Our big poll last month of self-identified Republicans had a presidential trial heat (MoE 2%):
Palin 16
Romney 11
Cheney 10
Gingrich 7
Huckabee 7
Pawlenty 3
Paul 2
Thune 2
Undecided 42
Sure, Palin led the bunch, but at 16 percent, it's not particularly dominant territory for a Republican that dominates the media narratives.
CPAC confirmed Palin's poor 2012 standing, with 2,395 attendees voting in a straw poll (a conference record):
Paul 31
Romney 22
Palin 7
Pawlenty 6
Pence 5
Huckabee 4
Paul clearly has the support of his hyper-engaged, but tiny, corps of supporters. Yet his strong support at CPAC doesn't translate to the broader Republican electorate, getting just 2 percent in our poll. He's going to be a real headache for the GOP heading into 2012. As of the rest, only Romney showed a pulse in both polls. Palin? Not a lot of starbursts at CPAC.
So Palin clearly has something else in common with John McCain, aside from sharing a presidential ticket in 2008 -- they both have far larger constituencies in the media, than they do in real life.