If you are wondering where the Wrap was in its normal Friday night slot, I'd love to be able to spin a tale about a wild Friday evening. Actually, it was a simpler, and less fascinating, cause: the computer I normally write the Wrap on was being most uncooperative.
And, with that, there is a ton of political news to peruse and numbers to crunch, so let's get on with it in this special weekend edition of the Wrap....
THE U.S. SENATE
DE-Sen: Ras Shows Coons Gaining on Castle (In Their Polling)
Prognosticators like the Cook Report gave the GOP a near-lock on the U.S. Senate seat in Delaware, largely on the heels of a post-Biden announcement Rasmussen poll showing Republican Mike Castle with a nearly thirty-point lead over Democratic challenger Chris Coons. One month later, Ras finds the margin similar to the DK/R2K poll released the same day: they have Mike Castle at 53%, with Chris Coons at 32% (our poll was 53-35). This represents an eight-point net movement in Coons' direction, when compared to a Ras poll from just four weeks ago.
NV-Sen: Lowden's Family Largesse Under Fire
Sue Lowden has gradually, over the past couple of months, adopted the mantle of the GOP frontrunner in the primary to name a challenger to embattled Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. That status might take a slight hit, however, after a pretty brutal revelation from the Las Vegas Sun. It turns out that Lowden, who owns a corporation that runs a hotel/casino in Laughlin, Nevada, laid off over 100 workers during 2009 while at the same time paying out a $200,000 bonus to...her husband Paul. The article also noted that the Lowden's combined salary was just shy of a million dollars last year, not exactly the kind of thing that will endear the tea party elements in Nevada to her.
NC-Sen: New Numbers In Both Primary and General Elex
Two different pollsters released numbers at the end of the week on the potentially competitive U.S. Senate race pitting freshman Republican Richard Burr against a trio of prospective Democratic challengers. In that Democratic primary, GOP pollsters Civitas find that undecided is lapping the field: 77% of voters do not currently express a preference. Of those who do, Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (14%) has a lead over attorney Kenneth Lewis (5%) and former state legislator Cal Cunningham (4%). Among Democratic voters, Marshall's lead expands slightly (17-5-5).
Meanwhile, Rasmussen polls the general, and puts together some very Ras-esque numbers in the race. They have Richard Burr leading Marshall by sixteen (50-34) and Cunningham by twenty-two (51-29). This is a pretty serious departure from most recent polls, which had Burr leading, but with less than 50% of the vote and with a considerably tighter margin.
UT-Sen: Merrill Cook Ready To Make A Comeback
What a week of blessings it has been for those of us who love entertaining politicos. First Jim Traficant graced us with his re-emergence on the political scene, and now he has been followed by volatile Utah Republican Merrill Cook, who announced on Thursday that he will challenge incumbent GOP Senator Bob Bennett. Cook was known, in his days in the House, as one of the most ill-tempered members of the Congress. His rationale for running against Bennett is based on the teabagger-esque meme that Bennett is too tight with Wall Street, and not tight enough with Main Street.
THE U.S. HOUSE
AZ-03: Phoenix Mayor Decides Against 2010 House Bid
While Democratic attorney Jon Hulburd continues to build a pretty formidable campaign apparatus in the GOP-leaning open seat in the Phoenix suburbs, he learned that his most formidable potential Democratic opponent will not be a candidate in 2010. Phil Gordon, the mayor of Phoenix, had been sizing up a potential House bid (either as a Democrat or an Independent). His decision to stand down essentially cedes the nomination to Hulburd, who can now sit back and watch the growing GOP primary field pummel each other into submission (and, remember, Arizona has a relatively late primary).
NM-01/NM-02/NM-03: Dems In Varying Degrees of Peril in New Mexico
PPP went into the Land of Enchantment this week, and got some pretty interesting data back. Earlier this week, the Wrap covered the gubernatorial race (where Democrat Diane Denish is a slight favorite for election over GOPer Pete Domenici Jr.). Late in the week, the PPP team added all three House seats in the state. The one Democrat trailing arguably beats expectations the most: 2nd district freshman Harry Teague. He trails former Rep. Steve Pearce, but only by two points (43-41). Given how toxic the climate is alleged to be right now for Democrats, particularly in rural areas, this is actually a surprisingly strong performance for Teague. Meanwhile, the biggest surprise (negatively speaking) for Dems might be the surprising weakness for Democrat Ben Ray Lujan in the historically Democratic in NM-03: he only leads little-known Republican Tom Mullins by six points (42-36). As Crisitunity at Swing State Project points out, however, a lot of the most Dem-friendly turf here is pretty difficult to poll. Meanwhile, in the Albuquerque-based 1st district, Democrat Martin Heinrich scores an "as expected" (maybe a smidgen better than as-expected), leading Republican Jon Barela by nine (45-36).
SD-AL: Rasmussen Gives Dem Incumbent Re-Election Edge
It will almost certainly be her toughest re-election effort since getting elected back in 2004, but even normally GOP-friendly Rasmussen gives Democratic Congresswoman Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin a narrow edge for re-election in this tough campaign cycle. Against the most well-known GOP aspirant, SD Secretary of State Chris Nelson, Herseth-Sandlin still manages a seven-point lead (45-38). She also leads two other Congressional hopefuls (state legislators Kristi Noem and Blake Curd) by double digits.
THE GUBERNATORIAL RACES
MD-Gov: Ras Puts O'Malley Near 50% in Rematch With Ehrlich
The new Rasmussen poll out of the state of Maryland falls pretty much in line with most other recent polls in the state. They have incumbent Democratic Governor Martin O'Malley staked to a six-point lead over his likely challenger, former GOP Governor Robert Ehrlich (49-43). Ehrlich has not formally declared, but this is a little different than the recent Ras attempts (see: Dino Rossi, Tommy Thompson) to recruit GOP candidates via polling, since Ehrlich had long been rumored to take the plunge.
MA-Gov: Patrick Continues To Lead Split Opposition
A new Suffolk poll is out, and it continues to show a trend that has developed over the past few months. The Massachusetts electorate continues to have a fairly dim assessment of incumbent Democratic Governor Deval Patrick, yet he continues to lead in his bid for re-election, benefitting from the anti-Patrick vote being split two ways. With health care executive Charlie Baker, Patrick opens up an eight-point lead, taking 33% to 25% for Baker and 23% for Democrat-turned-Independent Tim Cahill. If 2006 Indie nominee Christy Mihos wins the GOP nod (which is looking less likely, he trails Baker by 30 in the GOP primary), Patrick's lead is still eight points, but a new candidate slides into the second spot, as Patrick (34%) leads Cahill (26%), with Mihos a distant third (19%). The link above is worth clicking for the commentary from SSP's Crisitunity, who manages a pretty strong takedown of Suffolk pollster David Paleologos and his comments regarding this poll, which were oddly dismissive of Governor Patrick despite his lead.
NV-Gov: M-D Poll Confirms Gibbons' Political Resurrection
Is Nevada's embattled Republican Governor, Jim Gibbons, rising from the political graveyard? A poll last week, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, had Gibbons within striking distance of current GOP frontrunner Brian Sandoval in a prospective primary battle. Mason-Dixon, polling on behalf of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, confirms those numbers, showing Gibbons gaining on Sandoval, and close to an even-money bet in the general. In that GOP primary, Sandoval leads Gibbons by just seven points (37-30), with N. Las Vegas Mayor Mike Montandon well back at 9%. Last month, M-D had Sandoval up by 16 points. Meanwhile, in a general election test against likely Democratic nominee Rory Reid, Reid only leads Gibbons now by a mere four points (42-38). If Sandoval manages to hang onto the GOP nod, he is a big favorite over the Democrat (51-29).
SD-Gov: Dems Surprisingly Competitive In McCain '08 State
In a bit of a head-turner from the Rasmussen team, Democratic state legislator Scott Heideprem is very much in the game with his bid to be the next governor of South Dakota. While he trails the prospective GOP frontrunner, Lt. Governor Dennis Daugaard, he manages to remain within single digits (41-32). Meanwhile, against two conservative state legislators that could sneak through the primary, Heideprem actually manages narrow leads, edging out both Dave Knudson (34-31) and Gordon Howie (37-29).