BA 330 rendering:
Possible module complexes:
Technical Status: Two inflated prototypes in orbit, totally successful. Work on ground-based test-beds apparently continues as Bigelow waits for a man-rated rocket capable of delivering people to LEO on a regular basis. Falcon 9 may fit the bill, but Bigelow is also pursuing collaboration with Boeing/ULA for use of the Atlas V.
Funding Status: Quite good. Robert Bigelow is not a billionaire, but he appears to have substantial resources in reserve over and above what he has already invested.
Domain: LEO Destinations. Long-term possibility of expanding beyond LEO.
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V. The Moon
A. Manned
Players: NASA9, CNSA
Description: NASA remains committed to the idea of manned lunar missions, although its specific plans are in a state of flux. CNSA also appears aimed at manned lunar exploration, although it has made no firm commitments, and may be substantially more motivated to pursue it than NASA since they have not yet "planted the flag" as the United States has. Neither agency currently has specific vehicles under development for the purpose of lunar missions, but that can change in the near future.
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B. Robotic
Players: NASA, ESA, JAXA, ISRO, CNSA, Google Lunar X-Prize (GLXP) competitors10.
From the Kaguya (JAXA) probe:
Launch of Chandraayan-1 (ISRO):
From Chandrayaan-1:
Rover wheels designed by GLXP team FREDNET:
Description: NASA, ESA, JAXA, ISRO, and CNSA are planning or have already sent robotic probes to the Moon, although there have been no landers in recent decades, which is the basis of the Google Lunar X-Prize: A $30 million competition for a private organization to land a mobile robotic probe on the Moon and perform various tasks.
The deadline for the competition is 2014. None of the teams in the competition have yet completed their surface craft, nor have any (i.e., the rocket companies they are contracting with) completed the rocket stages for lunar transport and landing. Progress has been discouragingly slow, IMHO. Yet several of the projects are quite serious, and have brought substantial resources to bear, so hope is alive.
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VI. Inner Solar System
A. Manned
Players: None
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B. Robotic
Players: NASA, ESA, JAXA
Description: Europe and the United States presently have the only space programs engaged in robotic missions to other planets. Although the Soviet Union had sent probes to Venus and Mars, its successor states in Roscosmos have not continued those programs. NASA is the only program operating on the Martian surface, although ESA conducts the orbital Mars Express mission. ESA has also contributed deep space and solar observatories, the Venus Express orbiter, and collaborates with NASA on the Hubble Space Telescope, among other projects. The vast majority of robotic operations in the solar system beyond Earth orbit are NASA missions. JAXA has successfully sent a probe to a near-Earth asteroid.
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VII. Outer Solar System
A. Manned
Players: None
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B. Robotic
Players: NASA, ESA
Taken from Huygens on descent through Titan's atmosphere:
Description: The most current missions in this category are Cassini/Huygens (a NASA/ESA collaboration) and the New Horizons probe to the Kuiper Belt beyond Pluto (NASA). Cassini is in orbit about Saturn, and has been managed for the past six years by NASA; the Huygens probe which it carried and delivered to the surface of Titan was an ESA mission. ESA therefore carries the distinction of being the only program to have landed on the Moon of another planet. NASA remains the only program to have visited Uranus and Neptune. There are, sadly, no current plans to return.
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VIII. Interstellar
A. Manned
Players: None
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B. Robotic
Players: NASA
Description: Voyagers 1 & 2 are still in operation, and are approaching the edge of the solar system where the Sun's magnetic influence terminates. They are expected to reach that boundary - the heliopause - within the next few years, at which time they will be able to directly measure the interstellar medium and become the first human interstellar spacecraft. They have already passed the "termination shock" that marks the beginning of the inner edge of the boundary, which will take them several years to cross.
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Footnotes
1: I realize that the orbital/suborbital distinction is not a matter of altitude but of velocity. Nevertheless, for practical purposes we can use "suborbital" as shorthand for low-altitude spaceflight and parabolic operations within the atmosphere.
2: A "player" is defined to be an organization that is expanding operations, innovating, and pursuing an ambitious agenda in a given domain. Other organizations may already be involved in it, but are not boldly pursuing it, or they may have longer-term plans but are not there yet.
3: Blue Origin's logo in the image at top is the Victorian globe with the two turtles and the caption "Gradatim Ferociter."
4: As opposed to "point-to-point" suborbital travel, which no one is yet pursuing, although several firms have long term plans.
5: "Mark 1" = the first version of the Lynx vehicle, that will not reach the official boundary of space, but will still be capable of providing significant periods of black sky and weightlessness.
6: Blue Origin is secretive, so the publicly available information on the status of their program is rarely up-to-date.
7: A long list of companies offer suborbital payload launches, and many others have plans in that direction, but the Players listed are those who are actually innovating and breaking ground.
8: NASA will be contracting commercial rockets to fly astronauts to the International Space Station. It remains to be determined what its plans are for transporting them beyond Earth orbit. Also, Roscosmos has a very large proportion of current orbital launches, but does not appear to have a rigorous program of ambitious innovation.
9: NASA's disposition to manned lunar expeditions is presently in flux.
10: I am not confident that any current Google Lunar X-Prize team will succeed within the time limit of the competition (2014), so I did not list any of them in the logo field above.